Who Will Be Relegated From the Premier League in 2022-23?
Who will be relegated from the Premier League in 2022-23? Using the Opta Supercomputer’s predictions, we’re able to look at the chances of relegation for each team facing the drop from the top-flight. As the season evolves, we’ll track the progress of those sides in their battle to avoid relegation to the Championship.
Victories at this stage of a Premier League season in a relegation battle are big. But when they come against a rival for the drop, like Leeds United managed against Wolverhampton Wanderers, they take on a whole different meaning.
Coming into the crunch clash at Molineux, Javi Gracia’s side were our supercomputer’s third favourties to be relegated (48.1%). But the 4-2 triumph, completing Leeds’ first top-flight double over Wolves since 1973-97, not only saw them soar out of the relegation zone into 14th place but also more than double their chance of survival. The Whites now have ‘just’ a 21.3% of dropping into the Championship.
But before you start pre-ordering the ‘GREAT ESCAPE’ DVD that would no doubt follow any survival, Leeds are still our fifth favourites for the drop, just behind Wolves (19.8%) whose own chances of being demoted increased by nearly 10% with that defeat.
For long-term relegation favourites Southampton, stirring comebacks against Tottenham Hotspur weren’t quite the order of the day. Despite rescuing a point late on, the supercomputer has the Saints chance of being relegated still increasing 9% to 78.1%. It’s the second time this season that Southampton have come from two goals down to avoid defeat (a 2-2 draw against Leeds in August the other occasion) but it does beg the question – what would the probabilities have been if they had lost? Would they drop below the dreaded 80% mark?
Bournemouth’s miserable recent away form continues to prove their Achilles heel in the quest for survival. A 3-0 mauling by Aston Villa was their eighth loss in their last nine away games in the Premier League, during which they also failed to score in six of them. All of that adds up to their chances of playing Championship football next season ticking over 50%.
Nottingham Forest had to wait on the rest of the weekend’s action to see how much their 2-1 defeat against Newcastle United on Friday night would cost them. A six-game run without a win has come at just the wrong time for Stephen Cooper’s side as they become the supercomputer’s third favourites for the drop (49.8%).
That’s also because Everton (42.0%) picked up an unlikely point against Chelsea thanks to Ellis Simms first ever Premier League goal with just a minute of normal time to play at Stamford Bridge. Leicester City (11.0%) also made the most of their 1-1 draw against Brentford to end a four-game losing run and collect their eighth point of 2023, while West Ham United also saw their survival chances increase despite not playing.
The question marks continue to linger over Crystal Palace though. Patrick Vieira gone from the dugout, rumours of a return for Roy Hodgson and a 4-1 defeat against Arsenal were not exactly what the Eagles will want heading into the international break.
Their chances of relegation did increase to 6.1% and much has been made of how little chance they appear to have. But a quick look at their run-in suggests why: Leicester City (H), Leeds United (A), Southampton (A), Everton (H), Wolves (A), West Ham (H), Tottenham (A), Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A), Nottingham Forest (H).
Eight of their ten remaining matches coming against sides lower in the table than Palace – matches they WOULD be expected to get points from. Starting losing those though and expect their probability chances to increase very quickly.
Well, not many people expected Bournemouth to beat Liverpool this weekend, did they? Our supercomputer even deemed a home win was highly unlikely, giving the Cherries just over a one-in-ten chance of picking up all three points (11.9%). After all, the Reds did enjoy a 9-0 home win against them earlier this season.
With just five points separating Southampton at the bottom of the league and 12th-place Crystal Palace, any win for a side in relegation trouble could now see a big shift in projection numbers for the drop to the Championship – and so it proved this weekend.
Bournemouth’s 1-0 victory against Jürgen Klopp’s side saw their chance of survival increase from 33.2% last Monday to 54.2% a week later – a humungous 21% shift. Not only did they win against the odds on Saturday, teams above them dropped crucial points – the only other side in the bottom nine to register a win were Everton, who also won 1-0 at home on Saturday afternoon, against Brentford.
Sean Dyche has now led Everton to three 1-0 home wins in the Premier League since replacing Frank Lampard, and since his arrival on 30 January only five clubs have won more Premier League points – Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Spurs and Man Utd. Their chance of going down is still the second highest at 52.2%, but that’s 14.9% lower than it was this time last week.
It was a bad weekend for Nottingham Forest. Many might have thought that they had a chance of sneaking something at Tottenham Hotspur this weekend, following their midweek UCL exit to Milan in meek fashion, but Harry Kane had other ideas. That loss in north London means that Steve Cooper’s side are now rated at having a 40.1% chance of relegation – up 12.7% from last week. This rise is most probably more down to Everton and Bournemouth’s wins, plus points won for Leeds and Southampton in tricky matches on gameweek 27, however.
