With the start of Euro 2024 now tantalisingly close, we get the Opta supercomputer’s Group A predictions for Germany, Scotland, Hungary and Switzerland. Who will qualify for the last 16?
The 17th instalment of the European Championship gets underway on 14 June as tournament hosts Germany take on Scotland in Munich. Those two sides are joined in Group A by Hungary and Switzerland, and the four make up what is one of the most evenly-matched groups in the entire tournament.
So, who will qualify for the last 16? And which teams have the best chance of progressing the furthest in the tournament?
We look at the Opta supercomputer’s prediction numbers to answer those questions, and a whole lot more.
Euro 2024 Group A Predictions: The Quick Stats
- Hosts Germany are expected to qualify comfortably for the last 16 (88.5%).
- Julian Nagelsmann’s side are the favourites to top the group at 52.1%.
- From there, though, it’s a three-way scrap. Hardly anything separates Switzerland (61.0%), Hungary (59.3%) and Scotland (58.9%) from qualifying for the knockout stages.
Tournament hosts Germany get the Euro 2024 party started next Friday, as they look to become the first solo tournament hosts to win the competition since France in 1984.
The good news for Germany and their newly-minted coach Julian Nagelsmann, is that they historically tend to perform well on home soil on the biggest stage.
Every time they’ve previously been the sole host of a major tournament, Germany have finished among the final four, winning the 1974 World Cup, reaching the semi-finals at Euro 1988 and finishing third at the 2006 World Cup.
Those performances are in the past though, and Germany have gone through an uncharacteristically fallow period in recent years. Remarkably, they’ve not won a knockout game at a major international tournament since Euro 2016, having been eliminated in the group stages of the last two World Cups (2018, 2022) and in the round of 16 at Euro 2020.
The Opta supercomputer projects that unwanted run will come to an end at Euro 2024, however, making Germany the clear favourites to progress from Group A (88.5%). They win the group in over half (52.1%) of the supercomputer’s data-led simulations.
In fact, at 12.4% to go all the way, they are Opta’s third favourites to win the competition behind England (19.9%) and France (19.1%). Win Group A and they’ll then get what should be a favourable last-16 tie against the runners-up of Group C. From there, a deep run could be on the cards.
But make no mistake, Group A is arguably the tightest of them all. And that’s illuminated by the progression probabilities of the other three teams in the group.
Switzerland (61.0%) are the supercomputer’s second favourites to qualify for the last 16, but as you can see in the above graphic, only just. Murat Yakin’s side are taking part in their sixth European Championship, their third in a row, and will be looking to replicate a successful Euro 2020 campaign that saw them knock out France on penalties in an epic last-16 clash.
Their track record is strong, too. Together with France, the Swiss are the only European team to have reached the knockout stages in each of the last five major international tournaments. They are a 61.0% shot to extend that record, while they have a 25.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals once more.
From there, it’s a very slight drop down to Hungary (59.3%). Before Tuesday’s late friendly defeat to the Republic of Ireland, they were unbeaten in 13 games, so Marco Rossi’s side come into the tournament in decent form. That unbeaten run included all eight fixtures of their Euro 2024 qualifying group (W5 D3).
That success in qualification marked the first time they’d ever gone through an entire European Championship qualifying group without losing, and the first ahead of a major tournament since the 1974 World Cup.
Hungary failed to win a single game at Euro 2020, but Liverpool midfielder and captain Dominik Szoboszlai missed that tournament through injury. With a squad full of talent across Europe’s top five leagues, could Hungary be this year’s dark horses?
Scotland round out the group and have a really healthy 58.9% chance of qualifying for the last 16. That would be a first for the Scots, who are making their fourth appearance at the European Championship but are yet to reach the knockout stages of the competition.
Steve Clarke’s side greatly impressed in qualifying, finishing second in a difficult group that contained both Spain and Norway. They tallied five wins in that campaign, their most in an eight-game qualifying group for a major tournament, and it included a famous 2-0 victory over Spain at Hampden Park.
Scott McTominay scored both of those goals that day and the Manchester United midfielder netted seven in total during the qualifying process, the joint most by a Scottish player in a Euros/World Cup qualifying campaign.
Finishing second in the group – and the model suggests they’ve got a 24.6% chance of doing so – will set up last-16 clash against the runners-up of Group B. Win that, and Scotland could face the Auld Enemy, England, in the quarter-finals.
If that happened, it’s safe to say the majority of the United Kingdom would lose its mind.
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