Who will win the Premier League title in 2022-23? Which clubs will qualify for the Champions League and who will be scrapping for Premier League survival this season? Fear not, our trusty supercomputer has crunched the data for you.
Our Premier League Season Predictions: The Quick Hits
Premier League favourites: Liverpool and Manchester City
Top Four Finish: Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea
Relegation: Bournemouth, Fulham and Nottingham Forest
We’ll let you in on a secret. We allowed the supercomputer a break over the summer, with a working holiday in warmer climates during the UEFA Women’s Euro 2022 tournament, where it successfully predicted England would win the title.
No fear, its back home now and has worked hard to give us the Premier League season predictions for 2022-23, with data on how it thinks the English top-flight table will finish position-by-position, as well as chances of winning the title, qualifying for the UCL and being relegated to the Championship for each club.
Premier League Title Prediction
The supercomputer can’t see past another close battle between Liverpool and Manchester City in 2022-23, with Jürgen Klopp’s Reds edging out Pep Guardiola’s side for the title.
Liverpool are being given a 49.7% chance of winning the Premier League this season, 2.7% higher than Man City (47.0%). It would mean just a second league win in the Premier League era, after lifting the trophy without their fans at Anfield in 2019-20, but, more importantly, their 20th English top-flight title in history. This would draw them level with Manchester United for the most top-flight league wins since the English Football League began in 1888.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
At 99.3%, both Manchester City and Liverpool are considered top four shoo-ins by the supercomputer in 2022-23. But who will join them in qualifying for the UEFA Champions League via a top four Premier League finish?
Aided by some clever summer recruitment, the fact that Harry Kane and Son Heung-min remain at the club and their manager Antonio Conte being one of the best club managers across Europe in recent times, Spurs are being given the third-best chance of securing UCL football for 2023-24, at 70.1%.
They are followed by Conte’s former club, now led by Thomas Tuchel – Chelsea. The Stamford Bridge side have a 62.5% chance finishing in the top four this season based on the supercomputer’s analysis of the data.
This means that both Manchester United (22.6%) and Arsenal (22.0%) might suffer more disappointment this season in their quest for Champions League football, with less than one-in-four chance of finishing in the top four.
The three outside bets for a top four finish based on the supercomputer’s analysis are Newcastle United (5.0%), West Ham United (4.9%) and Leicester City (4.1%).
Who Will be Relegated from the Premier League?
It’s bad news for supporters of the three newly promoted clubs to the Premier League in 2022-23 – the supercomputer doesn’t fancy your chances of remaining in the top-flight for another season.
Bournemouth are being given the highest chance of relegation (45.0%), just ahead of Nottingham Forest (44.5%) and last season’s Championship title-winners Fulham (43.8%).
History suggests it might be possible for one of those sides to stay up, however. The only Premier League season in which all three promoted clubs were relegated was 1997-98, when Bolton Wanderers, Barnsley and Crystal Palace were all sent straight back down.
With that in mind, fans of Southampton (34.2% chance of relegation), Brentford (31.9%) and Leeds (31.2%) should be nervous of the campaign ahead.
The last season that all three promoted teams stayed up was in 2017-18, when Newcastle, Brighton and Huddersfield avoided the drop. This is the only time in the last 10 seasons that this has happened.
Predicted Premier League Positions in 2022-23
- Liverpool
- Manchester City
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Chelsea
- Manchester United
- Arsenal
- West Ham United
- Newcastle United
- Leicester City
- Aston Villa
- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Crystal Palace
- Wolverhampton Wanderers
- Everton
- Leeds United
- Brentford
- Southampton
- Fulham
- Nottingham Forest
- Bournemouth
How Does the Supercomputer Model Work?
• Stats Perform’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Stats Perform’s team rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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