Despite a brilliant point away at Manchester United on Sunday afternoon, Southampton are still favourites for the drop at 69.1%, but they have two home games in the space of four days to try and improve that chance ahead of the international break at the end of March. They face Brentford at home on Wednesday night, before Spurs make the trip to the south coast on Saturday.
When Premier League football returned post-World Cup on 26 December, the Opta supercomputer was giving Leicester City a 1.3% chance of relegation to the Championship. However, since then, Brendan Rodgers side have been in freefall and won just seven points from 11 games – the fewest in the competition since Boxing Day. In addition to this, they have conceded a league-high 2.1 goals per game across this period – a leaky defence is not what you need in a relegation battle. All this means that following this weekend’s 3-1 home loss to Chelsea, they are now being given a 14.1% chance of being relegated this season – a 6.4% jump from this time last week.
Crystal Palace have only won one point more than Leicester since the return of Premier League football (eight), but the supercomputer still sees them at relegation outsiders at 4.2%. Of course, this will all change should they continue their poor form and others around them carry on picking up points, but eight of their 10 Premier League fixtures after the international break see them face teams currently in the bottom nine places of the Premier League. Essentially, it’s in their hands.
West Ham‘s form isn’t great in 2023, but they are grinding out results here and there. Their record of two wins, four draws and three losses this year has seen them average more than a point per game (1.11), but they’ll need to pick up more wins in their remaining 12 games to secure safety. Currently one place above the relegation zone and level on points with 18th-place Bournemouth is far from ideal, but the Opta supercomputer still rates them as sixth favourites for the drop at 16.4%.
My word it’s tight in the bottom half of the Premier League table. Just six points separate bottom side Bournemouth and Crystal Palace in 12th.
The weekend’s biggest winners in the battle to avoid the drop were Southampton, who secured a 1-0 victory at home to Leicester City in a real relegation six-pointer. Had they lost, nine points would have separated the two clubs, but now the Foxes are just three points above Southampton.
Thanks to the win – and the failure of others around them in the table to pick up all three points – Southampton’s chances of relegation have improved by 15.1%. They were the favourites for the drop ahead of this weekend (80.4%) but are now behind both Bournemouth (66.8%) and Everton (67.0%) with a 65.3% chance of finishing in the bottom three come the end of 2022-23.
The biggest losers from this weekend were Leeds United, who lost 1-0 to out-of-form Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. They’ve seen their chance of relegation increase by 8.4%, however they still remain as fourth favourites for the drop to the Championship.
Wolves’ incredible rise under Julen Lopetegui continues, following their 1-0 victory over Spurs in the Premier League this weekend. Since his first game on Boxing Day, Wolves have won 17 points from 11 games – more than big-hitters Chelsea (13) and Tottenham (16), while they’ve conceded fewer goals (11) than league leaders Arsenal (14).
When Lopetegui arrived at the club, Wolves were rooted to the bottom of the Premier League with 10 points from 15 games and with a 67.6% chance of relegation based on the Opta supercomputer’s projections. Now, that stands at just 5.0% so it looks like season ticket renewals will be for another topflight campaign.
West Ham suffered an awful 4-0 loss to Brighton, and now have a 13% chance of the drop, while Leicester’s return of seven points in 10 Premier League games since the resumption of the competition post-World Cup is only more than Bournemouth’s total (five).
Aston Villa’s 1-0 win over Crystal Palace means that they now have just a 0.02% chance of being relegated to the Championship, so are no longer worth considering in our battle for the drop. That defeat saw Palace increase their winless Premier League run to nine games – the longest current run in the top-flight. Whilst their chances of relegation are currently just 2.3%, that projection will surely rise quickly should they fail to pick up all three points in a game very soon.
Oh, when the Saints go marching in…to the Championship, at this rate. After a brilliant win at Chelsea on 18 February, Southampton suffered a poor defeat in a relegation six-pointer at Leeds United the following Saturday to stay rooted to the bottom of the Premier League table. Even worse, they went and lost at home to League Two side Grimsby Town in the FA Cup on Wednesday night.
In the thousands of season simulations that the Opta supercomputer has played out for the remainder of the 2022-23 season, Southampton have been relegated in 80.41% of them. Saints, who’re currently in their 11th successive season in the top-flight following their promotion from the Championship in 2011-12, look set for the drop without divine intervention.
