How our projection model works: TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency metric that evaluates how well a team performs based on who it plays. The model, which is trained on over 10 years of data, is based on an EPA (expected points added) calculation weighed by who teams play. A team with a TRACR of 0.0 is considered an average team in the FBS. Let”s say TCU has a TRACR of 14.0 and Indiana is at 0.0. If they played each other at a neutral site, the most likely outcome would be TCU winning by 14 points.