We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League fixture with our Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest prediction and preview. Will Jürgen Klopp’s side extend their long unbeaten run at Anfield?
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest: The Quick Hits
- Liverpool are predicted to overcome Nottingham Forest on Sunday, winning 70.8% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 16 home Premier League matches (13 wins, three draws) since losing 2-1 to Leeds United on 29 October 2022, exactly a year ago on Sunday.
- Dominik Szoboszlai has created 21 chances in the Premier League this season, the most by any player in their first nine league games for Liverpool since Harry Kewell in 2003 (22).
Match Preview
Anfield has always been one of the Premier League’s most daunting destinations, and it’s Nottingham Forest who have the unenviable task of attempting to breach the Liverpool fortress on Sunday, with Jürgen Klopp’s side looking to maintain their outstanding run of home form.
Liverpool made it four wins from as many Premier League outings at Anfield in last week’s Merseyside derby, with Mohamed Salah’s second-half brace seeing off a spirited Everton side. Sunday’s game comes exactly one year after Liverpool’s last home league defeat, with the Reds winning 13 and drawing three at Anfield since losing 2-1 to Leeds United on 29 October 2022.
Liverpool ended Matchday 9 as they started it, only three points adrift of pacesetters Tottenham, but the Reds were given a stern examination by Everton. Klopp’s side required a penalty to make the breakthrough, even after the Toffees had Ashley Young sent off, and they were later fortunate to see Ibrahima Konaté avoid a second booking of his own.
There have been five red cards brandished in Liverpool’s nine Premier League matches this campaign (four for Liverpool – against Bournemouth, Newcastle and Tottenham), though Young was the first outfielder to be dismissed against the Reds in league action since Manchester United’s Paul Pogba in October 2021. The most recent Liverpool player to see red, Curtis Jones, will complete his three-match ban this weekend.
With Jones suspended, Klopp fielded a midfield comprised entirely of summer signings last week, with Ryan Gravenberch joining Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai in Liverpool’s lineup. Szoboszlai has particularly impressed since joining from RB Leipzig, creating a team-high 21 Premier League chances this season, the most any player has managed in their first nine league outings for Liverpool since Harry Kewell in 2003 (22), but the Hungarian is yet to register an assist.
Liverpool received a fitness boost this week as Cody Gakpo returned during Thursday’s 5-1 UEFA Europa League hammering of Toulouse, but Andy Robertson is sidelined after undergoing shoulder surgery, so Konstantinos Tsimikas should deputise at left-back again.
Further forward, Salah is looking to maintain a remarkable run of home form, having either scored or assisted in each of his last 13 Premier League appearances at Anfield (14 goals, three assists). Overall, he has 116 goal contributions (84 goals, 32 assists) in 115 home games for the Reds in the competition, putting him four short of Steven Gerrard’s club record (120 – 69 goals, 51 assists).
Steve Cooper is aiming to stop Salah, and the Forest boss will be demanding a response from his team after they squandered a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2 with Luton Town last Saturday. Forest are winless in five league games, though four of those have finished level, with their only defeat coming against Manchester City.
Chris Wood looked like being the match-winner with his second-half brace last week, netting multiple goals in a league game for the first time since April 2021, but Luton hit back through Chiedozie Ogbene and Elijah Adebayo, who held off Joe Worrall to lash in a stoppage-time leveller.
Forest have dropped 32 points from winning positions in the Premier League since returning to the division last August, more than any other team. Cooper’s men have already given up two-goal leads on two occasions this term, against Luton and in August’s 3-2 defeat to Manchester United.
While Forest must tighten up at the back, Wood could score in consecutive Premier League appearances for the first time since enjoying a three-game scoring run between April and May 2021 – if he gets the nod. First-choice striker Taiwo Awoniyi is nearing fitness after suffering a groin injury earlier this month, but Callum Hudson-Odoi and Danilo are out.
Milan loanee Divock Origi will miss out on an Anfield return after sustaining a hip injury. Origi scored 22 goals in 107 Premier League appearances for Liverpool – 73 as a substitute – as well as securing cult-hero status by netting in their 2019 UEFA Champions League final win over Tottenham.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head
The omens aren’t good for Forest ahead of their trip to Merseyside, with Liverpool unbeaten in their last 24 home league games against them (19 wins, five draws) since suffering a 2-0 loss in February 1969.
Neutrals could expect to be entertained, though, with 23 goals being scored in the last four meetings between these teams at Anfield, at an average of 5.8 per game. Liverpool have helped themselves to 16 of those goals, with Forest scoring seven.
The teams served up a five-goal thriller when they last met at Anfield in April. Goals from Neco Williams and Morgan Gibbs-White cancelled out Diogo Jota’s double, but Salah hit the Reds’ winner 20 minutes from time.
Liverpool were on the receiving end of an upset at the City Ground in the teams’ first meeting of 2022-23, with Awoniyi netting the only goal of the game against his former club last October.
Indeed, the away side has never been victorious in 12 all-time Premier League meetings between Liverpool and Forest. Aston Villa versus Queens Park Rangers is the only fixture in the competition’s history to be played more often without ever seeing an away win (14 times).
Recent Form
After slipping up on the road to Tottenham and Brighton, Liverpool returned to home comforts, beating Everton 2-0 in last week’s Merseyside derby. Klopp’s side boast an imperious record on home soil, losing just one of their last 46 Premier League games at Anfield (35 wins, 10 draws), with Sunday’s match offering them the chance to extend their unbeaten home run past the 12-month mark.
The Reds have also gone unbeaten through their last 40 home league games against teams whose names start with the letter ‘N’, winning 33 and drawing seven since losing 1-0 to Norwich City in April 1994.
Forest’s task appears a monumental one, given their own poor away record. Cooper’s men overcame Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in September, but that was just their second away win since returning to the Premier League last August (six draws, 16 defeats). Since the Chelsea win, Nottingham Forest have lost to Man City and drawn with Crystal Palace in their two away games.
They would surely settle for a point on Sunday. Forest did not record back-to-back draws in their first 44 games back in the Premier League between August 2022 and September 2023, but they have drawn three successive matches this month.
Having been held by Brentford, Crystal Palace and Luton, they could draw four successive league games for the first time since doing so as a Championship club in January 2016.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Given Liverpool’s excellent home record, it is no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make them firm favourites for this contest.
Liverpool triumphed in 70.8% of our 10,000 match simulations conducted before kick-off, with Forest claiming a surprise win in 10.1% and 19.1% finishing level.
The supercomputer still has Liverpool as second favourites for the title in England’s top tier, with the Reds’ 11.7% chance of topping the pile putting them ahead of Arsenal (10%) but behind champions Man City (75.4%).
Forest, meanwhile, were relegated in 33.8% of our season simulations before a ball was kicked, but a return of 10 points from their first nine matches has seen their chances of the drop reduced to just 6.4%.
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