Southampton are far from the worst team we’ve seen in Premier League history. There have been 28 clubs to have won fewer than their 18-point tally from 24 games in a season and four of those have managed to avoid relegation in that campaign: Wigan Athletic in 2011-12 (16 points), West Brom in 2004-05 (16 points), Fulham in 2007-08 (16 points) and Leicester City in 2014-15 (17 points). And we all know what happened with Leicester the following season.
Everton rolled the dice with the appointment of Sean Dyche at the end of January, and immediately rolled a six with a 1-0 win over league leaders Arsenal in his first game in charge. Ahead of that game, Everton’s chance of relegation stood at 69.5% and following that matchday (and their shock win) it moved to 51.4%.
However, the fact of the matter is that this is still Everton’s worst Premier League points tally after 25 games (21), and even worse than their dreadful 2021-22 campaign (22). The closest they have come to relegation across their 31 successive Premier League seasons was in 1993-94, when they stayed up on the final day thanks to a 3-2 win over Wimbledon (and Chelsea’s late winner over Sheffield United).
Following three defeats in four Premier League games since, including a midweek 4-0 destruction via Arsenal, the Toffees’ chance of relegation is now the second highest at 66.51%. Who knows what position they’ll find themselves in on the final day of the season, when they host Bournemouth at Goodison Park, but as it stands, that game could be one of the biggest in their entire top-flight history.
Bournemouth are deep in relegation trouble themselves, with the Cherries currently placed 19th and facing Arsenal and Liverpool in their next two games. As it stands, the Opta supercomputer rates their chances of relegation at 63.8% – slightly lower than Everton as they are level on points but have a game in hand on their rivals.
When Bournemouth last suffered relegation from the Premier League in 2019-20, they’d won 23 points from 24 games – two more than they’ve secured this season (21). Alarmingly, their form since the World Cup has been the worst of all teams. Five points from nine games and just four goals scored are both league lows since Boxing Day.
Before last Saturday’s 1-0 win over Southampton, Leeds United were given a 54.9% chance of relegation this season. That single win in Javi Gracia’s first game in charge has improved the Whites’ outcome considerably, with their chances ahead of this weekend now at 37.07%. They face out-of-form Chelsea this weekend, hoping to get a result that’ll pull themselves further away from the bottom three.
Their final month of the season sees them play four games, with three matches against opposition currently in the top five of the Premier League table. Better get those points in the bag now, Leeds.
With three points separating 13th-place Nottingham Forest and the teams in 18th (Everton) and 19th (Bournemouth), one matchday can make a huge difference. Nottingham Forest may be closer to the top half of the table than the relegation zone in placing (three places), but certainly not in points (six).
Only Everton (17) have scored fewer goals than Forest (18) in the Premier League this season, but their form post-World Cup has been decent. With 12 points from nine games, they’ve won more than Newcastle (11) and Chelsea (10) in that period, plus it’s only one fewer than their points tally from before the break from four games more (13 points from 13 matches).
Forest’s chance of relegation currently stands at 22.87%, which is around half that of their pre-season probability (44.47%), but that chance is still more than that of Wolverhampton Wanderers (14.88%).
As the Premier League was about to resume following the World Cup, Wolves were bottom of the table with just 10 points from 15 games. New manager Julen Lopetegui had a mammoth task on his hands, but so far his appointment looks to have been a phenomenal one by Wolves.
Before the games on 26 December, Wolves were the favourites for Premier League relegation (67.6%) – after all, since 1991-92, just three of the 31 clubs to be bottom of the top-flight on Christmas Day have avoided relegation that season: Leicester in 2014-15, Sunderland in 2013-14 and West Brom in 2004-05.
Fourteen points in 10 games since Boxing Day has seen Wolves rise up the table to 15th, but they still remain only three points above the relegation zone, so it’s very much not a case of ‘job done’ by Lopetegui.
West Ham enjoyed a crucial 4-0 win over Nottingham Forest last weekend, but they are still deep in trouble, two places and two points above the drop zone. However, our supercomputer believes their team strength and fixture difficulty will see them avoid relegation from the Premier League for the first time since 2011.
The Hammers have been in trouble and got out of it before now. This is the eighth Premier League campaign that they have won 23 points or fewer from their first 24 games, but in five of the previous seven, they’ve avoided the drop – most memorably in 2006-07 when they finished 15th despite having 20 points at this stage. They did have Carlos Tevez, though.
West Ham are given a 9.0% chance of relegation by the supercomputer, while Leicester City – only a point better off than David Moyes’ side – have just a 4.09% chance.
Crystal Palace (1.22%) and Aston Villa (0.15%) should be safe from relegation, while no, Chelsea aren’t getting relegated in 2022-23.
How Does the Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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