We look ahead to the first leg of this Championship play-off match at the Coventry Building Society Arena with our Coventry vs Middlesbrough prediction and stats preview.
Coventry vs Middlesbrough: Quick Stats
- Coventry the favourites to win the first leg at home (39.6%), but Middlesbrough projected to make it to the final by the Opta supercomputer over the two legs (57.7%).
- This will be the second of three consecutive matches between Coventry and Middlesbrough, after they drew 1-1 on the final day on Teesside.
- The top two scoring Championship players will meet in this match, with Middlesbrough’s Chuba Akpom (28 goals) up against Coventry’s Viktor Gyökeres (21).
Match Preview
Few would have expected Coventry City would make the Championship play-offs this season – even more so after they failed to win any of their opening seven league games in 2022-23 and conceding more than two goals a game in those matches. Ironically, it was a win against Middlesbrough on 1 October that kick-started the Sky Blues’ season – top scorer and much sought-after striker Viktor Gyökeres scoring one of his 21 league goals in the 1-0 win.
Coventry may have finished the regular season in fifth place, but they spent the fewest days inside the top six of any of the four semi-finalists (17). By comparison, play-off rivals Sunderland occupied a top-six spot for 51 days; Luton for 104 days; and Middlesbrough for 130 days (and spare a thought for Blackburn Rovers, who spent 211 days in the top six, only to miss out on the play-offs altogether).
Mark Robins’ side will look for inspiration from Nottingham Forest last season, who spent just 35 days in the top six but still won the play-offs – a current record for the fewest days spent in the top six to win promotion from the Championship (since the rebrand in 2004-05) to the Premier League and one which Coventry would break if they were to succeed in 2022-23.
Robins has helped Coventry rise from League Two to the Championship and can complete the miracle job with promotion to the Premier League this season, if his side win the play-offs. Only Eddie Howe at Bournemouth has done that previously.
Their rise back up the EFL began with a play-off final victory in League Two against Exeter City in 2017-18 – their only Football League play-off campaign before now.
Middlesbrough, in comparison, will be competing in their fifth EFL play-off campaign at Championship level. However, they’ve only been successful in one of those – their first in 1987-88. Since then, they’ve failed to win promotion from the second-tier play-offs in 1990-91, 2014-15 and 2017-18.
One play-off omen in their favour is that the team finishing fourth in the Championship has won promotion via the play-offs in four of the last nine seasons, including two of the last three (Fulham in 2019-20, Nottingham Forest in 2021-22).
Middlesbrough scored 84 league goals this season, their most in a season since 1966-67 (87 in the third tier). 65 of those goals have been scored since Michael Carrick’s first game in October, eight more than any other side has scored in the Championship since then.
Last Meeting
Middlesbrough 1-1 Coventry City: 8 May 2023 (Championship)
Middlesbrough and Coventry met at the Riverside Stadium on the final day of the 2022-23 Championship regular season to mark part one of the trilogy ahead of their play-off semi-final.
Boro were already assured of a play-off spot, but Coventry needed a win or results in games involving Sunderland and Millwall to go their way – as it was, a point was enough for Mark Robins’ side in this match after Millwall’s defeat at home to Blackburn Rovers.
Gustavo Hamer scored the opening goal of the game after 22 minutes, before Middlesbrough’s loanee Cameron Archer equalised in first-half stoppage time.
Previous Meeting Line-ups:
Coventry City: Ben Wilson, Callum Doyle, Kyle McFadzean, Luke McNally, Liam Kelly, Brooke Norton-Cuffy, Jake Bidwell, Josh Eccles, Gustavo Hamer, Viktor Gyökeres, Matt Godden. Used Subs: Jamie Allen
Middlesbrough: Zack Steffen, Ryan Giles, Tommy Smith, Paddy McNair, Darragh Lenihan, Isaiah Jones, Alex Mowatt, Riley McGree, Chuba Akpom, Hayden Hackney, Cameron Archer. Used Subs: Darnell Fisher, Daniel Barlaser, Sonny Finch.
Recent Form
Coventry City found themselves in the Championship play-offs following a late surge. They lost just one of their final 17 games of the league campaign (W8 D8) and across that period, only automatically promoted Burnley (36) and Sheffield United (33) won more points in the Championship than they did (32).
They lost just one of their final nine home games in the regular league season (4-0 to Stoke), with victories against Reading (2-1) and Birmingham City (2-0) to finish on.
Having already qualified for the play-offs, Middlesbrough took their foot off the gas in the final stages of the season and failed to win any of their last three regular season matches – losing 2-1 at Luton, 1-0 at Rotherham and drawing with Coventry at home on the final day.
Their away form in the tail-end of the season might be of concern, though. Boro picked up just four points from their final six Championship away games, with just one win – 3-1 at Swansea City on 11 March.
One of Middlesbrough’s strengths this season was the ability to recover from falling behind. In fact, no team in the Championship won as many points from losing positions as they did (26) – 17 of these coming in away games, which was another league high.
Boro spent 27% of their playing time in a losing position across the 2022-23 Championship regular season, which was more than any of the other top nine sides in the final table.
Key Players
Coventry City: Gustavo Hamer
There’s little doubt that the majority of people would pick 21-goal forward Viktor Gyökeres as Coventry City’s key man – and that’s understandable. However, the engine room of this side is midfielder Gustavo Hamer.
Hamer chipped in with 19 goal involvements in 2022-23, including 10 assists – only Boro’s Ryan Giles and Sunderland’s Jack Clarke (11) managed more. Only four players won more tackles than he did (108), while just six players won possession in the final third of the pitch on more occasions than Hamer’s 30.
No player in the Championship started as many open play passing sequences that led to a shot for their team than Hamer (59) in 2022-23, while only Sheffield United’s Iliman Ndiaye (17) won possession back from the opponent to start passing sequences leading to an open play shot on more occasions than Hamer (16).
Middlesbrough: Chuba Akpom
Only one player scored more Championship goals than Coventry hotshot Gyökeres in 2022-23 and that man was Middlesbrough’s Chuba Akpom. He scored 28 goals in 38 appearances, with an exceptional shot conversion rate of 28.3%.
He scored in 22 of his 38 games in the Championship this season, which was four more than any other player, while his form exploded following the appointment of Michael Carrick.
Under Carrick’s management, Akpom bagged 24 goals in 29 games, with a further two assists – this after previously scoring four goals under Chris Wilder and caretaker Leo Percovich in 10 games across 2022-23 prior to Carrick’s arrival on Teesside.
Should Akpom fail to score, Boro always have Jordan Archer – on loan from Aston Villa – to offer their goalscoring threat. Since his first start for Middlesbrough in January, no player has been involved in more Championship goals than Archer (17: 11 goals and six assists), with his 11 goals coming from just 16 shots on target.
Coventry vs Middlesbrough Prediction
Coventry City are favourites to win the first leg of this Championship play-off tie, with a 39.6% chance of defeating Middlesbrough at the Coventry Building Society Arena on Sunday lunchtime.
Of course, as with all play-off matches, expect this one to be tight. Middlesbrough’s chance of victory is over one-in-three (34.3%) and Michael Carrick’s side are the Opta supercomputer favourites to progress to the final at Wembley overall in this tie (57.7%) with Boro expected to win their home leg.
In fact, Coventry are the overall outsiders to win promotion to the Premier League via the Championship play-offs this season with the Opta supercomputer (18.6%), just behind Sunderland (21.9%). Luton Town are the favourites in our projections (30.8%), just ahead of Middlesbrough’s (28.7%).
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