We look ahead to the first leg of this Championship play-off match at the Stadium of Light with our Sunderland vs Luton prediction and stats preview.
Sunderland vs Luton: Quick Stats
- Luton are the favourites to make it through this play-off tie with the Opta supercomputer (57.1%), but Sunderland the more likely winners of this first leg (38.1%).
- Luton Town ended the season on the longest unbeaten run in the Championship (14 games).
- Sunderland looking to become the first team to be promoted to the Premier League following back-to-back play-off promotions.
Match Preview
Luton Town have reached the Championship play-offs for a second successive season, but the word ‘play-off’ must send a shiver down the spine of their supporters. This is Luton’s fourth qualification into an EFL play-offs, with all three of their previous attempts ending in a semi-final exit – last season against Huddersfield following unsuccessful semi-finals in the 1996-97 third tier and 2016-17 League Two season.
In fact, only Portsmouth (eight) have played more matches in Football League play-offs without winning a single game than Luton (six – D3 L3), with the Hatters losing all three of their play-off games away from home.
But this is a Luton Town side built different. Since appointing Rob Edwards following the exit of Nathan Jones to Southampton, they have averaged two points a game in the Championship and only won fewer points (50) than the two automatically promoted sides (Burnley: 60, Sheffield United: 53) under the former Watford manager. Edwards won the League Two title with Forest Green last season, so has already experienced promotion despite this only being his second season as an EFL manager – back-to-back promotions here would increase his stock even higher. They’ve just achieved their highest placing in the English Football ladder for 31 years, so play-off success wouldn’t come as a shock.
Sunderland snuck in the play-offs on the final day of Championship regular season, with their 3-0 win at Preston North End and Millwall’s 4-3 home loss to Blackburn Rovers. Overall, they spent just 51 days in the top six this season – not the lowest, as Coventry spent just 17 days there – which was lower than relegated Reading (58 days). The Black Cats also won 69 points from their 46 league games, which is the lowest total by a side to reach the Championship play-offs since Leicester City in 2012-13 (68).
The north-east side won promotion to the Championship via the play-offs last season following their victory over Wycombe Wanderers at Wembley Stadium. Should they be promoted via this route this season as well, Sunderland would be the first team to reach the Premier League following back-to-back promotions via the play-offs.
Whilst not winning promotion would be gutting for Sunderland fans, this is a side arguably ahead of schedule. They’ve been building a strong Championship side full of young talent, with Tony Mowbray’s team having the youngest average starting XI age in the competition this season (24 years, 174 days). The last team to win promotion to the Premier League with a younger average were Wolves back in 2008-09 (24 years, 110 days).
Last Meeting
Sunderland 1-1 Luton Town: 18 March 2023 (Championship)
Both Championship games between Luton and Sunderland this season have ended 1-1, with the Hatters opening the scoring before Sunderland equalising late on.
The most recent of these game in March at the Stadium of Light, with substitute Amad Diallo scoring an 86th-minute penalty to cancel out Alfie Doughty’s goal early in the second half.
Doughty’s goal came following a clever free-kick routine but it was one of only seven shots at goal that Luton managed across the whole game. Overall, their shots accumulated 0.36 xG, which was their third-lowest total in a Championship game under Rob Edwards.
Sunderland struggle to create great chances of their own until the fortunate late penalty, which was awarded following Amari Bell’s supposed foul on Diallo in the box. They attempted non-penalty shots worth just 0.54 xG in this match, which was their lowest in a Championship game at home in 2022-23.
Previous Meeting Line-ups:
Sunderland: Anthony Patterson, Trai Hume, Dan Ballard, Danny Batth, Luke O’Nien, Édouard Michut, Daniel Neil, Patrick Roberts, Abdoullah Ba, Jack Clarke, Joe Gelhardt. Used Subs: Lynden Gooch, Amad Diallo, Jewison Bennette, Alex Pritchard, Pierre Ekwah.
Luton Town: Ethan Horvath, Gabriel Osho, Tom Lockyer, Amari’i Bell, Cody Drameh, Marvelous Nakamba, Luke Berry, Alfie Doughty, Allan Campbell, Carlton Morris, Elijah Adebayo. Used Subs: Cauley Woodrow, Jordan Clark, Fred Onyedinma.
