Everton need points and they need them fast if they are to avoid relegation, but it will likely take a big performance to get anything on the south coast. Here’s our Brighton vs Everton prediction and stats preview.
Brighton vs Everton: Quick Stats
- Brighton are predicted to win this match against Everton by the Opta supercomputer (49.4% chance of a victory).
- Everton have won just three league games since October and haven’t won away in their last 13 attempts.
- A victory for Brighton would be the first time they have won three league games in a row this season.
Match Preview
A trip to the seaside in May should be on all our bucket (and spade) lists, but perhaps won’t be for Sean Dyche, and not just because you might assume he burns easily.
In the middle of an intense relegation battle, the last thing a team in trouble really wants is to have to travel a long distance to face one of the most difficult teams to get points from in the Premier League. Roberto De Zerbi has the Seagulls playing some of the best football in England, and that was certainly on show when they walloped Everton 4-1 at Goodison Park in January.
Thursday’s dramatic 1-0 win against Manchester United was De Zerbi’s 12th Premier League win as Brighton manager in just his 26th game, as many as predecessor Graham Potter won in the entirety of last season.
Brighton are aiming to do the double against the Toffees for the first time, and it bodes well that they have won five of their seven Premier League games against sides in the relegation zone this season (D1 L1, both against Nottingham Forest).
In fact, they have scored seven goals in their last two Premier League games against Everton, just one fewer than they managed in their first nine against them in the competition (eight).
It was vital that Everton avoided defeat at Leicester City last time out as they scrapped for a 2-2 draw, but they will need more points if they are to make it two seasons in a row where they escape the clutches of relegation. It may not inspire much confidence that the Toffees are winless in their last 18 Premier League away games against sides in the top half of the table (D7 L11), though their last such victory was a 2-0 win at the Amex Stadium last season.
Dyche could hold the key to victory though, as the former Burnley boss is unbeaten in all five of his Premier League away games against Brighton (W2 D3), winning 3-0 in his most recent visit with the Clarets in February last year.
Last Meeting
Everton 1-4 Brighton: 3 January 2023 (Premier League)
A youthful Brighton, who named four players aged 21 or younger for the first time in a league game since May 2011, taught Everton something of a lesson at Goodison Park at the start of 2023.
Kaoru Mitoma opened the scoring in style after coming in off the left flank in the 14th minute, before Evan Ferguson stabbed home from close range early in the second half following fine work by Jeremy Sarmiento.
Everton suffered their heaviest home defeat in the Premier League since December 2021 (4-1 v Liverpool), while this was manager Frank Lampard’s heaviest home defeat as a manager in the competition.
Solly March showed great composure soon after to pick out the bottom-left corner, and Pascal Gross added further gloss in the 57th minute with a gorgeous finish to punish Idrissa Gueye’s undercooked pass.
Demarai Gray pulled one back from the spot after Alex Iwobi was clumsily felled by David Sanchez, but it was much too late to have any real impact as the Seagulls scored four goals in a top-flight away game for the first time ever.
It also secured Brighton their first ever run of three successive away victories in the top tier, while Everton were left reeling from their heaviest Premier League home defeat since December 2021.
Recent Form
Brighton come into this fresh of their home win against United thanks to a 99th-minute penalty from Alexis Mac Allister on Thursday. That win initially took them up to sixth in the table, but wins for Tottenham and Liverpool on Saturday saw them drop to seventh. They are just two points off Spurs in fifth and seven points off Liverpool in fourth, but have three games in hand on both of those sides.
A win here would actually be the first time Brighton have won three league games in a row this season, which has often seen them win once or twice and then stumble. Everton having had an extra three days’ rest between games could be a factor, but they will be mindful of their poor record on the road.
Everton are winless in 13 Premier League away games (D6 L7), though four of their last five have finished level. Of the 17 teams to play across both this campaign and in last season’s, the Toffees have won fewer away games (three), fewer away points (21) and scored fewer away goals (28) than any other Premier League side since the start of last season.
It is no wonder the blue half of Merseyside find themselves in this position, having only won three league games since the end of October, all 1-0 at Goodison Park (vs. Arsenal, Leeds United and Brentford), winless in seven (D4 L3) and sitting second from bottom.
They will need to find the spirit that eventually saw them safe under Frank Lampard this time last year, and soon.
Key Players
Brighton: Kaoru Mitoma
Japan international Mitoma has been one of the Premier League’s breakout stars this term, with his exhilarating style of play putting him among the competition’s best entertainers.
Although Brighton were victorious against Man Utd on Thursday, Mitoma didn’t have the easiest of games, with Aaron Wan-Bissaka once again doing a commendable job on the tricky winger.
Mitoma had 15 touches in the box against the Red Devils, the joint-most by a Brighton player in Premier League history, yet only two of his shots were on target and he created just one chance. The output was a little disappointing when you consider how much he had the ball in dangerous areas.
While the rest of his team-mates looked jovial at full-time, there was a ruefulness written across Mitoma’s face. He’ll surely be eager to bounce back, and Everton could offer a swift opportunity to do just that.
The Toffees have lost first-choice right-back and Premier League stalwart Seamus Coleman for the rest of the season, meaning the inexperienced – albeit feisty – Nathan Patterson is likely to deputise.
Patterson, who struggled during the January meeting, could be in for a long day given how much Mitoma loves to run with the ball. Among wingers and wide midfielders, he ranks fourth for progressive carries over 10 metres (120) and carries with take-ons (64), while only Bukayo Saka (2,831m) has progressed play more than the Brighton star (2,807m) through ball carries.
Thursday was frustrating for him, but don’t be surprised if he explodes again with Everton come to town.
Everton: Jordan Pickford
No team has managed more shots on target at home in the Premier League this season than Brighton; similarly, only Liverpool and the top three have a better non-penalty expected goals (xG) record than the Seagulls (30.8) in front of their own fans in 2022-23.
Brighton’s average ball possession at home (60.4%) is also right up there, with Manchester City (64.7%) and Arsenal (64.4%) the two teams with stronger such records.
Essentially, Monday’s game could be pretty gruelling for an Everton side who are in deep trouble and poor form.
Pickford can expect to be kept very busy, and it’s fair to suggest he’ll likely need to have a brilliant game if Everton – who have faced the second-most shots away from home in the Premier League this season (288) – are to taking anything from the Amex Stadium.
To Pickford’s credit, he’s arguably one of few Everton players who’s having a decent season, with his goals prevented total of 3.9 – including his recent huge penalty save against James Maddison – bettered by only three goalkeepers in the Premier League.
But he won’t be able to do it all himself.
Brighton vs Everton Prediction
It is little surprise that the Opta supercomputer has decided the hosts are favourites for this one, with Brighton given a 49.4% chance of securing that elusive third win in a row. Dyche’s men are given a 22.9% of claiming what would be an incredibly important three points, while a draw that would still be considered a decent result for them is given a 27.7% chance.
To be honest, that feels generous for Everton given their atrocious away form and Brighton’s dismantling of them a few months ago, but this is the Premier League, where anything can happen.
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