Ange Postecoglou has yet to taste defeat in the Premier League as Tottenham head coach and is looking to maintain his strong start when they visit Burnley on Saturday. We look ahead to the game at Turf Moor with our Burnley vs Tottenham prediction and preview.
Burnley vs Tottenham: Quick Hits
- The Opta Supercomputer expects Tottenham’s positive start to the season to continue, giving them a 47.1% chance of victory over Burnley.
- Burnley could lose their opening three matches of a top-flight campaign for the fourth time, having previously done so in 1920-21, 1927-28 (when they lost their first five) and 2020-21.
- With his former club Celtic, Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou won his last nine league matches against promoted teams by an aggregate score of 31-7.
The Ange Postecoglou era is in full swing at Tottenham and it’s fair to say the locals are enjoying it. Spurs sit third in the early-season Premier League table ahead of Saturday’s trip to pointless Burnley and are looking to maintain their unbeaten start to the campaign.
The ‘Ange-ball’ revolution continued last week as Tottenham moved to seven points from three games under the ex-Celtic boss, James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski scoring in a 2-0 win at Bournemouth. This is the third successive season in which Spurs have gone unbeaten through their first three league games, but just the third time they have scored at least two goals in each of their opening three matches of a Premier League campaign.
Postecoglou’s positivity has started to wash away the toxicity of the Antonio Conte era. Spurs are averaging more shots (17.3 to 13.6), expected goals (1.7 to 1.5), passes (583 to 475) and touches in the opposition area (40 to 23.6) per Premier League game than they did in 2022-23, while their average possession share of 61.0% dwarfs last season’s figure of 49.8%.
Spurs did suffer a reality check on Tuesday as they bowed out of the EFL Cup with a penalty-shootout defeat at Fulham, though their disjointed performance could be attributed to Postecoglou’s changes, with captain Son Heung-min joining Maddison, Kulusevski and other regulars on the bench. They should all return to the starting XI at Turf Moor.
Maddison has impressed under Postecoglou, creating more chances (nine), attempting more shots (eight) and playing more passes into the box (41) than any of his teammates across the first three matchdays. Yves Bissouma also looks a player reborn, having carried the ball further (876 metres) than any other Premier League midfielder in 2023-24.
Attempting to spoil Tottenham’s encouraging start are Burnley, who could open a top-flight season with three successive defeats for the fourth time in their history (also 1920-21, 1927-28 and 2020-21) following their losses to Manchester City and Aston Villa at Turf Moor.
With their MD 2 trip to Luton Town being postponed, Vincent Kompany’s Clarets will become just the fourth team to start a Premier League season with three consecutive home games, after Everton, Newcastle United and Wimbledon all did so in 1997-98. A Matty Cash brace ensured there were no home comforts to be found against Villa though who ran out deserved 3-1 winners last weekend.
Although it is still early days, things do not look promising for the promoted trio. Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United are all yet to pick up a point this season, and none of them have led a game at any stage.
If Burnley are to change that on Saturday, Kompany must get the balance right. The Clarets have been busy in the transfer market, but some fans are calling for last season’s Championship-winning heroes Jóhann Gudmundsson, Josh Brownhill and Arijanet Muric to return to the lineup.
Only Ashley Westwood (20) has bettered Gudmundsson’s tally of 19 Premier League assists for Burnley, and the wide man will be eyeing a start after teeing up Lyle Foster’s goal against Villa.
Burnley vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Tottenham have tended to enjoy Premier League games against Burnley, winning 10 of their 16 meetings with the Clarets in the competition and only suffering three defeats. However, all three of those losses have come at Turf Moor, in May 2010, February 2019 and February 2022.
When Burnley last competed in the top flight in 2021-22, the home side won both meetings in this fixture. Harry Kane struck the only goal when the teams met at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in May 2022, exactly a week before the Clarets were relegated.
Ben Mee’s goal downed Tottenham on their last visit to Turf Moor in February 2022, meaning Burnley have the chance to win successive home league games against Spurs on Saturday.
There was a 32-year gap between the two victories when Burnley last accomplished that feat, posting home wins over Tottenham in April 1978 and May 2010.
Following 2-0 victories against Manchester United and Bournemouth, Spurs are looking to win three successive Premier League matches for the first time since a run of four between May and August last year, spanning two different seasons.
Tottenham’s back-to-back clean sheets came after a run of just one shutout in their previous 14 Premier League outings. They last went three league games without conceding in May 2022, a run which included a 1-0 win over Burnley.
Burnley have lost three of their last four league games at Turf Moor, having gone unbeaten through their previous 21 on the ground (15 wins, six draws). The Clarets need a return to last season’s home form as they chase their first points of the campaign.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Burnley vs Tottenham Prediction
In his previous role with Celtic, Postecoglou won his last nine games against promoted teams by an aggregate score of 31-7. The Opta supercomputer expects him to get more joy against the Premier League new boys, giving Tottenham a 47.1% chance of victory.
Burnley are assigned a 24.9% chance of a surprise win, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 28.0%.
Tottenham’s positive start to 2023-24 sees them given a 20.5% chance of a top-four finish – which would bring UEFA Champions League qualification – in the supercomputer’s season predictions, though sixth (13.6%) is their most likely final position.