We look ahead to this Premier League game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London with our Tottenham vs Man United prediction and stats preview.
Tottenham vs Man United: Quick Stats
- Tottenham are predicted to win this match against Man Utd with the Opta supercomputer (42% chance).
- Man United have beaten Spurs 39 times in the Premier League – a record for any team versus an opponent.
- United are looking to win four successive EPL games without conceding for the first time since March 2013.
Match Preview
Manchester United beating Tottenham Hotspur has been a common sight in Premier League history. In fact, their 39 victories against Spurs have not been bettered by any team against any opponent in 31 years of the competition.
The last four encounters in the Premier League have contributed to this tally, with Man Utd’s four-game winning streak against the London club being their longest such run since a seven-game winning run between September 2001 and September 2004 in league competition.
Tottenham’s record at home against the Red Devils isn’t much better, having won just three of their last 21 league home games versus them (D7 L11). All of these came in a row between April 2016 and January 2018. They must have thought their luck was changing. It didn’t.
Tottenham are now on their third manager of the season, following the departure of Antonio Conte in March and then acting head coach Cristian Stellini sacked following a diabolical 6-1 defeat at Newcastle United on Sunday, in which they found themselves 5-0 down after just 21 minutes. Ryan Mason is now in temporary charge of the club for a second spell, after becoming the youngest man to coach a Premier League side in his previous stint in 2020-21.
Erik ten Hag’s side qualified for the FA Cup final at the weekend with their penalty shootout win over Brighton at Wembley. Overall this season, the Dutch manager has led United to 36 wins in all competitions – no other Premier League club in 2022-23 have more… and no, penalty shootout wins don’t count as match wins.
Man Utd have an ever-growing injury list coming into this match, with Bruno Fernandes the latest player to join the physio room queue. He suffered an ankle injury in the FA Cup semi-final win and is doubtful for this game, while defenders Lisandro Martínez, Raphael Varane and Phil Jones, as well as midfielders Scott McTominay and Donny van de Beek will also miss out. Ahead of the line-ups being announced, Spurs will definitely be without Rodrigo Bentancur, Yves Bissouma and Ryan Sessegnon through injury, while Lucas Moura is suspended following his red card versus Everton. Hugo Lloris came off at half-time in the game against Newcastle with a muscle injury and might miss out, meaning Fraser Forster will take his place in goal.
Last Meeting
Manchester United 2-0 Tottenham: 19 October 2022 (Premier League)
Manchester United defeated Spurs 2-0 at Old Trafford in their Premier League meeting back in October, thanks to goals from midfielders Bruno Fernandes and Fred.
Antonio Conte’s side were second best for long periods of the game, allowing Man United to fire in 28 shots. This is the most Spurs have faced in a Premier League game this season – three more than they did in their 6-1 thrashing at Newcastle United last weekend.
While David de Gea kept a clean sheet in a quiet night, Spurs’ goalkeeper Hugo Lloris had to make eight saves in the game overall, which has only been bettered twice across his 361-game Premier League career.
This was Erik ten Hag’s second Premier League win against a side in the top three of the table on the day of the game, as many home wins against sides in the top three as Ole Gunnar Solskjær and Ralf Rangnick managed between them in the competition (two).
Recent Form
Manchester United have won their last three Premier League games and kept a clean sheet in each of them: 1-0 versus Brentford, 2-0 at home to Everton and 2-0 away at Nottingham Forest. They haven’t won four in a row without conceding in league competition since March in the 2012-13 campaign – Sir Alex Ferguson’s last season in charge (six in a row).
They have picked up just seven points in six Premier League away games in 2023 so far, which includes defeats at Arsenal (3-2), Liverpool (7-0) and Newcastle (2-0).
Spurs have lost back-to-back Premier League games against Bournemouth (3-2 at home) and Newcastle (6-1 away) – they haven’t lost three in a row in over a year (February 2022).
Tottenham picked up 23 points in their opening 10 games of the 2022-23 Premier League season (2.30 per game), but since then, they’ve averaged just 1.36 ppg with 30 points collected in 20 games across the competition.
We wouldn’t expect a draw in this game, but if you do, don’t expect it to be a 0-0 draw. None of Tottenham’s last 26 Premier League home games have been drawn (W18 L8), while none of their last 108 at home have finished goalless. It’s the longest run any team has had without a 0-0 draw at home in the competition, while the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (78 games) is one of just three grounds never to see a goalless draw in the Premier League (also Burnden Park and Oakwell with 19 games each).
Key Players
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane
In any normal Premier League season, Harry Kane would be picking up the golden boot for his performances in front of goal in 2022-23. But this is no normal season. Erling Haaland’s 33 goals have eclipsed Kane’s 24.
Kane’s scored six goals in his last six Premier League games, so enters this match in form – one of a handful of Spurs players that can say that.
The England captain has scored 99 Premier League home goals for Tottenham and could be the first player to reach a century of goals in both home and away games in the competition. He’s scored five league goals against Manchester United, but his only one at home came in the final game at White Hart Lane in May 2017.
One negative for Kane is that he’s failed to score in 13 of his 17 appearances against Manchester United in the Premier League, more than against any other opponent in the competition.
Manchester United: Casemiro
Casemiro is the glue that holds the Manchester United midfield together. The Brazilian – signed from Real Madrid in August – has been an integral part of Erik ten Hag’s side this season, despite missing 10 Premier League matches with a good chuck of those through suspension.
In fact, United have lost more Premier League games when he’s been missing (four) than when he’s played (three) this season – this despite featuring in twice the number of games that he’s missed (20 vs. 10).
Of United players to have played at least 1,000 minutes of Premier League action this season, Casemiro has averaged the most tackles (3.7) and interceptions (1.6) per 90 minutes, while only Fred (9.2) has won possession back from opponents more often than him (7.8) on a per-90 basis.
He’s also a key part of building up possession sequences that end in shots within open play. Overall, his 5.4 open-play sequences leading to shots per 90 is below team-mates Bruno Fernandes, Antony, Christian Eriksen and Marcus Rashford, but 3.5 of those are in build-up to those shots, more than any other United player on average.
Tottenham vs Man United Prediction
The Opta supercomputer thinks Tottenham will end their recent poor form with a victory against Manchester United on Thursday night. Ahead of kick-off, it rates Spurs’ chances of picking up all three points at 42%, compared to a 30.1% chance of victory for Man Utd at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. It’s likely to be a close match, with the supercomputer also giving a 27.9% chance of a draw.
Spurs’ chances of finishing in the top four and therefore qualify for the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League are all but over now. The Opta supercomputer gives them just a 1.4% chance of doing so, which is below both Liverpool (8.6%) and Brighton (6.0%), who arrive into this midweek matchday below them in the Premier League table.
Manchester United will almost certainly end in the top four, with the Opta supercomputer rating their chances of doing so at 94.5%. They’ll join both Arsenal and Manchester City, who have confirmed their spots in next season’s UCL. The most likely team to join them in the top four at the end of the season is now Newcastle United (89.3%) based on our projections.
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