Premier League Predictions
With the help of our trusty AI-powered supercomputer, we give Premier League predictions across the matches in each gameweek.
Premier League Predictions: MD1 Quick Hits
Home Wins: Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United
Away Wins: Liverpool and Manchester City
Best Chance of a Draw: Leeds United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers
The 2022-23 Premier League will be different from previous seasons. There will be mid-season break for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, teams can now use five subs, and Mike Dean will be confined to wearing a full referee kit in a side room at Stockley Park. But fear not, the supercomputer returns for another campaign of Premier League predictions.
The 31st Premier League season kicks off on Friday night with a London derby under the lights at Selhurst Park, as Crystal Palace host Arsenal.
Palace beat Arsenal 3-0 in their last meeting but have never previously won consecutive matches against the Gunners in league competition. Our supercomputer gives them a 29.7% chance of doing that this time around – lower than the chance of an Arsenal away win (41.3%). The Gunners’ strong pre-season and summer transfer window acquisition of Gabriel Jesus should make them a dangerous side to face on the opening weekend.
The Eagles are led by former fans favourite Patrick Vieira, a man who knows a thing or two about a red card. Arsenal have had more players sent off in their opening game of a Premier League campaign than any other side (six), with Vieira on the receiving end of one of those, in 2000-01. Not content with being sent off on the opening day that season, he was then sent off in Arsenal’s second game two days later. A much calmer man in the dugout now, it must be said – just don’t invade the pitch and goad him.
Fulham may have been the entertainers on their way to the Championship title in 2021-22, scoring 106 goals, but that doesn’t curry favour with the supercomputer. Hosting Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool side isn’t the most welcome start to any side’s season, but the fixture computer doesn’t factor requests. Earlier this week we revealed that starting a Premier League campaign well gives you a strong chance of surviving relegation, but with just an 8.8% chance of a Fulham victory given by the supercomputer, they have the lowest chance of winning across the competition this matchweek.
They may have lost out to Manchester City in the Premier League title race last season, as well as a defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League final, but our supercomputer is giving Liverpool the best chance of topping the standings at the end of this campaign, pre-season.
At the other end of the table, the supercomputer has already rated the three newly promoted sides as having the highest chance of being relegated this season, and we’ll get to see Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest play in the traditional 3 p.m. Saturday slot on MD1.
Scott Parker’s Cherries side host Aston Villa in their first game back in the Premier League – a repeat of their first-ever game in the competition in August 2015, which Villa won 1-0. With a 38.1% chance of an away win, we might even see a repeat of that result.
Nottingham Forest start life back in the Premier League with an away trip to Newcastle United. This will be Forest’s first Premier League game in 23 years and 82 days – the longest-ever gap between matches in the competition. The supercomputer doesn’t expect it to end in success. Newcastle have a 51.1% chance of victory, compared to Forest’s 21.1%.
Tottenham Hotspur have a home game with Southampton to kick off the Premier League season. Antonio Conte’s Spurs side have been given the highest chance of victory across all 10 hosts of a top-flight game in England this weekend, at 62.9%. Their deadly attacking duo might be powering the supercomputer’s thoughts, as only Alan Shearer (14) and Andy Cole (11) have scored more or as many Premier League goals against Southampton than Harry Kane (11) and Son Heung-min (10).
This is the 124th English top-flight season since the EFL began in 1888, and Everton are the team to have played in the most of these – 2022-23 will be their 119th in the top division. The supercomputer doesn’t respect that history when it comes to predicting their chances of success this weekend, though.
After narrowly avoiding relegation last season, Toffees’ boss Frank Lampard will face the club that gave him his best years as a player – Chelsea. Despite winning each of their last four games against Chelsea at Goodison Park – Chelsea’s longest current active streak of defeats against a league opponent – the supercomputer doesn’t rate their chances of making it five in a row (22.8%), with Thomas Tuchel’s side having the third best chance of victory among the 10 away teams on MD1 (49.8%).
Raheem Sterling looks set to make his competitive debut for Chelsea in this match, and the England forward is one of only 10 players to score a hat-trick on the opening matchweek of a Premier League season.
Leeds United’s meeting with Wolves at Elland Road is the only other Premier League game on Saturday, and the data-crunching contraption gives this fixture the highest chance of a draw across the 10 matches on the opening matchweek (29.3%).
On paper, a trip to the London Stadium to face West Ham United is a tricky game to start a Premier League campaign with. Not for reigning champions Manchester City, according to the supercomputer.
Man City are being given a 63.3% chance of winning in London on Sunday, with the current 13-game unbeaten run for Pep Guardiola’s side against the Hammers – and City’s work in the transfer market to bring in superstar striker Erling Haaland – forcing the AI-powered machine to heavily back the away win.
Before that meeting, Leicester City host Brentford and Manchester United’s Old Trafford will entertain Brighton & Hove Albion on Sunday afternoon. Both home teams are being given a shade under 50% chance of victory in these two matches.
Erik ten Hag becomes the eighth different man to take charge of Man Utd in the competition since Sir Alex Ferguson retired – six of the previous seven have won their opening match, with the only one to lose also being Dutch (Louis van Gaal).
The new season is upon us. Sit tight and see if the supercomputer’s predictions play out.
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