It’s been a challenging season for both clubs in the Premier League, but they’ll be hoping to end on a high note. We look ahead to the game at Anfield on Sunday with our Liverpool vs Tottenham prediction and stats preview.
Liverpool vs Tottenham: Quick Stats
- Liverpool are predicted to beat Tottenham by the Opta supercomputer, with a 55.2% chance of victory at Anfield.
- Spurs have won just two of their last 35 league games away at Liverpool and not tasted victory there in 12 years.
- A win in this match would very much strengthen Liverpool’s chances of qualifying for Europe.
Match Preview
The stats won’t make Spurs fans confident ahead of this game – not that they hold the highest confidence rating of any Premier League fanbase now, anyway.
- Spurs have lost more than twice as many Premier League games (30) as they’ve won (14) against Liverpool.
- They’ve won just two of their last 35 league away games at Anfield and not since May 2011.
- Liverpool have lost only one of their last 20 Premier League games versus Spurs and are unbeaten in 10 successive head-to-head meetings.
That would be bad enough to read as a Spurs fan, without the added issue of conceding goals away from home for fun this season. They’ve already conceded 31 on the road in the competition in 2022-23, which is their most since 2008-09 (35).
But this is hardly the toughest Liverpool side they’ve had to face in recent years. Even if they win every one of their remaining six games of the season, they’ll still have 21 points fewer than they finished with last season (92).
Liverpool are tough to beat at Anfield, true – they’ve only lost one of their 15 league games there this season, while it’s also true that they have the ability to force the opposition into capitulating, just ask Bournemouth and Manchester United. However, of their 39 Premier League home goals this season, 16 have come in just those two games.
Despite all this – and yes, we know Jurgen Klopp’s side have got a game in hand – Tottenham head into this game above Liverpool in the table, just like they did in the reverse fixture in November. This is the first time that this has been the case in a Premier League campaign since 2016-17.
Liverpool could hand a first start since October to Luis Díaz but will be missing the trio of Stefan Bajcetic, Naby Keita and Roberto Firmino through injury in this match, while Diogo Jota and Ibrahima Konate also look likely to be sidelined. Spurs will definitely be without Rodrigo Bentancur, Yves Bissouma and Ryan Sessegnon through injury, while Hugo Lloris came off at half-time in last weekend’s thrashing at Newcastle with a muscle injury and might miss out again, meaning Fraser Forster will take his place in goal, like in the midweek draw with Manchester United.
Last Meeting
Tottenham Hotspur 1-2 Liverpool: 6 November 2022 (Premier League)
A first-half Mohamed Salah brace helped Liverpool pick up their first Premier League away win of 2022-23 at the sixth attempt, with this 2-1 victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium back in November.
After winning just two points from their opening five away matches in 2022-23, including defeats to struggling Nottingham Forest and Leeds United, Liverpool more than doubled their away point tally with this win.
Darwin Nunez assisted Salah’s first goal, before an Eric Dier mistake helped the Egyptian score a second past Hugo Lloris, in what was the Frenchman’s 100th successive Premier League game played for Spurs.
Spurs were without the injured Son Heung-min in their line-up, but they still had chances to beat Allison in the match. It was his team-mate Ivan Perisic that looked the most likely, but he hit the woodwork either side of half-time before the influential Harry Kane eventually netted past Alisson after an assist from Dejan Kulusevski in the 70th minute to set up a tense finish.
Recent Form
Liverpool’s recent wins over Leeds United, Nottingham Forest and West Ham mean that they enter this match looking to pick up four consecutive wins for just the second time this season in the Premier League, after last doing so in December. Add the two draws against Chelsea and Arsenal before these three wins, and Liverpool could go six Premier League games unbeaten for the first time in 2022-23 should they avoid defeat at Anfield on Sunday.
The Reds’ home form this season has been solid, with only Man Utd (36) Arsenal (39) and Man City (43) winning more points in home matches across 2022-23. They have lost just one of their last 38 matches at Anfield in league competition, in a run going back to April 2021 (W28 D9 L1), with that defeat coming against Leeds United in October.
Spurs have won just one of their last six Premier League matches (W1 D3 L2), with three different managers taking charge over that spell – Ryan Mason the latest in the midweek 2-2 draw with Man United after the sackings of interim coach Cristian Stellini and Antonio Conte before him.
We’ve come to expect goals in games involving Spurs of late, with 31 being scored in their last seven EPL fixtures at an average of 4.43 per game – unfortunately for the north London side, they’ve conceded more (17) than they have scored (14) in this run.
Spurs’ current five-game winless streak in Premier League away games is their longest since November 2019 on the road, with two draws at relegation-threatened Southampton and Everton alongside defeats to Wolverhampton Wanderers, Leicester City and that 6-1 annihilation at Newcastle United last weekend.
Key Players
Liverpool: Cody Gakpo
Cody Gakpo arrived at Liverpool with high expectations on his 23-year-old shoulders. He’d just come off the back of a very decent 2022 World Cup showing for the Netherlands, where he scored in all three group games, coupled with the fact that he was involved in 30 goals across 26 competitive appearances at PSV Eindhoven in the opening half of 2022-23.
It was a relatively slow start for the Dutch striker at Liverpool, with no goals in his first six appearances, before a derby-day goal against Everton in February was followed up by another strike in the away win at Newcastle five days later.
Overall, he’s scored six goals since his debut at Liverpool – only Mohamed Salah (nine) has scored more for the club in the Premier League across this period. He’s also assisted once, meaning his seven goal involvements in the Premier League are also only below Salah’s 12 and matched by only Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota – two more than Darwin Nunez (five).
Gakpo’s goal at West Ham United in midweek equalised for the Reds after they fell behind before defender Joel Matip eventually scored the winner. Liverpool will be hoping for more of the same from the Dutchman this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane & Son Heung-min
Okay, we’re cheating here by picking two players. But this partnership in attack is what could win Spurs the game on Sunday at Anfield.
Thursday night’s equaliser against Man Utd was the fifth time that Harry Kane and Son Heung-min have combined to assist a goal for the other in the Premier League this season – only four partnerships have been more productive.
Overall, in Premier League history, no partnership has been more productive than this Spurs duo for goals assisted for one another (46), while they also hold the seasonal EPL record thanks to 14 goals assisted for each other in 2020-21.
Seven of the last eight goals that Spurs have scored against Liverpool in the Premier League have come from this duo, too – England captain Kane scoring three and his South Korean team-mate netting four.
Liverpool vs Tottenham Prediction
Liverpool are strong favourites for this match at Anfield on Sunday before kick-off, with the Opta supercomputer giving the home side a 55.2% chance of victory compared to Spurs’ 20%.
A top four finish in the Premier League standings and therefore UEFA Champions League football in 2023-24 looks unlikely for both Liverpool and Tottenham ahead of this weekend’s games – this despite both being strong contenders in pre-season, with Liverpool even the Opta supercomputer’s slight title favourite over Manchester City.
Liverpool are the best outside bet for a top four finish in the league table with the Opta supercomputer at 8.7%, but in reality they are unlikely to dislodge one of Manchester United (94.5%) or Newcastle United (95.5%) from the UCL qualification spots, with Arsenal and Man City already assured it. Spurs have a 0.3% chance of finishing in the top four but have a better chance of finishing in fifth place and securing UEFA Europa League qualification for next season (9.9%), although this chance is still below that of Liverpool (66.8%), but still higher than Aston Villa (5.9%) and Brighton (8.5%).
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