Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain clash in the second leg of their round of 16 UEFA Champions League tie on Wednesday night at the Allianz Arena, Munich. We preview the match and look at the prediction via the Opta supercomputer.
Bayern Munich vs PSG: The Quick Hits
- Bayern Munich are the favourites for this UCL match with the Opta supercomputer (50.3%) and expected to win both legs against PSG.
- Lionel Messi looking to become just the second player to score 50 UEFA Champions League knockout stage goals.
- Paris Saint-Germain have already lost more competitive matches in 2023 (five) than they did in 2022 (four).
Match Preview
Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain will meet for the 13th time in the UEFA Champions League, this time with PSG needing to turn around a 1-0 first-leg defeat at home in order to make it through to the quarter-finals. The reigning Ligue 1 champions should know their opposition well, with this meeting making Bayern their most frequent opponents in the competition.
Bayern’s victory in Paris on 14 February has given them a big advantage coming into this second leg at home. They’ve been eliminated just twice on the 22 previous occasions that they’ve won the first leg of a UCL knockout tie, going out to Real Madrid (2001-02 quarter-final) and Inter Milan (2010-11 round of 16). PSG’s loss last month was just the sixth time they’ve been defeated in the first leg of a UEFA Champions League in 19 knockout ties. They’ve progressed just once from this position, and that happened at this stage of the tournament against Borussia Dortmund in 2019-20.
Previous Meeting
Paris Saint-Germain 0-1 Bayern Munich – 14 February 2023 (UEFA Champions League)
It was Bundesliga beats Ligue 1 in the battle of the reigning league champions on Valentine’s Day, with Bayern Munich enjoying a 1-0 win over Christophe Galtier’s PSG at Parc des Princes in the first leg of this last 16 UCL tie.
Kingsley Coman’s 53rd-minute strike was the difference, with the Frenchman volleying home under Gianluigi Donnarumma’s body. Paris Saint-Germain thought they’d rescued a draw with eight minutes remaining, but VAR ruled out Kylian Mbappé’s strike for offside.
Coman – who also scored the winner in the 2019-20 UCL final for Bayern against PSG – has now played 50 games in the competition, with the first leg seeing him end on the winning team for the 39th occasion. This is the most wins by a player in their opening 50 UCL matches.
Paris Saint-Germain’s first shot of the game didn’t come until stoppage time in the first half, which was their longest wait for a shot in recorded history within a game in the competition (108 games since 2004-05).
Aged 16 years and 343 days, Paris Saint-Germain’s Warren Zaïre-Emery was the youngest player to start a UEFA Champions League knockout match, breaking the previous record set by Bojan in April 2008 for Barcelona vs FC Schalke 04 (17 years, 217 days). He started alongside Lionel Messi and Sergio Ramos for PSG, both of whom made their UEFA Champions League debuts before he was born.
Benjamin Pavard was sent off in injury time for Bayern Munich and will miss this game through suspension.
Recent Form
Paris Saint-Germain have lost five games of their 14 matches in all competitions in 2023, one more than they lost in the entirety of 2022 (four in 46 games). Their fifth loss came in the first-leg defeat to Bayern, with three successive Ligue 1 victories since then: 4-3 against Lille, 3-0 at Marseille and 4-2 at home to Nantes.
They have lost half of their eight competitive away matches in 2023 so far, falling to Lens, Rennes and Monaco in Ligue 1 in addition to a Coupe de France defeat in Marseille.
After suffering a shock 3-2 defeat to Borussia Mönchengladbach on 18 February – four days after their UCL win over PSG – Bayern Munich have bounced back with back-to-back league wins over Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart.
The record German champions have an enviable home record, having remained unbeaten there in 23 successive matches since their opening game of 2022, which they lost 2-1 to Gladbach in the league. Since then, they’ve won 16 and drawn seven with 10 clean sheets.
Bayern have scored in each of their last 22 competitive matches (3.14 goals per game), last failing to score in their 1-0 away defeat at FC Augsburg on 17 September in the Bundesliga.
As for recent competition form, Bayern were the only team in the 2022-23 Champions League group stage to win every single match, as they collected all 18 possible points against Serie A side Internazionale, LaLiga giants Barcelona and Czech club Viktoria Plzeň in Group C.
Those six wins saw them score 18 goals and concede just twice, while they’ll be looking to win their first eight matches in a single UCL campaign for just the second time, after their astonishing 2019-20 campaign in which they won all 11 games.
Among all teams to reach the knockout stage of the UCL this season, PSG are the only side that have failed to keep a clean sheet in the competition in 2022-23.
Key Players
Bayern Munich: Jamal Musiala
Jamal Musiala is currently one of the most exciting young talents in world football. The German international only turned 20 years old at the end of February, but he’s already been involved in 36 Bundesliga goals (22 goals, 14 assists) across his young career.
Whilst his impact in the UEFA Champions League hasn’t been as big – with just four goal involvements in 20 apps, there’s no doubt that Musiala is one of the biggest threats to PSG’s further advancement in the 2022-23 competition.
With 26 goal involvements across all competitions in 2022-23 (15 goals, 11 assists), he leads Bayern Munich’s goal contribution rankings ahead of Serge Gnabry (21), Eric Choupo-Moting (20) and Leroy Sané (17). He is also their leading chance creator from open play (52).
Paris Saint-Germain: Lionel Messi
Cometh the hour, cometh the man. Paris Saint-Germain certainly need a goal in order to stand any chance of winning this tie and making it to the quarter-finals, so what better time for Lionel Messi to step up and produce the goods (again).
Messi is looking to become just the second player in Champions League history to score 50 knockout-stage goals (currently 49 in 76 appearances) after Cristiano Ronaldo (67 in 85).
While team-mate Mbappé is looking to become the first player to ever score in three successive away games against Bayern, Messi has a great record against German clubs in the competition. His 19 goals against Bundesliga sides in UCL history is only bettered by Ronaldo (28).
Alongside Neymar, Messi has scored the most goals in UCL history against Bayern (four) in PSG’s current squad. They’ll be hoping he can increase that tally on Wednesday night.
Messi suffered a tricky first season in Paris, but there’s no doubt his second season has been a vast improvement. He’s been involved in 34 goals (18 goals, 16 assists) in 29 games across all competitions – that’s nine goal involvements more than in 2021-22 (25 in 34 games).
Bayern Munich vs PSG Prediction
The Opta supercomputer fancies more Bayern Munich success in this second leg, with the Bundesliga club being given a 50.3% chance of winning this match – a higher chance than a draw or PSG win combined (49.7%).
A draw (21.7%) would be no good to Paris Saint-Germain following their 1-0 first-leg loss at home, so it’s win or bust for the French club.
With Bayern’s last three wins against PSG all coming via a 1-0 scoreline, that might be a good pick for any bets on specific score.
Bayern are still the top club in world football according to the Opta Power Rankings, while they are also the favourites for the 2022-23 UCL overall, at 26.9% ahead of Manchester City (18.1%) and Napoli (16.7%).
PSG are being given a 2.5% chance of winning the UEFA Champions League for the first time, which is behind Benfica (3.5%), Borussia Dortmund (5.2%), Internazionale (6.5%) and Real Madrid (11.9%).
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