Recent Form
Luton Town ended the regular Championship season with an unbeaten run of 14 matches (W8 D6 L0), not losing in the competition since a defeat to league winners Burnley on 18 February (0-1 at Kenilworth Road). That unbeaten run was the longest to end the Championship 2022-23 season, but Sunderland’s nine-game sequence without a defeat (W4 D5 L0) was the next best, alongside Swansea City’s.
Luton sealed their play-off spot back on 19 April with a 1-1 away draw at Reading – one of three draws in their final four matches, with games against Blackburn Rovers and Hull City also ending level following Luton’s 2-1 win over Middlesbrough at home. Luton’s four goals across these games came from either defender Tom Lockyer (two) or Carlton Morris (two).
Only champions Burnley (47) won more points away from home in the Championship in 2022-23 than Luton Town (41), while Vincent Kompany’s side were also the only club to keep more clean sheets overall (21) than the Hatters in the league this season (20).
Luton’s away form will concern Sunderland, especially with the Black Cats having relatively poor home form across the 2022-23 regular season. Fifteen of the 24 clubs won more points than Sunderland (30) from their 23 home matches, including relegated Reading (38). Only three clubs – Wigan (35), QPR (35) and Blackpool (34) conceded more goals at home than Sunderland did at the Stadium of Light in 2022-23 (33).
Sunderland were only one of seven Championship clubs to win more points away than they did at home in 2022-23, with their 39-point tally away from home nine points more than collected at the Stadium of Light (30) – only Stoke City (56.6%) won a higher proportion of their points on the road than Sunderland (56.5%).
Both of the league meetings between Luton and Sunderland in 2022-23 saw the Black Cats come from behind to secure a point, which was a larger trend for both clubs across the season. No side dropped more points from winning positions than Luton Town (27), while only Middlesbrough (26) won more points from losing positions than Sunderland (22).
Key Players
Sunderland: Jack Clarke
When Tottenham Hotspur signed teenage star Jack Clarke from Leeds for a reported fee of £10m in 2019, big things were expected of him. That didn’t materialise at Spurs, but Sunderland managed to pick him up permanently this summer from Spurs following a successful loan spell at the Black Cats in their promotion-winning League One season in 2021-22.
No player had more assists in the Championship this season than winger Clarke (11), while only Coventry’s Viktor Gyökeres (84) created more chances in open play than him (69). He did, however, top the charts outright for chances created (41) and assists (six) following ball carries, with the former Leeds winger one of the trickiest opponents when running with the ball at his feet for any defence in the Championship.
Luton Town: Carlton Morris
Luton striker Carlton Morris has had a brilliant first season at the Hatters following his move from Barnsley in the summer for a reported club record transfer fee. He’s repaid the faith with 20 goals and seven assists in the Championship this season – only Coventry’s Viktor Gyökeres (31) and Middlesbrough’s Chuba Akpom (30) involved in more goals in the competitions across 2022-23.
Morris’ partnership in attack with Elijah Adebayo has become one of the most feared frontlines in the second tier of English football, with the pair scoring nearly half (47%) of Luton’s 57-goal total in the Championship across the regular season. If Morris was to get injured, there would be a big worry where Luton’s goals would come from, with no Hatter other than the front two scoring more than three times in the league this season.
It’s not fair to call Luton a long ball team, but they do utilise the aerial strength of their forwards. Across the 31 Championship forwards to have played at least 2,000 minutes of action in 2022-23, both Morris (9.1) and Adebayo (8.3) were among only seven to have been involved in eight or more aerial duels per 90 minutes on average.
Sunderland vs Luton Prediction
This is expected to be a tight game, but the Opta supercomputer is predicting a home win for Sunderland in the first leg of this Championship play-off semi-final (38.1% chance). Luton, however, have a good chance of taking a lead back to Kenilworth Road for next week’s second leg – their chances of victory are over one-in-three (33.8%).
It’s not all bad news for Luton, as the Opta supercomputer thinks that they are the most likely side to win promotion from the Championship via the play-offs and play in their first Premier League campaign in 2023-24. This wouldn’t be Luton’s first top-flight campaign of course, with the Hatters being relegated from Division One in the season before the inaugural Premier League, in 1991-92.
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