With the help of our AI-powered supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Premier League season in 2023-24 is shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory.
We have a title race that is going all the way, with defending champions Manchester City the team to beat and Arsenal pushing them until the end.
There is set to be an equally intense battle to avoid relegation, with playing in the Premier League now more valuable financially than ever before.
Our AI-powered Opta Supercomputer has been making its match picks for every fixture over the course of a hugely exciting season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League predictions, and be sure to check back here every week.
Matchday 37
The Opta Supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of a full weekend of Premier League football.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the latest round of matches in what remains a crucial period of the season at both ends of the league table, with just one point separating Arsenal and Manchester City at the top of the standings.
The AI-powered machine enjoyed a strong round with its picks in the last matchweek, as favourites Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle United and Nottingham Forest all emerged triumphant. It was a near-perfect slate of match predictions, with Manchester United’s collapse at Crystal Palace probably the biggest surprise.
Matchday 37 will see eight fixtures take place on a mammoth Saturday, with Man City having the chance to go top when they travel to Fulham in a match that starts the weekend’s action.
There is title race interest on Sunday too, with Arsenal travelling to play Man Utd in the only match taking place that day. Aston Villa’s key clash at home to Liverpool will round off the MD 37 action on Monday.
Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta Supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 37: The Quick Hits
- It could be a decisive weekend in the title race as Manchester City are strong favourites to defeat Fulham but title rivals Arsenal are given a much tougher path to victory at Old Trafford.
- The Opta Supercomputer backs Tottenham to keep their faint top-four hopes alive with victory over Burnley. Despite losing four straight games, Ange Postecoglou’s team are the most confident prediction of the week.
- Liverpool are well backed to win away atAston Villa after their morale-boosting triumph over Spurs at Anfield last time out.
Matchday 37 begins with a huge fixture in the title race, as Manchester City visit Fulham in Saturday’s early kick-off, knowing a victory will take them top of the table ahead of Arsenal facing Manchester United on Sunday.
The Gunners may not be expecting a favour, with City winning their last 15 matches against Fulham across all competitions, the joint-longest winning run any team has ever recorded against another in English football history, with City also enjoying 15-game streaks against Bournemouth and Watford.
The Opta prediction model is not forecasting any surprises, with City’s win probability of 61.6% the highest of any away team over the weekend and the second highest overall.
Fulham, who have won just one of their 15 previous home Premier League games against City (five draws, nine defeats), are assigned a 15% chance of victory and a 23.4% chance of holding Pep Guardiola’s men to a draw.
At 3pm on Saturday, Bournemouth welcome Brentford to the Vitality Stadium, with Andoni Iraola’s Cherries looking to respond to last week’s 3-0 defeat at Arsenal and boost their hopes of a top-half finish.
They are unbeaten in their last six Premier League games on their own turf (four wins, two draws), their joint-longest run without defeat on home soil in the top flight. However, the supercomputer is less than positive about their chances of breaking new ground, assigning them a 32.6% chance of victory.
Thomas Frank’s Bees have won their final away league game in each of the last three seasons, beating Bristol City in 2020-21 (3-1), Everton in 2021-22 (3-2) and Tottenham last term (3-1). They enter the game as narrow favourites with a 38.8% win probability, with the likelihood of a draw rated at 28.6%.
Everton joined Brentford in securing safety with time to spare, so the pressure is off Sean Dyche’s men as they host already-relegated Sheffield United at Goodison Park. A win probability of 54.1% makes the Toffees one of four teams assigned more than a 50% chance of victory this weekend.
Sheffield United are given just a 19.3% chance of taking all three points. However, if recent history is anything to go by, the omens are positive for the Blades. They have won more away Premier League games against Everton (three) than they have versus any other club, triumphing on five of their last seven league trips to Goodison overall.
Newcastle will welcome Brighton to St James’ Park for their last home fixture of the season and the North East faithful will be hoping their team can follow up their 4-1 thumping of Burnley. Newcastle have scored 78 Premier League goals season – it’s their second highest tally in a single campaign after 1993-94 (82), and their highest ever in a 38-game top-flight season.
Eddie Howe’s men will be looking to chase down Tottenham in fifth position, as they suddenly only trail Spurs by four points. The supercomputer had the Magpies winning in 45.3% of its simulations, with the Seagulls handed a chance of 27.2% and the draw at 27.5%. Brighton won 1-0 against Aston Villa last time out, ending a six-game winless run in the Premier League. However, they’ve not won back-to-back league games since a run of three wins in September.
A trip to Tottenham could define Burnley’s season – failure to win will see them relegated from the Premier League for a fourth time. The Clarets have lost all seven of their league games against sides starting the day in the top five this season by an aggregate score of 24-7 and it’s not good news for Burnley fans as the supercomputer heavily favours Spurs. In our model’s highest conviction prediction of the weekend, Spurs are rated at 64.0% for the win and only a 13.8% chance is given to the Clarets.
