We look ahead to the first leg of this titanic UEFA Champions League semi-final with our Real Madrid vs Manchester City prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City: Quick Stats
- Manchester City are predicted to win this match by the Opta supercomputer (43.4% chance).
- If Man City win, they’d become the first English club to win away at Real Madrid in the UCL more than once.
- Expect goals here. The last four matches between Man City and Real Madrid have produced 17 goals at an average of 4.25 a game.
- Bet365 have a new account offer ahead of this UCL tie: Bet £10 and get £30 in bet credits.
Match Preview
The first of two mouth-watering UEFA Champions League semi-final matches this week sees Real Madrid host Manchester City at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium on Tuesday night.
This will be the ninth occasion that these two sides have met in European competition, with the previous head-to-head record equally split (three wins each, two draws). But recent form favours Man City, with the Premier League club winning three of the last four. Real Madrid did win the last, however, with that dramatic 3-1 semi-final second-leg victory last year in Spain.
Before Real’s comeback in that game, it looked like Man City were about to become the first English club to defeat Real Madrid away from home on more than one occasion in the Champions League – they have another chance to break that record in this meeting. Teams from England have won just four of their 18 UCL away games at Real Madrid (D4 L10), with Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all winning there once alongside Man City.
Expect goals in this game. The last four UEFA Champions League games between Real Madrid (eight) and Manchester City (nine) have seen 17 goals scored, at an average of 4.3 per match. While Man City had 31 shots on target compared to Real Madrid’s 17 in those four games, the Spanish side netted with 47% of their attempts on target, compared to 29% for the Citizens.
With goals expected, why not take advantage of bet365’s early pay out offer for teams going two goals ahead in a game? It’s simple: for single bets, if the team you back to win goes two goals ahead at any stage during the match, your win bet is paid out as a winner in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to draw or win the match.
Pep Guardiola hasn’t won the UEFA Champions League as a manager since 2011 with Barcelona, and he comes up against the coach with the most UCL/European Cup titles in history: Carlo Ancelotti (four).
Guardiola will be hoping to avoid more UCL semi-final disappointment in this tie – if his Man City side are knocked out against Los Blancos then he’d join José Mourinho in becoming the coach to lose the joint-most UCL semi-final ties in the history of the competition (six). If he does progress through this tie, Man City’s hopes of a historic treble are still very much alive.
Key Players
Real Madrid: Vinícius Júnior
Real Madrid have many threats to the Man City defence. Of course, they will remember the problems caused by Rodrygo and Karim Benzema in the semi-final tie last season, but arguably a bigger threat to them on Tuesday night will be the exceptional skillset of forward Vinícius Júnior.
Vini Jr is the leading La Liga player across all competitions this season for assists (19), chances created (101) and total goal involvements (41 – 22 goals ,19 assists). In fact, 100 of his 101 chances created have come from open play, showing how dangerous he is to Man City’s chances of making the UCL final.
The main string to his bow is his ability to run at pace with the ball at his feet and seemingly glide past opponents at ease. Across all competitions in 2022-23, no player at a top five European league club has been involved in more shots following a ball carry than the Brazilian at Real Madrid.
He’s attempted 59 shots and created chances for team-mates on 51 occasions following a ball carry this season, while his combined total of 110 is 24 more than his nearest rival Rafael Leão at Milan (86).
Vinícius Júnior has either scored or assisted a goal in each of his last nine competitive appearances (nine assists, three goals), while he’s been involved in a goal in each of his last 10 starts for Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League (seven goals and five assists).
Bet365 are offering odds of 13/5 for him to score anytime, but with his trickery most likely to be up against Kyle Walker in a one-vs-one battle, it’s going to be a long night for the England international – Walker is 5/1 to be booked in the match.
Manchester City: Erling Haaland
What a ridiculous first season at Manchester City Erling Haaland is having. The striker has scored 51 goals in 46 competitive appearances in 2022-23, 15 more than any other player for a club within the top five European leagues this season. He’s averaged a goal every 70 minutes in all competitions, and Man City will be hoping for another on Tuesday night.
Haaland is the leading scorer in the UCL this season, with his 12 goals the most by a player at a Premier League club since Ruud van Nistelrooy with Manchester United in 2002-03. Overall, his goal return in the UEFA Champions League is ridiculous, with 35 goals in 27 games and a goal every 58 minutes – the best of any player in UCL history to have scored at least five goals.
He scored in both legs of their quarter-final win over Bayern Munich to add to the five goals he scored in the second leg win over RB Leipzig. Seven goals in his last three UCL games means that you wouldn’t bet against him scoring another in this match.
Bet365 have him at 20/21 to score on the night, but why not push the boat out and predict him to score multiple goals?
Haaland’s at 9/2 to score twice on Tuesday night, while he’s 20/1 to score a hat-trick – something no player has achieved as an away player against Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in the history of the UCL/European Cup. There’s got to be a first for everything, right?
Recent Form
Manchester City come into this semi-final match in fantastic form. They are unbeaten in 20 competitive matches now (W17 D3), last tasting defeat on 5 February in a 1-0 away loss to Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League.
