Mikel Arteta’s Gunners remain in Premier League title contention on the final day, though the race is out of their hands. We look ahead to Sunday’s huge clash with our Arsenal vs Everton prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Everton Stats: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to do their bit on Sunday, giving them a 61.9% chance of victory over Everton (14.5%) at the Emirates Stadium.
- Arsenal have won the final game of all four of their Premier League seasons under Mikel Arteta, giving him the joint-best 100% record on the final matchday of any manager, alongside Chris Coleman.
- Gabriel Jesus’ five Premier League goals on Matchday 38 are the most of any player currently in the competition, while he has also netted more often against Everton (eight times) than he has against any other side.
Match Preview
Much to the delight of some Tottenham fans, Arsenal did not get the favour they craved from their north London rivals in midweek, keeping Manchester City in control of the Premier League title race going into Sunday’s final slate of fixtures. The Gunners must now pray West Ham can avoid defeat at the Etihad Stadium, while also doing their bit against Everton.
Following City’s 2-0 win at Tottenham, the Opta supercomputer gives Pep Guardiola’s champions an 84.1% chance of retaining their crown, with Arsenal dethroning them in just 15.9% of Matchday 38 simulations.
A final-day victory for Arsenal will take them to 89 points for 2023-24, one short of the club record of 90 set by the ‘Invincibles’ of 2003-04 and two more than the 87 accumulated by their 2001-02 title winners. Mikel Arteta’s side have also scored 89 Premier League goals this season, their most in a top-flight campaign since 1963-64 (90).
The final-day omens are positive for Arteta, who enjoyed a distinguished six-year spell with Everton during his playing career. He has overseen four final-day victories in his four seasons as a Premier League manager, all at home, giving him the joint-best 100% win rate on matchday 38 of any manager in the competition’s history alongside Chris Coleman.
No team has lost their final game of the Premier League season more often than Everton, who have ended 14 campaigns with a defeat. They did, of course, finish 2022-23 with a crucial victory over Bournemouth, meaning they could win their final game in consecutive seasons for the first time since a run of five between 2007-08 and 2011-12.
With safety long secured, Sean Dyche’s team should be far more relaxed on Sunday than they were last year when an Abdoulaye Doucouré goal was required to prevent them from sliding into the Championship.
The Toffees will no doubt be glad to draw the curtain on a campaign that has seen them lose eight points to two separate points deductions for breaching profit and sustainability rules, but they are finishing strongly; last week’s 1-0 win over Sheffield United making it five victories in their last seven matches.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s return to form has been central to their upturn, the striker netting on his last two away appearances against Newcastle United (1-1) and Luton Town (1-1), taking him to a team-high four Premier League goals on the road in 2023-24. He last netted on three consecutive away appearances between November and December 2020.
Jack Harrison, Vitalii Mykolenko and Nathan Patterson are all sidelined for the visitors, while André Gomes is doubtful after suffering a facial injury against the Blades last week. Jurrien Timber is Arsenal’s only confirmed absentee, with Bukayo Saka likely to feature despite sustaining a knock in last week’s 1-0 win at Manchester United.
Leandro Trossard scored the Gunners’ winner at Old Trafford, his 20th Premier League goal since the start of last season (13 for Arsenal, seven for Brighton and Hove Albion). None of those have come from the penalty spot, with only Phil Foden (28) and Gabriel Martinelli (21) netting more goals in that span without any coming from a penalty.
Trossard, Saka and Kai Havertz have formed a deadly attacking trio for Arsenal of late, but if Arteta opts to ring the changes, he could bring in a man with plenty of experience of finishing the season strongly.
Gabriel Jesus has five Premier League goals on matchday 38, the most of any player currently active in the division, while he has also netted more often against Everton (eight) than he has against any other side in the competition.
Arsenal vs Everton Head-to-Head
Arsenal have lost just one of their last 27 Premier League home games against Everton (22 wins, four draws), going down 1-0 in April 2021.
This spell includes three final-day victories over them – 4-3 in 2001-02, 3-1 in 2016-17 and 5-1 in 2021-22.
Everton were beaten by a Trossard goal in September’s reverse fixture at Goodison Park, but they have not lost home and away against Arsenal in a single Premier League season since 2017-18.
Recent Form
Everton are winless in their last 10 away Premier League games (four draws, six defeats), failing to score more than once in any of these matches.
It is their longest run without an away victory under the same manager since a run of 12 under Ronald Koeman between February and October 2017.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have won five straight games since suffering a 2-0 home defeat against Aston Villa last month, keeping four clean sheets in those matches.
The Gunners have won their final Premier League game of the season more often than any other side, doing so on 22 occasions, including the last 12 in a row, also boasting the best win rate in such matches in the competition (71%).
They have not lost their final game of the season since 2004-05 (2-1 versus Birmingham City), and have not done so at home since 1992-93 (3-1 against Tottenham).
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Arsenal vs Everton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer is not forecasting any surprises at the Emirates, but unfortunately for Arsenal, it does not predict a shock at the Etihad either.
Arsenal are assigned a 61.9% chance of victory to Everton’s 14.5% chance, with the likelihood of a draw standing at 23.6%.
The last team to win the top-flight title when starting the final matchday off the top of the table was Arsenal back in 1988-89, when they beat Liverpool at Anfield to capture the trophy,
However, with City assigned a 75% chance of victory over West Ham, the Gunners remain massive outsiders to claim the crown.
Enjoy this? Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.