The Open Championship – often referred to as the British Open – is not only the oldest golf tournament in the world but also one of the most prestigious. In what is the 150th Open, golfers from the PGA Tour, European Tour, Japan Tour and the newly-founded LIV Tour calendars will meet in the final major championship of 2022. 

You’ve probably read the expert picks, but who does the data say will perform well and finish high on the leaderboard at The Old Course at St. Andrews in Scotland this weekend? 

Using our AI-powered FRACAS modeling, we’re able to project who’s most likely to win the Open title at ‘the home of golf’, who are the best bets for top-10 finishes and which golfers are suited to the course to make the cut. 

The 2021 tournament saw Collin Morikawa win the Claret Jug – his second major win after the 2020 PGA Championship title – finishing two shots ahead of runner-up Jordan Spieth. Our FRACAS model rates Morikawa’s chances of glory at the Open Championship this weekend at just 1.9% – joint-12th alongside Spieth.  

Louis Oosthuizen may have broken the Open Championship record for the lowest score after 36 holes in 2021 (129), but eventually fell away and finished tied third with Jon Rahm last year, four shots off champion Morikawa. FRACAS fancies Rahm to do well this weekend in Scotland, with only six golfers given a higher chance of victory (2.7%) than the Spaniard, while Oosthuizen is placed within the top 20 of our model with a 1.6% chance of glory. 

Our FRACAS model has Rory McIlroy as the favourite with a 6.2% chance of winning at St. Andrews. The Northern Irish golfer has four major championship victories to his name, but none since 2014. One of those wins eight years ago came when the Open headed to Royal Liverpool, which he then followed up with his second PGA Championship title a month later.  

Xander Schauffele comes into the 2022 Open Championship after winning the Scottish Open last week, often seen as a bellwether for players to perform strongly at St. Andrews. The American came closest to winning The Open back in 2018, when he finished tied second and two shots off winner Francesco Molinari. Our FRACAS model gives him the second highest chance of victory this weekend at 4.5%, just ahead of Justin Thomas (4.1%), Scottie Scheffler (3.7%), 2022 US Open winner Matt Fitzpatrick (3.6%) and Patrick Cantlay (3.2%). 

Third-favourite Thomas has already won a major this year, with the 2022 PGA Championship title in May. He won the title following a playoff against Will Zalatoris but has never previously had a top-10 finish at The Open, with his best of his five efforts coming in 2019 when he tied for 11th.  

Scheffler won the Masters title at Augusta National back in April 2022 – the only major win of his career so far. In 2021, he finished tied 8th at The Open and eight shots behind winner Morikawa.  

FRACAS gives a good outside chance of victory to golfers such as Max Homa, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, Cameron Smith, Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama but the same can’t be said for three-time British Open champion Tiger Woods – he’s given a 0.1% chance of winning the Claret Jug for a fourth time, a lower chance than 98 men taking to the famous golf course this weekend. 

The tee-times and pairing have been announced so it’s time to get excited. To whet your appetite, here The Analyst’s Graham Bell chats about how he thinks this week will play out at the Open Championship, whilst FRACAS founder Kyle Cunningham-Rhoads has an even deeper breakdown of this week’s event.

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