The second match in Group A at the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations takes place on Sunday. We look ahead to it with our Nigeria vs Equatorial Guinea prediction and preview.
Nigeria vs Equatorial Guinea: Pre-Match Facts
- According to the Opta supercomputer, Nigeria are predicted to get their 2023 AFCON campaign off to a positive start, winning this match in 59.0% of pre-match simulations.
- This will be the first encounter between Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea at the CAF Africa Cup of Nations. However, they did face each other in the qualifiers for the 2010 FIFA World Cup – Nigeria won both matches (1-0; 2-0).
- Nigeria are making their 20th appearance at the Africa Cup of Nations. They have won the tournament on three occasions (1980, 1994, 2013) and reached the semi-finals in 14 of their last 17 AFCON participations.
- Nigeria were beaten finalists the last time the Africa Cup of Nations was held in Côte d’Ivoire. They lost 3-1 against Cameroon in 1984.
- Nigeria have won 12 of their last 15 matches at the Africa Cup of Nations (L3). Their last draw dates back to the 2013 group stages, against Zambia (1-1).
- Nigeria scored 22 goals in six games during qualifying for the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, the highest tally among the 24 teams at this year’s tournament. Ten of those goals came from Victor Osimhen – twice as many as any other player (four players on five goals).
- This is Equatorial Guinea’s fourth Africa Cup of Nations appearance, but it’s only the second time they have qualified as non-hosts. To date, they have always reached the knockout stages, reaching the quarter-finals in 2012 and 2021, and finishing fourth in 2015.
- Equatorial Guinea have never scored more than two goals in their previous 15 matches at the Africa Cup of Nations.
- Only two of Equatorial Guinea’s 11 goals at AFCON have been scored in the first half of matches.
- Osimhen was directly involved in 55% of Nigeria’s goals during the qualifying campaign (10 goals, two assists). That’s the highest tally of goals scored in the qualifying phase of an AFCON edition since Moumouni Dagano with Burkina Faso in 2010 (12 goals).
- Despite Osimhen scoring 10 of their 22 goals, Nigeria had 10 different goal scorers in qualifying for the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, more than any other team.
Match Preview
After Friday night’s tournament-opener between Ivory Coast and Guinea-Bissau, AFCON 2023 continues on Saturday with the second match in Group A, as Nigeria take on Equatorial Guinea.
Nigeria are AFCON veterans. This is their 20th appearance at the competition, and they have won it three times, with only three teams having won it more. They last won it in 2013, though, when they defeated Burkina Faso 1-0 in the final, and have only made it as far as the semi-finals on one occasion since (2019). However, the last time the tournament was held in the Ivory Coast in 1984, they made it to the final, where they were beaten by Cameroon.
The 1980s and 1990s were an AFCON golden era for the Super Eagles, as they included a run of eight tournaments in which Nigeria reached the final on five occasions. Since their 1994 triumph, however, they have only made it to the final twice in 14 AFCON tournaments.
Nigeria qualified for AFCON 2023 as winners of Group A, ahead of Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone and São Tomé and Príncipe. They finished the group with 15 points from their six games, with a loss to Guinea-Bissau representing the only points they dropped across their qualifying campaign.
Victor Osimhen was their key man, ending as the top goalscorer across all of AFCON qualifying, netting 10 times – twice as many as any other player – leading Nigeria to the best goal difference of any team (+22). Despite him scoring so many goals, Nigeria still had more different goalscorers (10) than any other team in AFCON qualifying.
Given that their last appearance at AFCON in 2021 ended with a surprise round of 16 defeat at the hands of Burkina Faso, they will be hoping that their strong showing in qualifying precipitates a better tournament this time around.
Equatorial Guinea, meanwhile, are playing in only their second AFCON tournament in which they have made it through qualifying rather than as hosts (their fourth tournament overall, having hosted twice – in 2012 and 2015).
They qualified for AFCON 2023 as runners-up in their group, beaten to top spot by Tunisia only on goal difference. They finished the group with 13 points from six matches, with their only defeat a 4-0 loss to Tunisia, also dropping points to Libya in a 1-1 draw in the final round of fixtures, which ultimately allowed Tunisia to leapfrog them and win the group.
Having made at least the quarter-final on each of their three previous AFCON appearances, Equatorial Guinea will hope to build on what was a decent showing in qualifying. They were quarter-finalists last time out in 2021, so may hold hope of at least a repeat of that performance.
Nigeria vs Equatorial Guinea Head-to-Head
This will be the first encounter between Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea at the Africa Cup of Nations. They did, however, meet in qualifying for the 2010 FIFA World Cup, with Nigeria winning both matches without conceding a goal (1-0 and 2-0).
Nigeria vs Equatorial Guinea Prediction
According to the Opta supercomputer, Nigeria are predicted to get their 2023 AFCON campaign off to a positive start, winning this match in 59.0% of pre-match simulations. Just 20.4% were won by Equatorial Guinea, leaving 20.6% of simulations to end in a draw.
In the week leading up to AFCON 2023, our pre-tournament predictions had Nigeria as the sixth favourites to win the competition. They won AFCON 2023 in 8.0% of the supercomputer’s simulations, behind favourites Senegal, Ivory Coast, Morocco, Algeria and Egypt.
Below are their current, up-to-date chances of progression through AFCON 2023 according to the Opta supercomputer:
Nigeria vs Equatorial Guinea Squads
Nigeria: Olorunleke Ojo, Stanley Nwabali, Francis Uzoho, Kenneth Omeruo, William Troost-Ekong, Semi Ajayi, Chidozie Awaziem, Calvin Bassey, Bruno Onyemaechi, Bright Osayi-Samuel, Ola Aina, Zaidu Sanusi, Alhassan Yusuf, Raphael Onyedika, Joe Aribo, Frank Onyeka, Moses Simon, Ahmed Musa, Alex Iwobi, Victor Osimhen, Kelechi Iheanacho, Samuel Chukwueze, Terem Moffi, Ademola Lookman, Umar Sadiq.
Coach: Jose Peseiro
Equatorial Guinea: Aitor Embela, Manuel Sapunga, Jesús Owono, Basilio Ndong, Carlos Akapo, Esteban Orozco, Néstor Senra, Marvin Anieboh, Emilio Nsue, José Elo, Charles Ondo, Féderico Bikoro, José Machín, Santiago Eneme, Pablo Ganet, Álex Balboa, Jannick Buyla, Iban Salvador, José Miranda, Salomón Obama, Noé Ela, Luís Asué.
Coach: Juan Michá
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