Their current winning run stands at five games, with this weekend’s 2-1 home win over Leeds United following victories against West Ham, Fulham, Arsenal (all Premier League) and Sheffield United (FA Cup).
Carlo Ancelotti’s Real side won the Copa del Rey final against Osasuna – as expected – this weekend with a 2-1 win thanks to a brace from Rodrygo. Their recent form has been indifferent, however, with poor away defeats at Real Sociedad (2-0) and Girona (4-2) sandwiching a 4-2 home win over Almeria in La Liga.
Real Madrid have won 10 of their last 12 UEFA Champions League games (D1 L1) and each of their last five. They last won six on the bounce in the competition between April 2014 and February 2015 (a run of 10).
The Spanish giants have won nine of their last 10 UCL home games (L1). However, their only defeat during this period came against English opposition (3-2 vs Chelsea in the 2021-22 quarter-final).
Coming into this game, Real Madrid have won each of their last six knockout games in the UEFA Champions League (incl. finals). Only Bayern Munich (a run of seven between February 2020 – March 2021) have enjoyed a longer winning streak in the knockout stages in the competition’s history.
Manchester City have lost just one of their last 16 UEFA Champions League games (W9 D6) and remain unbeaten in 10 since losing 3-1 to Real Madrid at this stage last season.
They have conceded the fewest goals (four) of any side in the Champions League this season, while their opponents’ average expected goals tally per game is 0.78, also the lowest of any side. Only Bayern Munich (seven) have kept more clean sheets than City (six) in the competition this term.
Manchester City reached the semi-final stage of the 2022-23 UEFA Champions League after knocking out Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich in the last round (4-1 on aggregate). They’d previously knocked out another German club in the last 16, with a 8-1 aggregate win over RB Leipzig.
They advanced through Group G with relative ease, remaining unbeaten in their six group matches (W4 D2) and progressing from a group alongside Borussia Dortmund, Sevilla and FC Copenhagen.
Real Madrid have set up this tie with Man City following success against two other Premier League clubs in the knockout stages. They beat Chelsea 4-0 on aggregate in the quarter-finals, following a 6-2 round of 16 aggregate win over Liverpool. They finished top of their group stage, ahead of RB Leipzig, Shakhtar Donetsk and Celtic.
Last Meeting
Real Madrid 3-1 Manchester City: 4 May 2022 (UEFA Champions League)
This tie is a repeat of the semi-final last season, which Real Madrid prevailed 6-5 on aggregate following arguably the most exciting UCL tie of 2021-22.
After winning 4-3 in the first leg at the Etihad Stadium, Man City suffered one of the all-time collapses late on at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in this 3-1 defeat. They were winning 1-0 on the night and 5-3 on aggregate in the 90th minute of the second leg thanks to Riyad Mahrez’s 73rd-minute strike, before Rodrygo had other ideas.
The Brazilian substitute scored twice in 90 seconds to take the game to extra time, before Madrid eventually beat a shell-shocked Man City 3-1 on the night and 6-5 on aggregate after Karim Benzema’s 95th-minute penalty past Ederson after he was fouled by Ruben Dias.
Real Madrid went on to face another Premier League club in the final, defeating Liverpool 1-0 in Paris.
Think Real Madrid can perform another comeback on the night, here? Bet365 are offering odds of 10/1 for Carlo Ancelotti’s side to come from behind to win on Tuesday night at the Bernabéu.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City Prediction
This is a big prediction from the Opta supercomputer, but it believes Manchester City are the favourites to win this match in the Bernabéu against Real Madrid on Tuesday night (43.4%). Our prediction is that Man City do what no English club have done before – beat Real Madrid away from home on multiple occasions.
So often have Man City been the bridesmaid but never the bride in the UCL – could 2022-23 be their season? The Opta supercomputer thinks so, giving Pep Guardiola’s side the highest chance of winning the competition this year at 48.6%, with Real Madrid third favourites (16.9%) behind Inter Milan (22.9%) but ahead of AC Milan (11.5%).
Real Madrid vs Manchester City UCL Squads
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Andriy Lunin, Luis López*, Lucas Cañizares*, Diego Piñeiro*, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão (suspended), David Alaba, Jesús Vallejo, Nacho, Álvaro Odriozola, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Rafel Obrador*, Rafa Marín*, Alvaro Carrillo*, Vinicius Tobias, Marvel*, Toni Kroos, Luka Modrić, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Lucas Vázquez, Aurélien Tchouameni, Dani Ceballos, Mario Martín*, Carlos Dotor*, Sergio Arribas*, Peter*, Óscar Aranda*, Nicolás Paz*, Eden Hazard, Karim Benzema, Marco Asensio, Vinícius Júnior, Rodrygo, Mariano Díaz, Iker Bravo, Álvaro Rodríguez*.
Manchester City: Stefan Ortega, Ederson, Scott Carson, Kyle Walker, Rúben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Aymeric Laporte, Sergio Gómez, Manuel Akanji, Rico Lewis*, Kalvin Phillips, İlkay Gündoğan, Jack Grealish, Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Máximo Perrone, Phil Foden, Cole Palmer*, Erling Haaland, Julián Álvarez.
*Player List B
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