We look ahead to the first leg of Jose Mourinho vs Xabi Alonso in their UEFA Europa League semi-final with our Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction and preview.
Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen: Quick Stats
- Roma are predicted to earn a first-leg victory against Bayer Leverkusen by the Opta supercomputer (49.3% chance of a home win).
- The Giallorossi come into the game without a win in four matches.
- Florian Wirtz has been the most productive and creative player in the UEFA Europa League knockout stage.
Match Preview
Roma boss Jose Mourinho predicted this day would come. Or at least, he knew one of his former players would eventually follow him into management. At a Top Eleven event in 2019, Mourinho was talking about Xabi Alonso, and said: “His father was a manager, so he grew up similar to me. Then he became a player – of course much better than I was… His position on the pitch and his knowledge of the game [was] very high.
“He played in Spain, in England and in Germany, and he was coached by [Pep] Guardiola with Bayern, by myself in Real Madrid, by [Carlo] Ancelotti in Real Madrid, by [Rafael] Benitez in Liverpool… So, I think if you put all this together, Xabi has the conditions to be a very good coach.”
Now head coach of Bayer Leverkusen, Alonso played under Mourinho for three seasons at Real Madrid between 2010 and 2013, playing 151 matches while finishing on the winning side 108 times (72%), racking up 12,548 minutes under the Portuguese coach, second only to Cristiano Ronaldo (14,140) at Madrid.
Alonso has impressed since arriving at the Bundesliga club, taking over when they were struggling in 17th place and guiding them to sixth, as well as to the final four of the Europa League, where he hopes to mastermind passage past a man he admires immensely. Speaking to Sky Sports a few years ago, Alonso told former Liverpool team-mate Jamie Carragher about his first meeting with Mourinho after he got the Real Madrid job, saying: “We met in Los Angeles… and after five minutes, you already know why he’s there and why he’s so good.”
It will presumably annoy Mourinho if there are plenty of goals in the game, which would follow the trend of previous meetings. Roma and Leverkusen have faced each other on four previous occasions in Europe, with both scoring at least once in each match – a total of 19 goals, averaging 4.8 per game – with one win apiece and two draws.
Roma are getting the hang of European competition, with this their third consecutive major European semi-final. They were beaten by Manchester United at this stage of the UEFA Europa League in 2020-21, before overcoming Leicester City in the semi-finals of the UEFA Europa Conference League last season on their way to lifting the inaugural trophy. Including finals, Roma have won 10 of their last 11 major European knockout ties, including the last seven in a row.
This is the fourth time Leverkusen have reached the semi-finals of a major European competition, having won the 1987-88 UEFA Cup, reached the last four of the 1994-95 UEFA Cup, and contested the 2001-02 Champions League final.
If they are to progress against their Italian opponents, Florian Wirtz will likely need to continue his influence in this competition. The 20-year-old has been directly involved in more Europa League goals than any other player since the conclusion of the group stage (five – three goals, two assists), and has created the most chances of any player in the competition during the same period (18).
Last Meeting
Roma 3-2 Bayer Leverkusen: 4 November 2015 (Champions League)
Having been drawn together in the group stage of the 2015-16 Champions League, Roma prepared to host their Bundesliga counterparts on matchday four after an all-action 4-4 draw in Germany on matchday three.
Mohamed Salah gave Roma the lead in the second minute after being released by Edin Dzeko, before the Bosnian made it 2-0 in similar fashion as Radja Nainggolan took advantage of Leverkusen’s high line and the striker slid his finish past Bernd Leno.
Leverkusen were back in it inside the first minute of the second half. Kevin Kampl worked his way into the right side of the Roma penalty area before pulling back for Admir Mehmedi to fire in and halve the deficit. Javier Hernandez levelled when he converted past Wojciech Szczęsny after being played in by Karim Bellarabi.
Rudi Garcia’s Roma were ahead again via a penalty with 10 minutes remaining. Salah was fouled when about to tap into an empty net, leading to Leverkusen captain Omer Toprak being sent off and Miralem Pjanic scoring from the spot to give the Giallorossi the win.
Roma ultimately pipped Leverkusen to second in Group E behind Barcelona, before going out to Real Madrid in the round of 16. Die Werkself went into the Europa League, where they also suffered elimination at the last-16 stage to Villarreal.
Recent Form
Roma are without a win in four Serie A games since their 4-1 second-leg extra-time victory against Feyenoord in the Europa League quarter-finals, with draws against Milan and Monza sandwiched by defeats to Atalanta and Inter as their Champions League qualification hopes diminished.
That run has left them in seventh place, five points behind Inter in fourth with just four games remaining, so winning this competition is increasingly looking like their best route into next season’s Champions League.
Leverkusen have also stumbled a bit since their last European outing, following up a home win against RB Leipzig with a 0-0 draw at Union Berlin, before seeing a 14-game unbeaten run ended in a shock home defeat to Köln last time out.
Alonso’s men look even less likely to qualify for Europe’s top club competition via the league, sitting sixth in the Bundesliga, eight points behind Union in fourth and Freiburg in fifth.
Key Players
Roma: Lorenzo Pellegrini
Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini has been integral to his team’s progress in the Europa League this season, being directly involved in eight goals in the competition, scoring and assisting four times each.
Pellegrini has also been involved in the most open-play shot-ending sequences of any Roma player in the competition this season (51), with 23 shots taken, 12 chances created and 16 involvements in the build-up to a shot.
The 26-year-old has also been producing in Serie A, with four goals and five assists in 29 appearances, while only Paulo Dybala (12) has created more than his 10 big chances. That creativity could come in handy, with Leverkusen conceding five chances inside the penalty area in their 2-1 home defeat to Köln last Friday.
Bayer Leverkusen: Moussa Diaby
Wirtz could end up being the chief tormentor, but in Diaby, Alonso has a weapon who consistently produces for his team. The Frenchman is one of only three players from Europe’s big five leagues to have recorded 10+ goals and 10+ assists in all competitions in each of the last the last three seasons, alongside esteemed company in Paris Saint-Germain star Lionel Messi and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes.
Diaby claimed the assist for Amine Adli’s strike against Köln, and like Pellegrini, is a key player when it comes to creating chances for his team. In the Bundesliga this season, Diaby has created 56 chances and 14 big chances, more than any of his team-mates, though Wirtz is playing catch-up after missing so much of the campaign through injury.
In terms of big chances, only Werder Bremen’s Mitchell Weiser (16) and Köln’s Florian Kainz (15) have created more in the Bundesliga than Diaby this season.
Roma vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction
Mourinho’s men are the favourites to take an advantage to BayArena, with Opta’s supercomputer giving them a 49.3% chance of victory in the first leg. Leverkusen have a 24.6% probability of earning what would be a huge win to put them in the driver’s seat in the tie, while the draw is rated at 26.1%.
It is set up to be a potentially fascinating encounter, where the student will try to overcome the master.
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