Who will win Serie A in 2024-25? Which clubs will qualify for the UEFA Champions League and who will be scrapping for survival this season? We look at all the key questions with our Serie A 2024-25 season predictions via our trusty Opta supercomputer.
Serie A Season Predictions: The Quick Hits
Favourites for the Title: Internazionale
Top Four Favourites: Inter, Atalanta, Juventus and Milan
Relegation Favourites: Venezia, Cagliari and Como
Serie A has earned a reputation as one of Europe’s most competitive leagues in recent years.
Since Juventus won the Scudetto for nine straight campaigns between 2011-12 and 2019-20, the last five seasons have brought four different champions, while Milan, Napoli and Inter have all been top dogs in the last three.
However, after winning their 20th domestic crown in serene fashion last term, Simone Inzaghi’s Nerazzurri are hot favourites to retain their title in 2024-25, having kept the core of their squad together, while also adding experienced free agents Piotr Zieliński and Mehdi Taremi.
Should they fall short, there will be no shortage of pretenders to their throne, from UEFA Europa League winners Atalanta to traditional powerhouses Juventus and Milan, both under new management as Thiago Motta and Paulo Fonseca take the reins.
Who is the Opta supercomputer backing for success in 2024-25, and who are the teams tipped to endure a season of struggle?
Who Will Win Serie A in 2024-25?
Given the dominant fashion of Inter’s 2023-24 title win, it is no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer make them overwhelming favourites to retain their crown.
The Nerazzurri finish top of the pile in a huge 79.2% of our season simulations. For context, that figure falls only slightly short of the 82.2% probability the supercomputer has assigned to Manchester City as they hunt a fifth straight Premier League crown in 2024-25.
Inzaghi’s team finished 19 points clear of runners-up Milan last term, with their only two defeats coming against Sassuolo, who were ultimately relegated. Had Inter not dropped seven points after clinching the title, they could have become just the second team to hit 100 points in a Serie A campaign, after Juventus in 2013-14 (102).
Most impressively of all, Inter’s runaway triumph came after a transfer window that saw key players André Onana, Edin Dzeko, Milan Skriniar, Robin Gosens, Marcelo Brozovic and Romelu Lukaku leave. With no big-name departures to note this term, a 21st Scudetto looks to be theirs to lose.
It is not traditional rivals Juventus or Milan tipped to push Inter closest by the supercomputer, with Atalanta given an 11.2% chance of landing their first top-flight crown.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s men stunned unbeaten Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen in May’s Europa League final courtesy of a memorable Ademola Lookman hat-trick, also clinching a fourth-placed league finish and losing the Coppa Italia final to Juventus.
The loss of Gianluca Scamacca to an anterior cruciate ligament injury is a major blow to La Dea’s hopes, but with Nicolò Zaniolo and Mateo Retegui arriving and Charles De Ketelaere making his loan move permanent, they should continue to be a force and a neutrals’ favourite.
Juventus are the only other side given more than a 1.8% chance of landing the Scudetto, topping the tree in 4.2% of our season simulations. Following a turbulent end to the Massimiliano Allegri era, the Turin giants have snapped up Italy’s most in-demand coach, with Motta leaving Bologna with the parting gift of Champions League qualification.
The signings of Douglas Luiz and Khéphren Thuram appear astute, but Juventus’ tally of just 54 league goals last term was their fewest since 1999-20 (46). This season could be make or break for striker Dušan Vlahović.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
The outstanding performances of Italian clubs in UEFA competitions last term ensured five sides made it into the Champions League, and just nine points separated fourth-placed Atalanta from Fiorentina in eighth by the season’s end.
Another tense battle for Europe is on the cards, and while the supercomputer gives Milan just a 1.8% chance of equalling Inter’s haul of 20 Serie A titles, they follow the Nerazzurri, Atalanta and Juventus in our predicted table.
However, the fact they make the top four in just 42.2% of scenarios shows the fierce competition that exists in the upper reaches of Serie A. A young Milan team stormed to the Scudetto ahead of schedule under Stefano Pioli in 2021-22, but his successor Fonseca must now oversee the next stage of their development.
With Olivier Giroud heading stateside, the Rossoneri moved for Spain’s Euro 2024-winning captain Álvaro Morata, who could prove to be one of the signings of the season. Morata scored 15 times in La Liga for Atlético Madrid last term despite only making 21 starts, the joint-most prolific league campaign of his career (alongside 2016-17 with Real Madrid).
Roma just missed out on Champions League qualification last term despite club legend Daniele De Rossi steadying the ship following José Mourinho’s sacking. They make the top four in 32.8% of scenarios, while Rome rivals Lazio – now under the management of Marco Baroni – do so in 25.6%.
Bologna were Serie A’s surprise package last term as their fifth-place finish was enough to deliver Champions League football, but can they repeat the trick? Their appointment of Vincenzo Italiano, who led Fiorentina to back-to-back UEFA Europa Conference League finals, appears prudent, but the Rossoblu have also lost key men Riccardo Calafiori and Joshua Zirkzee. Their top-four hopes are rated at 28.9%.
And what of Napoli, who were runaway champions a little over a year ago but endured a truly dismal title defence? Having gone through three coaches as they finished 10th last term, they are given just a 15.1% chance of a top-four finish, but new boss Antonio Conte relishes being the underdog.
He led Chelsea to the Premier League title in 2016-17 after taking over a team that had just finished 10th. He couldn’t, could he? Napoli’s title hopes are rated at 0.4%.
Who Will be Relegated from Serie A in 2024-25?
Two of the three promoted clubs managed to survive in Serie A last term, with Genoa almost making the top half and Cagliari staying up by a single point. Frosinone were unable to extend their stay in the top flight beyond one year, with Salernitana and Sassuolo heading down with them.
The supercomputer’s forecast for this year’s promoted clubs is not great, with Como (49%) and Venezia (44.7%) tipped for an immediate return to Serie B. Como are, of course, coached by former Spain star Cesc Fàbregas and can count World Cup winner Raphaël Varane and Andrea Belotti, who enjoyed a 26-goal Serie A campaign with Torino back in 2016-17, among their new signings.
Cagliari, meanwhile, are hoping to avoid a case of second-season syndrome, with Davide Nicola taking the reins following the retirement of the ever-popular Claudio Ranieri. He has his work cut out, with the Sardinians given a 46.3% chance of the drop.
Serie B champions Parma – a favourite among 1990s Calcio fans – go down in 40.8% of simulations and are another of seven clubs assigned more than a 20% chance of relegation.
Lecce (34.5%), Hellas Verona (27.9%) and Empoli (24.1%) are the others, with over a third of the teams in the league having reason to look over their shoulders.
Opta-Simulated Serie A 2024-25 Table
After simulating the 2024-25 season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and therefore rank teams positionally. Here are the Opta supercomputer results from those simulations:
1st: Inter – 84.9 average points
2nd: Atalanta – 73.0
3rd: Juventus – 68.5
4th: Milan – 65.6
5th: Roma – 63.8
6th: Bologna – 63.1
7th: Lazio – 62.3
8th: Napoli – 58.9
9th: Fiorentina – 58.5
10th: Torino – 54.5
11th: Genoa – 46.3
12th: Monza – 44.7
13th: Udinese – 44.6
14th: Empoli – 41.1
15th: Hellas Verona – 39.5
16th: Lecce – 38.6
17th: Parma – 37.6
18th: Venezia – 36.8
19th: Cagliari – 36.5
20th: Como – 36.2
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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