While Nottingham Forest have made a solid start to the Premier League season, promoted Burnley are yet to pick up a point. We look ahead to Monday’s meeting at the City Ground with our Nottingham Forest vs Burnley prediction and preview.
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley: The Quick Hits
- Nottingham Forest are seen as favourites when they host Burnley, with the Opta supercomputer prediction giving their chance of victory at 40.6%.
- Burnley could lose their first four matches of a league campaign for just the third time, having previously done so as a top-flight club in 1927-28 and in the second tier in 2002-03.
- Forest striker Taiwo Awoniyi has scored or assisted in each of his last eight Premier League appearances, teeing up Anthony Elanga’s winner at Chelsea last time out.
Match Preview
The fifth matchday of the Premier League season is rounded off by Monday’s meeting between two teams in contrasting form, as Steve Cooper’s buoyant Nottingham Forest host struggling Burnley at the City Ground.
Forest went into the international break ninth in the table after Anthony Elanga’s goal clinched a memorable 1-0 win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. That was just their second away victory since returning to the top flight, after Cooper’s men earned a league-low eight points on their travels last season.
Only once have Forest bettered their return of six points at this stage of a Premier League campaign, picking up 10 points from four games in 1994-95, when they finished third. Throughout Premier League history, only 16 teams have been relegated after taking at least six points from their first four matches.
There is every reason to believe Forest might avoid another flirtation with the drop this term. For a start, they have one of the league’s in-form strikers; Taiwo Awoniyi has either scored or assisted in eight consecutive Premier League games, while his 15 top-flight goal involvements since the start of last season (13 goals, two assists) is more than any other Forest player.
Forest have been accused of a scattergun approach to recruitment, but there may also be a few gems among the seven (yes, seven) signings they made on transfer deadline day. Former PSV midfielder Ibrahim Sangaré could make his debut here, as could Nicolás Domínguez, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Milan loanee Divock Origi. Elanga, however, is an injury doubt after withdrawing from the Sweden squad during the international window.
Monday’s match should feature a clash of styles, with Forest catching opponents out with a direct brand of counter-attacking football. They have averaged the fewest passes per sequence (2.37) of any Premier League team this season, while only West Ham (2.29) have moved the ball upfield at a faster rate than Forest’s 2.21 metres per second.
Burnley, meanwhile, have averaged 11.7 sequences of 10 or more open-play passes per game, having recorded just 2.9 per match when they last graced the Premier League in 2021-22.
Though Vincent Kompany’s team earned plaudits for their front-foot style last season, they may need to be more pragmatic after experiencing a baptism of fire following promotion from the Championship.
Burnley were thrashed 5-2 by Tottenham before the international break, with Son Heung-min scoring a hat-trick. The postponement of a Matchday 2 trip to Luton Town means Burnley have opened the season with three home games but are yet to earn a point.
The Clarets could now lose their first four games of a league campaign for only the third time, having done so as a top-flight club in 1927-28 and in the second tier in 2002-03. They did avoid relegation in both of those seasons, however, which might be a welcome omen for Kompany.
Striker Lyle Foster could be key if they are to hoist themselves out of danger. Having scored in back-to-back Premier League games, he could become just the third South African player to net on three successive outings in the competition, after Benni McCarthy and Steven Pienaar.
Midfielder Mike Trésor joined on deadline day and could make his debut, while Josh Brownhill is pushing for a start after scoring from the bench against Tottenham. Anass Zaroury, meanwhile, is back from suspension following his red card against Manchester City on Matchday 1.
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Head-to-Head
These sides have already met once at the City Ground this season, with Burnley eliminating Forest from the EFL Cup on 30 August, courtesy of Zeki Amdouni’s last-minute winner.
However, this will be their first league meeting since February 2016, when Burnley edged a Championship fixture 1-0 at Turf Moor en route to capturing the title.
You have to go back to February 1971 for the last top-flight fixture between the clubs. That game was played at the City Ground, with a goal from Ian Storey-Moore handing Forest a 1-0 win.
Recent Form
Forest have made their home a fortress lately, beating Brighton, Southampton, Arsenal and Sheffield United in their past four league games at the City Ground.
They last won more consecutive top-flight home games between April and August 1991 – a run of seven straight victories.
Burnley, meanwhile, are looking to avoid suffering four defeats on the bounce, having lost 3-0 to Man City, 3-1 to Aston Villa and 5-2 to Spurs since their return to the big time.
Only one team has ever started a Premier League season with four successive losses while conceding three or more goals in each game. West Ham did so in 2010-11, going on to finish bottom.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of the weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides:
Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Forest favourites for Monday’s match, giving them a 40.7% chance of earning a fifth successive home league win.
However, the model is not completely writing Burnley off, giving the Clarets a 29.9% probability of victory and a 29.4% likelihood of escaping with a point.
Forest’s promising start has seen their chances of relegation drop to just 8.9%, but things look less encouraging for Burnley. Across 10,000 season simulations ahead of kick-off, they were relegated in 46.4% of scenarios.
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