Who will win La Liga in 2024-25? Which clubs will qualify for the Champions League and who will be scrapping for survival this season? We look at all the key questions with our La Liga 2024-25 season predictions via our trusty Opta supercomputer.
La Liga 2024-25 Predictions: The Quick Hits
Favourites for the Title: Real Madrid to retain their crown.
Top Four Favourites: Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid and Girona.
Relegation Favourites: Newly promoted teams Espanyol, Real Valladolid and Leganes.
It has been a hugely successful footballing summer for Spain.
They stormed to victory at Euro 2024, becoming the first European nation to win seven matches at a major international tournament and just the second overall, after Brazil at the 2002 World Cup. Then, La Roja’s youngsters claimed gold at the Paris Olympics, showing the future is pretty bright, too.
And now, focus turns back to La Liga. We tasked the AI-powered Opta supercomputer with simulating the 2024-25 La Liga season 10,000 times to see how it believed the campaign may pan out.
It will be no surprise that Real Madrid, the defending champions who have now added Kylian Mbappé to Carlo Ancelotti’s ranks, are the overwhelming favourites.
But who else could challenge? Will Barcelona make a fist of it? Can big-spending Atlético Madrid test Los Blancos’ mettle? And who will be the teams scrapping it out for survival?
An essential thing to understand is that these projections are based on what the Opta supercomputer knows today. Essentially, if all 380 games in La Liga were to be played now, this is how the model sees the league finishing. Of course, these projections will change throughout the season, thousands of times, based on real-life data powering the seasonal simulations. It doesn’t factor in potential points deductions, a long-term injury to a star striker and it certainly doesn’t have a crystal ball to predict managerial changes.
Nevertheless, these pre-season projections provide an early look at what certain teams might be realistically aiming to achieve in 2024-25. You’ll have seen various 1-20 predictions by publications this summer and you’ve probably made your own, too; see this as a more unique projection without opinion and instead powered by data.
Read on for our Opta supercomputer-powered La Liga season predictions.
Who Will Win La Liga in 2024-25?
Unless you are dead set on standing out from the crowd, then you will probably always pick between Real Madrid and Barcelona when it comes to selecting a La Liga champion.
The Opta supercomputer is no different, and the two standout candidates are Spain’s two big dogs. That being said, Los Blancos are far and away the big favourites, with a whopping 86% chance of Ancelotti’s side going on to win La Liga for the third time in four seasons.
With Mbappé – who scored 44 goals for Paris Saint-Germain across all competitions last season, the joint-most of any player in Europe’s top five leagues (along with Harry Kane) – adding to the likes of Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham, it’s hardly surprising to see Real fancied, but such a huge probability is perhaps something of a shock.
With a much more modest 10.3% chance of triumphing come Barça, who are of course under new stewardship in the form of Hansi Flick, after Joan Laporta’s bizarre turnaround on Xavi at the back end of last season.
The Blaugrana are expected to finish second (50.6%), ahead of Atlético. Diego Simeone’s team have spent big by bringing in Julian Álvarez, Alexander Sørloth and Robin Le Normand, with Conor Gallagher close too, yet our supercomputer does not anticipate those signings will be enough to propel Atlético towards their third league crown under Simeone – they have just a 2.2% chance of finishing top, a 17.6% likelihood of placing second and a 29% probability of finishing third.
Girona were right in the hunt for much of last season, before falling away towards the end, but they have only a 0.8% chance of crashing the big three’s party this time around.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
Not that it was a sure-fire thing for plenty of last term, but Atlético did ultimately claim a spot in the Champions League with ease, finishing eight points clear of fifth-placed Athletic Club.
So, assuming Atlético join their city rivals and Barcelona in qualifying for the Champions League, which teams are most likely to battle it out for that fourth (and final, barring a turnaround in the UEFA coefficient standings) place in Europe’s elite club competition?
Girona, who will be making their continental competition debut this term, are backed to finish fourth, though at only 20.2%, the supercomputer is hedging its bets somewhat. They have also lost key players in the form of Savinho, who has joined Manchester City, Yan Couto, now at Borussia Dortmund, and last season’s La Liga top scorer Artem Dovbyk, who has been sold to Roma.
Athletic Club, who won the Copa del Rey last term, meanwhile, will be hoping to keep Nico Williams and see him drive them into the big time. They have a 16.8% chance of finishing fourth and a 18.3% likelihood of coming fifth. It would be a surprise to see them drop out of the top seven, so expect them to be there or thereabouts.
Likewise, their Basque rivals Real Sociedad are anticipated to be in the equation; they have an accumulative 49% chance of finishing between fourth and sixth. Their chances, mind, could be dented should key midfielders Martín Zubimendi and Mikel Merino leave – they are being courted by Liverpool and Arsenal respectively.
Villarreal are fancied to challenge for the top six, but their squad does look somewhat thin. Nicolas Pepe, the former Arsenal winger, has signed on a free transfer, but will that be enough to propel the Yellow Submarine into Europe? Especially after the loss of Sørloth, who scored 26 goals from an expected goals (xG) of just 13.9 in all competitions last season.
Andalusian rivals Real Betis and Sevilla are set to be there or thereabouts, too, despite the latter enduring a difficult campaign in 2023-24, finishing 14th.
Betis have Europa Conference League football to contend with, but have plenty of experience in their squad, which is coached by Manuel Pellegrini. Willian José was their top scorer (14) last term, but has moved on to Spartak Moscow, though perhaps UEFA Europa League qualification is the best they can realistically hope for.
Who Will be Relegated from La Liga in 2024-25?
Only one of the promoted teams – Granada – suffered an instant return to the second tier last season, with Las Palmas finishing 16th, while Alavés were well clear of danger in 10th place.
But what does our model think of the survival chances of promoted teams Espanyol, Real Valladolid and Leganés this time around?
Well… fans of those clubs might want to look away now.
Leganes are the team most likely to finish bottom of the pile, with the Madrid minnows coming last in 19.4% of the simulations the Opta supercomputer ran. Indeed, they went down in a total of 46.7% of those simulations.
Given a marginally better chance of staying up are Valladolid – their most likely position is also 20th (16.8%), but there is a 55.5% likelihood they stave off the drop. Espanyol have a 43.4% chance of finishing in the bottom three.
Las Palmas, too, can’t exactly be considered likely to be clear of danger – they suffered relegation in 41.8% of the simulations. Rayo Vallecano are expected to finish around 16th, but Getafe could also be down there. Osasuna, Alavés, Mallorca and fallen giants Valencia are anticipated to have enough to finish in mid-table.
Opta-Simulated La Liga 2024-25 Table
After simulating the 2024-25 season 10,000 times, we’re able to average the points total of every club across those simulations and therefore rank teams positionally. Here’s the Opta supercomputer results from those simulations:
1st: Real Madrid – 89.3 average points
2nd: Barcelona – 76.5
3rd: Atlético Madrid – 69.7
4th: Girona – 65.7
5th: Athletic Club – 63.5
6th: Real Sociedad – 62.1
7th: Villarreal – 59.4
8th: Real Betis – 54.0
9th: Sevilla – 49.0
10th: Valencia – 46.6
11th: Celta Vigo – 46.5
12th: Mallorca – 46.0
13th: Alavés – 45.4
14th: Osasuna – 44.9
15th: Getafe – 41.8
16th: Rayo Vallecano – 41.0
17th: Las Palmas – 38.8
18th: Espanyol – 38.5
19th: Real Valladolid – 38.0
20th: Leganés – 37.7
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
• Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
• The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
• The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
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