We look ahead to the first leg of this all-Italian UEFA Champions League quarter-final at the San Siro with our AC Milan vs Napoli prediction and preview.
AC Milan vs Napoli: Quick Hits
- Napoli (38.1%) are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites to win against Milan.
- Milan won the last meeting 4-0 in Serie A, but that’s been their only win in their past six matches.
- The last six head-to-head meetings between these two sides have seen the away side prevail.
- Bet365 have a new account offer ahead of this UCL tie.
Match Preview
Just over a week ago, Milan came into the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium and stunned Napoli 4-0. It was a result that no one expected and sent tongues wagging ahead of the sides’ Champions League quarter-final knockout tie. That said, we’ve got to be careful not to overstate its importance.
Napoli are all but Serie A champions. They’ve all but been Serie A champions for months now, so taking their eye off the ball domestically – perhaps in favour of continental success – might be understandable.
Over the longer term, it’s impossible to make the case that Napoli aren’t the best team in Italy right now. They’re the runaway leaders at the top of the table and Luciano Spalletti’s men have won more games (24), scored more goals (66) and have a better goal difference (+45) than any other side. In fact, their goal difference is nearly double that of Lazio in second place, and they’ve scored 18 more goals than any other team in the league.
This will be the first meeting between AC Milan and Napoli in European competition, but the home side have a poor recent record against Napoli in all competitions. Stefano Pioli’s side have won just one of their last nine home games against Napoli in all competitions (D3 L5), with that victory coming in the Coppa Italia quarter-final in 2018-19. Indeed, Napoli have won each of their last three away games against Milan (all in Serie A), including a 2-1 victory earlier this season. That three-game winning away streak is Napoli’s best-ever such run against Milan and they’re a healthy 31/20 to take a victory back to Naples with bet365.
This is pretty unfamiliar territory for both sides. Napoli have reached the quarter-final stage of the European Cup/Champions League for the first time in their history. They were eliminated by Arsenal in their last European quarter-final appearance in the 2018-19 UEFA Europa League. Milan have reached the quarter-final stage of the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2011-12 when they were eliminated by Pep Guardiola’s Barcelona. They last went beyond the quarter-finals in 2006-07 when they last won the competition.
The biggest storyline ahead of this encounter is the fitness of Victor Osimhen. The striker has netted 25 goals in 29 games this season, but a thigh injury while on international duty with Nigeria has seen him miss both of Napoli’s last two games. The Nigerian’s replacement, Giovanni Simeone, came off the bench against Lecce at the weekend but lasted only 16 minutes before he too left with an injury. Giacomo Raspadori, who started against Lecce, may well do the same again Milan, but with just one goal in 18 league matches this season, Spalletti will be desperate Osimhen can go. All eyes will be on the lineups come Wednesday.
Last Meeting
Milan stunned runaway Serie A leaders Napoli at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium earlier this month with a 4-0 league victory. Goals from Rafael Leão (two), Brahim Díaz and Alexis Saelemaekers condemned Napoli to their heaviest league defeat since December 2007 and their biggest margin of defeat in a home league game in nearly 23 years (October 2000).
Milan’s eight shots on target were the most faced in a Serie A match by Napoli this season, while this was the second time in two competitive meetings across 2022-23 that Milan have posted a higher xG total than Napoli – 0.9 xG higher in this match, after having 1.3 xG more than Napoli at the San Siro in September, despite losing that game 2-1 at home.
That 2-1 home defeat was Milan’s last meeting with Napoli at San Siro, with a Matteo Politano penalty and a Giovanni Simeone strike either side of Olivier Giroud’s goal for the Rossoneri sealing victory for the Serie A champions-elect.
In fact, none of the last eight competitive meetings between AC Milan and Napoli have seen the side playing at home victorious – the last six of which have all seen the away team win.
Recent Form
The 4-0 shock defeat to Milan aside, Napoli have been in rock-solid form of late. They’ve won three of their last four matches and 11 of their past 13 in all competitions. Napoli won Group A of the 2022-23 Champions League, ahead of Liverpool, Ajax and Rangers. Only five teams have ever scored more goals in a UCL group stage than they managed this season (20). In the round of 16, they comfortably progressed through a tie with Bundesliga side and reigning UEFA Europa League winners Eintracht Frankfurt, 5-0 on aggregate (2-0 away, 3-0 at home).
They are the current highest-scoring team in the 2022-23 Champions League as it stands, with 25 goals, although they’ve got some way to go if they have aspirations of becoming the highest-scoring team in a single UCL season.
Only Bayern Munich (8/8) have won more games in this season’s Champions League than Napoli (7/8), while the Italian side have posted the highest expected goals tally (22.1) of all sides in this season’s competition. Their average of 3.1 goals per game is currently the fifth-best in a single campaign, after Bayern in 2019-20 (3.9), PSG in 2017-18 (3.4), Real Madrid in 2013-14 (3.2) and Liverpool in 2017-18 (3.2). Given Napoli’s free-scoring campaign to date, if we get confirmation that Osimhen is fit for selection in this game, over 2.5 goals at odds-against (11/10) looks attractive.
