It begins Thursday with an NFC North battle for first place, and it ends Monday in New York with Seattle visiting the Giants. For those games and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our predictive model and come up with NFL Week 4 predictions down to the projected scores.
Each week throughout the 2023 NFL season, the supercomputer has something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner like the Miami Dolphins visiting the Buffalo Bills for AFC East supremacy or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through the model’s NFL picks, boldly dropping score predictions for each.
We’ll start with that AFC East meeting. Coming off a 10-touchdown outburst against the Denver Broncos, the Dolphins aren’t going to drop 70 on the Bills, who have won their last two games by a combined 62 points. So despite the historic scoring spree last week, the supercomputer likes the Bills, giving them a 56.7% chance of winning in regulation and equaling Miami at the top of the division with a 3-1 record.
Both the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens enter their AFC North clash at 2-1. Cleveland is looking to go 3-1 or better for just the fourth time since the original Browns left for Baltimore after the 1995 season. They got their record book back upon returning to the league through expansion in 1999. Reincarnation is apparently a thing in the NFL. The Ravens, meanwhile, have reached that 3-1 mark 13 times since then. We like the Browns to come out on top this weekend with a 23-17 win.
For our fantasy projections this week, only one defense is expected to earn double-digit points and that’s the Eagles with 12.5 projected points. It’s no surprise that we give Philadelphia a 72.4% chance of beating Washington in regulation. We have the Eagles as 13-point favorites with a 27-14 win over their NFC East rivals.
For the Monday night matchup, the Seahawks will travel east to take on the Giants in what we expect to be a close one. The all-time series is tied at 10 wins a piece, and we like New York to take the lead with a 21-20 win.
Last and certainly least, we’ll touch on the game featuring the Bears and Broncos. Denver became the first NFL team since the merger to allow 70 points in a game last week, and despite that we still think they will earn a road win in Chicago as we give them a 54.2% chance of winning in regulation on Sunday. Recall the Bears were down 34-0 in the first half last week and have lost their three games by an average of 19.7 points. The Broncos? A mere 17.7.
Here’s a look at all 16 NFL Week 4 predictions, with Jordan Love besting Jared Goff, C.J. Stroud’s development continuing with a six-point home win over the Steelers, and the 49ers remaining unbeaten:
NFL Week 4 Predicted Scores
Thursday night:
- Green Bay Packers 21, Detroit Lions 20
Sunday:
- Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Atlanta Falcons 17 (in London)
- Buffalo Bills 27, Miami Dolphins 24 (Check out a deep-dive on this game here)
- Minnesota Vikings 24, Carolina Panthers 24 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Vikings an advantage)
- Denver Broncos 24, Chicago Bears 17
- Cleveland Browns 23, Baltimore Ravens 17 (Read the complete preview of this game here)
- Houston Texans 27, Pittsburgh Steelers 21
- Indianapolis Colts 21, Los Angeles Rams 21 (Win probability weighted by the point spread gives the Colts an advantage)
- New Orleans Saints 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24
- Philadelphia Eagles 27, Washington Commanders 14
- Cincinnati Bengals 21, Tennessee Titans 17
- Los Angeles Chargers 24, Las Vegas Raiders 23 (Want more on this game? Right this way)
- Dallas Cowboys 28, New England Patriots 21
- San Francisco 49ers 27, Arizona Cardinals 14
Sunday night:
- Kansas City Chiefs 27, New York Jets 17
Monday night:
- New York Giants 21, Seattle Seahawks 20
Don’t forget to check out every team’s chances at making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl this season in our season-long predictions. We also have weekly fantasy projections and rankings, then use our sit/start comparison tool to help you with your lineup decisions.
We’ll be back next week, when some of you may be interested in the NFC clash between the 49ers and the Cowboys, others the Jets vs. the Broncos. The supercomputer won’t judge. It only predicts.