We look ahead to the Euro 2024 final in Berlin with our Spain vs England prediction and preview.
Spain vs England Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Spain the favourites to win the Euro 2024 final. La Roja succeeded in 60.4% of simulations, winning inside 90 minutes 40.7% of the time.
- Spain have won all six of their matches at Euro 2024, already the most ever at a single edition of the competition.
- England are unbeaten in their last six European Championship games when conceding first (W5 D1).
Everyone who doubted the power of the Opta supercomputer when it made England favourites to win Euro 2024 at the start of the tournament, get typing up your apologies.
Granted, the Three Lions had not played well until, well, arguably Wednesday night’s semi-final, and they still have a final to win, but the fact they are there when so many doubted them is testament to the job done by Gareth Southgate and his team of never-give-uppers.
They will face Spain in Sunday’s final, who some also underestimated prior to Euro 2024. Luis de la Fuente’s side have really impressed in Germany, though, winning all six of their matches, already the most wins any side has earned in a single edition of the UEFA European Championship.
La Roja overcame a tough group of Italy, Croatia and Albania, before getting past Georgia, Germany and France to reach the final.
After falling behind early on to France in their semi-final on Tuesday, Spain hit back with goals from Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo to win 2-1 in Munich. Aged 17 years and one day, Yamal could become the youngest player to ever feature in a World Cup or European Championship final, breaking Pelé’s record from the 1958 World Cup (17y 249d).
Yamal’s stunning goal against France saw him become the youngest player to score at a Euros, while he also has three assists at the tournament, with no Spaniard ever providing four at a single European Championship.
Spain will fancy their chances, having won their last three major tournament finals, winning the European Championship in 2008 and 2012, and the World Cup in 2010. No European side has ever been successful in four consecutive World Cup/Euros final matches before.
They will be searching for their fourth European Championship trophy, having won it in 1964, 2008 and 2012. Spain’s only final defeat in the competition came against France in 1984. They could become the first team to win the competition on four separate occasions.
England have never won the competition, with this only their second Euros final. Their previous one was also the last one (Euro 2020), making it consecutive appearances in the showpiece event. They have now reached more major tournament finals in four attempts under Gareth Southgate (2) than they did in their first 23 appearances at the World Cup/Euros combined (1) before his arrival as manager.
This will also be England’s first major tournament final played on foreign soil, with the 1966 World Cup and Euro 2020 finals both played at Wembley Stadium. The Three Lions have a good record in Berlin, having won four and drawn two of their six games in the German capital.
England finished top of a group that featured Serbia, Denmark and Slovenia, before getting past Slovakia, Switzerland and the Netherlands to make the final.
Ollie Watkins was the hero in the semi-finals, coming off the bench to score a 90th-minute winner against the Dutch, who had taken an early lead through Xavi Simons before Harry Kane equalised with a penalty as England eventually secured a 2-1 victory.
Don’t be surprised if Spain take the lead in the final. England have conceded the first goal in all three of their knockout games at Euro 2024, while Spain have scored 13 goals – only France in 1984 (14) have scored more at a single edition of the European Championship.
However, England are unbeaten in their last six games at the Euros when conceding first (W5 D1), with no side winning more such games in the competition’s history.
England boss Southgate has come in for some criticism during the tournament for his team’s perceived lack of ambition. They find themselves in another final though, and Southgate will be only the third manager to take charge of more than one European Championship final (excl. replays), after Helmut Schön (1972, 1976) and Berti Vogts (1992, 1996), both with Germany, and with all three doing so in consecutive editions. No manager has ever lost two finals in the competition before, and the former Middlesbrough manager will be hoping not to make history in that regard.
His opposite number, De la Fuente, will be 63 years and 23 days old on the day of the final, the third-oldest manager to take charge of European Championship finalists after Luis Aragonés, also with Spain, in 2008 (69y 337d) and Otto Rehhagel with Greece in 2004 (65y 330d), both of whom won the trophy.
It should be an interesting contest at the Olympiastadion. Will Spain return to the top of the European game, or is football finally ‘coming home’?
Spain vs England Head-to-Head
This will be the third meeting between Spain and England at the European Championship, with England winning 2-1 in the 1980 group stage, before progressing 4-2 on penalties after a 0-0 draw in the 1996 quarter-final.
England have failed to score in three of their four major tournament (World Cup/Euros) games against Spain, with the last two such matches both finishing 0-0 (1982 World Cup, Euro 96).
Spain have only lost four of their last 14 meetings with England in all competitions (W7 D3), having lost seven in a row against the Three Lions before this.
England won 3-2 the last time they faced Spain, in the UEFA Nations League in October 2018. Raheem Sterling (2) and Marcus Rashford gave the visitors a 3-0 half-time lead in Seville, before Paco Alcácer and Sergio Ramos pulled goals back in the second for Spain.
England have not won consecutive meetings with La Roja since a run of seven between 1960 and 1980.
Spain vs England Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Spain the favourites to win the Euro 2024 final, with De La Fuente’s side winning inside 90 minutes in 40.7% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
England win in normal time in 28.5% of sims, while the final goes to extra-time in the remaining 30.8%.
Including extra-time and penalties as possible methods of victory, Spain win the final in 60.4% of sims, while England lift the trophy in the other 39.6%.
Spain vs England Squads
Spain
Álex Remiro, David Raya, Unai Simón, Álex Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Dani Carvajal, Dani Vivian, Jesús Navas, Marc Cucurella, Nacho, Robin Le Normand, Álex Baena, Fabián Ruiz, Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Álvaro Morata, Ayoze Pérez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Joselu, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.
Head coach: Luis de la Fuente
England
Aaron Ramsdale, Dean Henderson, Jordan Pickford, Ezri Konsa, Joe Gomez, John Stones, Kieran Trippier, Kyle Walker, Lewis Dunk, Luke Shaw, Marc Guéhi, Adam Wharton, Conor Gallagher, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Kobbie Mainoo, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Anthony Gordon, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Eberechi Eze, Harry Kane, Ivan Toney, Jarrod Bowen, Ollie Watkins, Phil Foden.
Head coach: Gareth Southgate
Spain vs England Predicted Lineups
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