On the flip side, Milan have won just one of their last six games in all competitions, including a frustrating goalless draw against Empoli on Friday. A point was a missed opportunity for Milan to further consolidate their place among the top four in Serie A. They are currently in fourth with 52 points, just one point behind Roma, but with Inter Milan (51) and Atalanta (48) snapping at their heels.
Milan reached the quarter-finals of the UCL after a 1-0 aggregate victory over Tottenham Hotspur in the last 16. After winning 1-0 at the San Siro via an early Brahim Díaz strike, they played out a goalless draw in London to make it to the last eight. They finished second in their group stage behind fellow quarter-finalists Chelsea, but ahead of RB Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb in Group E.
Key Players
Milan: Olivier Giroud
Olivier Giroud is Milan’s top goalscorer in the UEFA Champions League this season with four goals. The last player to score five or more goals in a single edition of the competition for the club was Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2011-12 (5). The Frenchman didn’t start in Milan’s most recent league game, but injected life into the game when he came off the bench. It even looked as if Giroud might have won the game against Empoli at the death when he had the ball in the net in the 89th minute, only for the VAR to rule it out for handball.
He’s the only player in the Milan squad to have faced Napoli in the UCL before, doing so twice for Arsenal in the 2013-14 group stages. Giroud scored in one of those appearances for the Premier League side and he’s 5/2 to score anytime for Milan here.
Napoli: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
With Osimhen a doubt for the trip, his partner in crime Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will shoulder much of the attacking burden. The Georgian winger has been a revelation this term for Napoli and is one of just five players to have registered double figures for goals and assists across Europe’s top five league in 2022-23. The other four? Lionel Messi, Neymar, Randal Kolo Muani and Bukayo Saka. Not bad company to keep whatsoever.
Kvaratskhelia is the joint-leading assist maker in the competition (four) and leads Napoli for non-penalty shots (30), shot-ending carries (15) and total attempted take-ons (49). In fact, his 15 shot-ending carries is five more than any other player in the competition, and combined with five chance-creating carries, has been responsible for 21 of Napoli’s shots following carrying the ball five metres or more.
The winger is an absolute livewire with the ball at his feet and Napoli will be looking to feed him wherever possible.
Milan vs Napoli Prediction
The first leg of this tie is finely poised, with Napoli the supercomputer’s slight favourites (38.1%). Milan have a healthy 33.9% chance of winning while the draw at 28.0% just shows that all three results are very much live in this game. Overall, Napoli are given a 67.2% chance of progressing through to the semi-finals.
But while the first leg might be close, the comparisons between the two teams in our tournament-long model are anything but. Napoli are our model’s second favourites to win the whole competition at 21.1%, behind only Manchester City (28.2%). Milan are a longshot at 5.1%, tied with Benfica’s chances, with only Chelsea (1.9%) given a lower chance of winning the competition in 2022-23.
But it’s that 21.1% chance for Napoli that is particularly interesting. Bet365 have the Serie A leaders as a 5/1 shot to win, so we’re showing slight value on them to go all the way.
Who do you think will win the UEFA Champions League in 2022-23? All the latest odds are here.
Milan vs Napoli UCL Squads
Milan: Mike Maignan, Andrea Bartoccioni*, Antonio Mirante, Lapo Nava*, Fotios Pseftis*, Davide Calabria, Fodé Ballo, Theo Hernández, Pierre Kalulu, Fikayo Tomori, Simon Kjær, Alessandro Florenzi, Malick Thiaw, Matteo Gabbia, Dorian Paloschi*, Andrei Coubis*, Andrea Bozzolan*, Davide Bartesaghi*, Adam Bakoune*, Ismaël Bennacer, Sandro Tonali, Brahim Díaz, Tommaso Pobega, Rade Krunić, Alexis Saelemaekers, Kevin Zeroli*, Antonio Gala*, Christian Foglio*, Olivier Giroud, Ante Rebić, Rafael Leão, Divock Origi, Junior Messias, Gabriele El Hilali*, Jordan Longhi*, Charles De Ketelaere, Federico Mangiameli*, Gabriele Alesi*.
Napoli: Alex Meret, Claudio Turi*, Hubert Idasiak*, Valerio Boffelli*, Pierluigi Gollini, Minjae Kim, Juan Jesus, Mário Rui, Amir Rrahmani, Mathías Olivera, Bartosz Bereszyński, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Benedetto Barba*, Leo Østigård, Matteo Marchisano*, Eljif Elmas, Piotr Zieliński, Gennaro Iaccarino*, Alessandro Spavone*, Stanislav Lobotka, Gianluca Gaetano, Tanguy Ndombélé, André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, Victor Osimhen, Hirving Lozano, Giovanni Simeone, Matteo Politano, Antonio Pesce*, Pasquale Marranzino*, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Giacomo Raspadori.
*Player List B
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