We look ahead to the Euro 2024 semi-final in Dortmund with our Netherlands vs England prediction and preview.
Netherlands vs England Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer ranks the chances extra-time very high in this game at 30.8%.
- This is the fourth meeting between England and the Netherlands at a major tournament.
- The Netherlands have been eliminated from four of their five semi-final ties at the Euros.
England have staggered and stuttered their way through Euro 2024, but they are nevertheless in another semi-final.
For the third time at a major tournament under Gareth Southgate, the Three Lions are in the last four – the only competition in which they have failed to reach that stage since the start of the 2018 World Cup was in Qatar in 2022.
And standing in their way of a consecutive Euros final are the Netherlands.
Ronald Koeman’s team were unconvincing in the group stage but, unlike their opponents in Dortmund on Wednesday, have clicked into gear in the knockouts.
Whereas England required extra-time – and a Jude Bellingham stunner – to break Slovakian hearts, and then stayed perfect from the spot and relied on a save from Jordan Pickford to beat Switzerland on penalties, the Netherlands overcame Romania 3-0 and Turkey 2-1, both inside 90 minutes.
England have gone to extra-time in both of their knockout ties so far. Only Portugal at Euro 2016, Spain at Euro 2020, and Italy at Euro 2020 have ever gone to extra-time three times in a single edition of the finals.
While Southgate has come under criticism for the level of performances in Germany, his major tournament record is hard to argue with.
England went 22 years between 1996 and 2018 without reaching a semi-final. Including making it to the final four at the World Cup in Russia six years ago, England have now reached that stage three times.
Indeed, having gone 65 years without reaching a men’s final, England are now on the brink of back-to-back appearances in a major tournament’s biggest event. There have been five occasions of a team reaching the final of consecutive editions of the Euros; USSR (1960/1964), Germany (1972/1976, 1976/1980, 1992/1996) and Spain (2008/2012).
This is England’s fourth appearance in the semi-final of the European Championship; having been eliminated in the first two in 1968 (vs Yugoslavia) and 1996 (vs Germany). The Three Lions reached the final of the competition at Euro 2020 after beating Denmark 2-1, only to lose on penalties to Italy at Wembley.
Bukayo Saka cast the demons of 2021 away with his composed effort in the shootout against the Swiss, and it was his superb strike that forced extra-time in the first place. He will surely start on the right again in this one despite recent debates about the Arsenal man moving to the left, especially with Luke Shaw making his first appearance from the bench in the quarter-finals.
For the Dutch, it will be a sixth semi-final at the Euros. They have lost their last four, with their one victory coming in 1988 – they went on to win that tournament, with Marco van Basten scoring one of the most famous goals in the competition’s history in the final, which took place in Munich.
This will be the Netherlands’ first Euros semi-final since 2004, though there were only 16 teams competing rather than 24 so one round fewer to navigate. On that occasion, they lost 2-1 to host nation Portugal.
Should they fall behind on Wednesday, the Netherlands are unlikely to panic. They have won two different matches having conceded the first goal at Euro 2024, beating Poland 2-1 in the group stage and Turkey by the same score in the quarter-final.
Only Czech Republic, at Euro 2004, have ever won three games having conceded first a single edition of the tournament, but it does show England – who have proved comeback specialists themselves in the knockouts – need to be wary.
England’s games at Euro 2024 have hardly been all out attack, but they will come up against a Dutch side that have scored nine goals across their five games at the tournament – only Germany and Spain (11 each) have scored more – while their 8.12 expected goals ranks fourth in the competition.
England, on the other hand, have mustered just 4.36 xG, scoring five times. The Oranje also average more touches in the opposition box than the Three Lions (29.8 per game compared to 25.6).
It feels like an even contest, with England finding ways to win, but if the Dutch are to change the record when it comes to their European Championship runs in the modern era, this is as good a chance as any.
Netherlands vs England Head-to-Head
This is the fourth meeting between England and the Netherlands at a major tournament; the Oranje won 3-1 at Euro 88 (thanks to a Van Basten hat-trick), followed by a goalless draw at the 1990 World Cup, and a 4-1 England win at Euro 96.
Of all the nations England have faced 20+ times in their history, only against Brazil (15%) do they have a lower win rate than they do against the Netherlands (27% – W6 D9 L7).
In fact, England have won just one of their last nine meetings with the Netherlands in all competitions (D4 L4), winning a friendly match 1-0 in Amsterdam in March 2018.
Netherlands vs England Prediction
England have been clear favourites, according to the Opta supercomputer, in every match they have played at Euro 2024 so far. But that is not the case for this tie.
The model gives England a 37.8% chance of victory, just marginally more than the Netherlands’ 31.6%; the draw threat (so, the likelihood of a penalty shootout) is coming in at a relatively large 30.6%.
Netherlands vs England Squads
Netherlands
Bart Verbruggen, Justin Bijlow, Mark Flekken, Daley Blind, Denzel Dumfries, Jeremie Frimpong, Lutsharel Geertruida, Matthijs de Ligt, Micky van de Ven, Nathan Aké, Stefan de Vrij, Virgil van Dijk, Ian Maatsen, Georginio Wijnaldum, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Xavi Simons, Brian Brobbey, Joshua Zirkzee, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn, Wout Weghorst.
Head coach: Ronald Koeman
England
Aaron Ramsdale, Dean Henderson, Jordan Pickford, Ezri Konsa, Joe Gomez, John Stones, Kieran Trippier, Kyle Walker, Lewis Dunk, Luke Shaw, Marc Guéhi, Adam Wharton, Conor Gallagher, Declan Rice, Jude Bellingham, Kobbie Mainoo, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Anthony Gordon, Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer, Eberechi Eze, Harry Kane, Ivan Toney, Jarrod Bowen, Ollie Watkins, Phil Foden.
Head coach: Gareth Southgate
Netherlands vs England Predicted Lineups
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