Liverpool bid to return to winning ways after frustrating results against Luton Town and Toulouse. We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League action at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Brentford prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs Brentford: The Quick Hits
- Liverpool are predicted to maintain their perfect home record for the season when they host Brentford, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 55.4% chance of victory.
- Jürgen Klopp’s men have won all five of their home Premier League matches this campaign. They have only started two previous seasons in the competition with six successive victories at Anfield, in 2019-20 (winning their first 17) and 2020-21 (first seven).
- Mohamed Salah has scored or assisted in each of his last 14 home Premier League games. Only Alan Shearer (twice) and Thierry Henry have ever done so in 15 in a row.
Match Preview
Liverpool have been the Premier League’s comeback kings in 2023-24, and their powers of recovery were needed again on Matchday 11 as Luis Díaz’s stoppage-time equaliser saw the Reds avoid a shock defeat at Luton Town. However, that 1-1 draw did see Jürgen Klopp’s men lose ground on Manchester City at the summit, so they will be desperate to respond when in-form Brentford visit Anfield on Sunday.
Díaz’s leveller at Kenilworth Road was an emotional moment for the winger, making his first appearance since his parents were kidnapped in his native Colombia, with his father being released on Thursday. Timed at 94 minutes and 40 seconds, his looping header was the latest equalising goal Liverpool have scored in the Premier League since December 2015, when Divock Origi memorably salvaged a 2-2 draw against West Bromwich Albion in Klopp’s eighth game in charge, scoring after 95 minutes and 24 seconds.
As well as recovering a league-high 11 points from losing positions this season, Liverpool have only lost one of their last 10 Premier League games when falling behind (four wins, five draws), their 2-1 defeat at Tottenham in September when reduced to nine men. The Reds failed to fight back in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday, however, losing 3-2 at Toulouse as a VAR check denied Jarell Quansah a dramatic equaliser.
Klopp was infuriated by Liverpool’s performance in France, saying they deserved to lose after a disorganised showing. The Reds boss will be forced to shuffle his pack again on Sunday, with Alexis Mac Allister serving a one-match domestic ban after accumulating five yellow cards. Ryan Gravenberch and Curtis Jones missed Thursday’s game with minor injuries, so Wataru Endō or Harvey Elliott could feature in Liverpool’s lineup. Defender Virgil van Dijk was also absent in France through illness, but Klopp has expressed confidence he will be available on Sunday.
At the other end of the pitch, Liverpool have seen both sides of Darwin Núñez in recent weeks, with the Uruguayan netting in three straight games before failing to score with nine shots totalling 0.9 expected goals (xG) at Luton, including one glaring miss in the second half. Núñez’s average xG per 90 of 0.85 is the highest of any player in the Premier League this season.
Alongside Núñez, Mohamed Salah could follow in the footsteps of two Premier League legends, having either scored (15 goals) or assisted (three) in each of his last 14 league appearances at Anfield. Only Alan Shearer and Thierry Henry have ever done so in more consecutive home games in the competition.
Henry contributed to a goal in 17 straight home fixtures for Arsenal between November 2002 and October 2003, while Shearer enjoyed an 18-game run with Blackburn Rovers between March 1995 and February 1996 and a separate 17-match streak between April 1996 and May 1997, moving to Newcastle United partway through his second run.
Liverpool may not have things all their own way against a resurgent Brentford team, however, with Thomas Frank’s men moving into the top half of the Premier League table by stringing together three successive wins after an underwhelming start to 2023-24.
Strikes from Neal Maupay and Nathan Collins, either side of Konstantinos Mavropanos’ own goal, helped the Bees to a 3-2 win in last Saturday’s topsy-turvy London derby against West Ham. Having beaten Chelsea 2-0 at Stamford Bridge the previous week, Brentford have earned 14 of their last 15 league victories in the capital, the exception being a 2-0 triumph at Southampton in March.
Maupay has now contributed to a goal in each of his last three Premier League games (one goal, two assists), after failing to record a single goal involvement in his previous 30. The Frenchman could score in back-to-back league matches for the first time since December 2021 this week.
Maupay’s return to form is a welcome sight for Brentford, lessening their reliance on Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa in the absence of suspended striker Ivan Toney and the injured Kevin Schade. Goalkeeper Mark Flekken could return on Sunday after suffering a dead leg, but Aaron Hickey is out until 2024 with a hamstring injury, joining fellow full-back Rico Henry on the sidelines.
Liverpool vs Brentford Head-to-Head
Liverpool have an excellent record in home games against Brentford, winning their last seven against the Bees at Anfield since suffering a 4-3 loss in November 1937, scoring 16 goals and only conceding once in those matches.
Indeed, Brentford have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 16 meetings with Liverpool across all competitions, since a goalless draw at Anfield in April 1936.
One of those Liverpool shutouts came when the teams last met in May, with the Reds clinching a 1-0-win at Anfield courtesy of Salah’s 100th home goal for the club.
However, Brentford did clinch a memorable 3-1 win over the Reds in January’s meeting in west London, with Wissa and Mbeumo both on target after Ibrahima Konaté put through his own net for the opener.
Recent Form
Liverpool boast an exceptional record at Anfield this season, winning all eight of their home games across all competitions, all by a margin of two or more goals.
They have only won nine successive home matches by two or more goals on one previous occasion in their history, between May and October 1980.
The hosts could also start a Premier League campaign with six consecutive home wins for just the third time, having previously done so in 2019-20 (when they won their first 17) and 2020-21 (first seven).
Brentford, though, arrive on Merseyside in high spirits, having won their last three Premier League games while scoring at least twice in each. The Bees haven’t won four successive top-flight matches since March 1939 (a run of five), and they have never done so while scoring multiple goals in every match.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Liverpool vs Brentford Prediction
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Liverpool were victorious in 55.4%. A win would see the Reds move level on points with Man City, at least temporarily before Pep Guardiola’s champions visit Chelsea for Sunday’s late kick-off.
Brentford are assigned just a 19.2% chance of a famous win, with 25.4% of our simulations seeing the points shared.
In the supercomputer’s season predictions, Liverpool’s 7.7% chance of winning the title makes them the most likely challengers to City, who top the pile in 87.6% of projections. The Reds are at least fancied for a return to the UEFA Champions League, having a 92% chance of a top-four finish.
Brentford, meanwhile, will have their eyes set on another top-half finish after recovering from a tricky start. Ninth (15.7%) is their most common position in our season simulations.
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