Spurs will look to bounce back after a frenetic encounter with Liverpool last time out eventually saw them lose 4-2. Tottenham have lost each of their last four games and they last had a longer losing run in 2004 (six – three under Jacques Santini, three under Martin Jol). Ange Postecoglou could be the first Spurs manager to lose five in a row since Osvaldo Ardiles in 1994 (7), but our supercomputer backs him to avoid that fate.
West Ham are looking to complete their first league double over Luton Town since 1983-84, following their 2-1 win at Kenilworth Road earlier this season. David Moyes will take charge of his last home game as the manger after the announcement of his departure at the end of the season and he will need to reverse a worrying recent slide, as the Hammers have lost three of their last four games (D1), shipping five goals in each of the last two defeats.
They have conceded five or more goals in four different league games this season, last doing so more in 1965-66 (6). Despite their poor form, Luton are struggling too and the Opta Supercomputer has the hosts well ahead going into this fixture with a significant 56.5% win probability, opposed to a 19.6% chance for Luton. Since beating Brighton 4-0 in January and moving outside the relegation zone, Luton have won just one of their last 15 Premier League games (D4 L10) and a defeat in this match would leave them on the cusp of relegation back to the Championship.
Wolves (36.9%) versus Crystal Palace (33.1%) is the closest match taking place this week, according to the supercomputer. At 30.0%, the chance of a draw in this one is the highest across the 10 matches. Just three points separates the teams in the Premier League table, with the sides having enjoyed contrasting fortunes over recent weeks. Palace have won four of their last five Premier League games, drawing the other, which is as many wins as they had managed in their previous 24 combined (D7 L13). The Eagles have scored four or more goals in two of their last four top-flight outings, which is as many times as they had achieved the feat in their previous 82 games, so Oliver Glasner has made a remarkable start. Wolves, meanwhile, have won just one of their last eight, but they do at least have home advantage in this one.
Nottingham Forest took a huge step towards safety by beating Sheff Utd last week, but now they have a much tougher test at home to surging Chelsea. Forest have not won consecutive Premier League games since beating Newcastle and Man Utd in December and they go into the weekend knowing a win would almost certainly seal safety (and they’ll know Luton’s result before they kick-off in this early evening clash).
Chelsea have won two in a row and been beaten in only one of their last 12 top-flight games. But in terms of away matches it’s five matches without a win for the Blues, with four draws in that span, while they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 14 road games, their last coming in a 2-0 win at rivals Fulham in October. Still, at 46.6%, Chelsea are well fancied to come out on top, but they should still expect a tricky trip to Nottingham as the hosts are given a 25.8% win probability, with the draw given a 27.6% chance.
Arsenal are given the edge over Man Utd at Old Trafford on Sunday, but they are more likely than not to drop points in the match, according to our predictive model. That is because the Gunners’ win probability is 42.8%, so Man Utd will like their chances of getting something out of the game, with their win hope at 29.0% and the draw a strong candidate at 28.2%.
The decent chance given to Man Utd may come as a surprise given their dismal 4-0 collapse at Crystal Palace, but the Red Devils have lost just one of their last 16 Premier League home games against Arsenal, with 10 wins in that stretch.
But Arsenal have at least found the net in each of their last nine league visits to Old Trafford and will be encouraged that United have conceded 81 goals in all competitions this season, their worst total in a single campaign for more than half a century (82 in 1970-71). The Gunners have kept 10 clean sheets away from home in the Premier League this season, last keeping more on the road in a single top-flight campaign in 1990-91 (13), and will be reliant on another resolute performance here if they are to keep their title dream alive. Bukayo Saka could prove key, as he has been involved in five EPL goals against United, with three goals and two assists. He has had a goal contribution in each of his last four appearances against the Red Devils.
What looks set to be an exciting Monday match between Aston Villa and Liverpool will conclude MD 37. Liverpool are well fancied by the Opta supercomputer, with a strong 45.7% win probability allocated to the Reds. Villa’s chance is down at 26.8% and a draw is rated as more likely than a Villa win at 27.5%.
Unai Emery’s team would probably take a point as they close in on UEFA Champions League football, having not won either of their last two EPL fixtures, meaning Liverpool go into the match 11 points clear of their opponents.
You would be wise not to tune in late for this match, as the last four meetings between Aston Villa and Liverpool at Villa Park in all competitions has seen the scoring opened within the first five minutes. No fixture in Premier League history has been won by the away side more often than Aston Villa vs Liverpool, with 22 of the 57 meetings between them being away wins.
Although they have the painful memory of losing 7-2 here in 2020, Liverpool have won more Premier League away games against Villa than they have vs any other opponent (16). Mohamed Salah looked more like himself against Spurs. He has both scored and assisted in four different Premier League games this season, with only Cole Palmer doing so more often (5).
Salah has done it 31 times overall in the Premier League, with only Wayne Rooney (36) and Thierry Henry (32) doing so more, and the Egypt international will be eager to build on his Spurs display with another big performance as he looks to end the campaign on a high.
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