The Champions League’s new ‘Swiss model’ format has left fans guessing how many points will guarantee progression. Using simulations from the Opta supercomputer, we reveal the targets for reaching the knockout stages or securing a play-off spot.
The new ‘Swiss model’ format for the Champions League group stage in 2024-25 has confused a few people, in part because it’s just different to what we were used to.
It’s actually fairly simple, though. This year, 36 teams will play eight games (four at home, four away) against eight different teams. Those 36 teams will then be sorted into a league table just like any other, with three points awarded for a win and one point for a draw.
(In case you’re interested, we recently looked at how difficult each team’s fixtures are, which you can read about here.)
The top eight teams in the league table will progress to the knockout round, and the 16 teams who finish from ninth to 24th will contest a play-off round. The eight winners of those play-offs will join the top eight in the last 16.
See, it’s simple.
But one thing that we can be less sure about is exactly how many points teams will need to make it out of the group stage in this new format.
That’s why we’ve enlisted the help of the trusty Opta supercomputer to try and put an exact number on that, giving teams and managers a target to hit for this season’s new-look Champions League group stage.
By running 50,000 simulations of the group stage, the supercomputer is able to give a probability for the number of points needed to finish in the top eight, and to finish in the top 24.
Here’s what we found.
How Many Points Will Be Needed to Finish in the Top Eight?
In 98% of simulations, 16 points was enough to finish in the top eight, meaning five wins and a draw or four wins and four draws are likely to guarantee progress to the first knockout round.
Fifteen points was sufficient for eighth place in 73% of simulations (or five wins), while 14 points was enough in just 28% of the supercomputer’s simulations.
In other words, 15 points is likely to be enough to progress to the last 16, and 14 points is unlikely to be enough.
So, 15 points is the target for the biggest teams in the competition.
How Many Points Will Be Needed to Finish in the Top 24?
The top eight positions are likely to be reserved for the cream of the crop. It would make sense for the best eight teams in the competition to take those positions.
The play-off therefore represents the best chance of making it through to the knockouts for most teams in the competition.
Our analysis found that 10 points will as good as guarantee a place in the top 24 places, with 99% of simulations seeing teams on 10 points make it into the play-off round.
Nine points is enough for a play-off spot in 69% of simulations, while eight points only saw 16% of teams make it into the top 24.
Put more simply, nine points – or just three wins from eight games – is very likely to be enough to make it into the play-off round. Meanwhile, eight points – or two wins and two draws – is very unlikely to be enough.
So, there’s your minimum target: nine points.
Which Teams Are Most Likely to Finish in the Cut-Off Positions?
In the Opta supercomputer’s 50,000 simulations, Arsenal finished in the crucial eighth place most often.
Mikel Arteta’s side face the most difficult Champions League schedule of the four English teams, but they’re still predicted to win at least four games and sneak straight into the first knockout round with a top-eight finish.
As for the final play-off place, Celtic finished in 24th most often in our simulations.
Celtic last made it past the Champions League group stage in 2012-13 when they were thrashed 5-0 by Juventus in the round of 16. This new format gives teams like Celtic a better chance than ever to enjoy some more Champions League knockout football.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.