Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich clash in the first leg of their round of 16 UEFA Champions League tie on Tuesday night at Parc des Princes, Paris. We preview the match and look at the prediction via the Opta supercomputer.
PSG vs Bayern Munich: The Quick Hits
- The Opta supercomputer predicts that Bayern Munich will pick up an away win in Paris in this UCL last 16 encounter.
- Bayern Munich remain the supercomputer favourites for the UEFA Champions League trophy in 2022-23.
- PSG sweating on the fitness of key players Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé for this match on Tuesday night.
Match Preview
This will be the 12th competitive meeting between PSG and Bayern Munich, with all 11 previous encounters also coming in the UEFA Champions League. The head-to-head record between the pair is nearly evenly split, with Paris Saint-Germain’s six wins just outshining Bayern’s five (one draw).
In fact, of all six teams who have faced Bayern Munich on 10 or more occasions in the Champions League, Paris Saint-Germain have the highest win percentage against them (55% – six of 11).
PSG have had a much better time at home than away against Bayern Munich, with the French club winning four of their five previous matches at Parc des Princes. The other game of those five ended in a defeat, but even that loss was a positive for the Ligue 1 club, as Bayern’s 1-0 win wasn’t enough to see them advance to the semi-finals in April 2021 and PSG went through on away goals.
Bayern coach Julian Nagelsmann is still only 35 years old but has 40 UEFA Champions League games under his belt as a manager. Overall, he’s won 58% of UCL games making him just one of nine coaches to win as high a proportion of matches in the competition having taken charge of at least 40 games.
PSG’s Christophe Galtier failed to win any of his UCL games in charge of Lille in 2019-20 but has secured four victories in six games as PSG boss in the competition this season. It’ll be hard to build upon those four, however. Since the start of the 2019-20 season, Bayern Munich have the highest win percentage (86.5%) and the most total victories (32) of any team in the UCL. Indeed, despite playing 37 matches in the competition during this period, no team have lost fewer games than them (two).
Previous Meeting
Paris Saint-Germain 0-1 Bayern Munich – 13 April 2021 (UEFA Champions League)
These two clubs only met in the UEFA Champions League two seasons ago, with PSG knocking Bayern out of the competition at the quarter-final stage on away goals after a 3-3 aggregate scoreline over two legs.
Following an enthralling encounter at the Allianz Arena in the first leg, which ended 3-2 to PSG, the French team lost 1-0 to the Bundesliga giants at Parc des Princes but still advanced through to the semi-finals for the second season in a row, thanks to the away goal rule.
Kylian Mbappé scored either side of Marquinhos in the 3-2 win, with Eric Choupo-Moting and Thomas Müller netting for the hosts. That win in Munich saw Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern away from home for the first time in the competition since November 1994, having suffered three successive defeats there before this quarter-final win.
A week later, Bayern’s 1-0 away win at PSG in France – courtesy of another Choupo-Moting goal –wasn’t enough to see them through, as they became the third successive reigning UCL champions to fail to reach at least the semis of the competition. Paris Saint-Germain eventually got knocked out in the next round against Premier League side Manchester City.
PSG’s elimination of Bayern gave them some revenge over the Germans, following the Bavarians’ 1-0 win over the Ligue 1 club in the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League final, with Kingsley Coman’s goal the only one of the game.
Recent Form
Bayern Munich are currently on a 19-game unbeaten run across all competitions (W15 D4), with their last competitive defeat coming on 17 September 2022 versus Augsburg in the Bundesliga (1-0). This is their longest unbeaten competitive run since 20 games without a defeat between September 2020 and January 2021 under former boss Hansi Flick.
Their last three games have seen them win and score at least three goals in each victory (11 overall), with a 4-0 DFB Pokal win over Mainz followed up by league victories against Wolfsburg (4-2) and Bochum (3-0). Across these three games in February so far, Kingsley Coman has scored three times, while team-mates Jamal Musiala (two goals, one assist) and Thomas Müller (two goals, one assist) have also had a hand in three of their 11 goals.
Paris Saint-Germain head into this match after two successive defeats in the space of four days – a 2-1 Coupe de France loss to Marseille followed by a weekend defeat in Monaco (3-1). They haven’t lost three competitive matches in a row since September 2020, with the first in that run of losses coming against Bayern Munich in the Champions League.
PSG’s home form is a different story. The Ligue 1 club are unbeaten in their last 40 games at home across all competitions (W33 D7), with their last competitive defeat at Parc de Princes coming in April 2021 versus Man City in the Champions League (2-1). They have scored in 23 successive home games in all competitions, at an average of 2.56 goals per game.
As for recent competition form, Bayern were the only team in the 2022-23 Champions League group stage to win every single match, as they collected all 18 possible points versus Serie A side Internazionale, LaLiga giants Barcelona and Czech club Viktoria Plzeň in Group C.
Those six wins saw them score 18 goals and concede just twice, while they’ll be looking to win their first seven matches in a single UCL campaign for just the second time, after their astonishing 2019-20 campaign in which they won all 11 games.
Paris Saint-Germain have only failed to score in one of their last 32 home games in the UEFA Champions League (averaging 2.6 goals per game), though the exception in this run was in a 0-1 defeat against Bayern Munich in the 2020-21 quarter-final second leg.
At the other end of the pitch, among all teams to reach the knockout stage in this season’s UEFA Champions League, PSG are the only side without a clean sheet in the competition in 2022-23.
Players to Watch
Paris Saint-Germain: Kylian Mbappé
There are serious doubts that Kylian Mbappé will even make this match, after missing PSG’s last three competitive games following his injury on 1 February against Montpellier. However, with Lionel Messi also suffering from injury (but possibly returning for this game) and Neymar unable to be relied on for his fitness at times, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Mbappé rushed back for this UCL tie.
Mbappé has scored 25 goals in 26 competitive appearances for PSG this season – one of only four players within the top five European leagues in 2022-23 with at least 20 goals, alongside Man City’s Erling Haaland, Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski and Man Utd’s Marcus Rashford.
Mbappé is currently on a four-game run without a goal in all competitions, which is his worst run since October 2021 – he hasn’t gone five without a goal since a run of six appearances between March and May 2018. Since the start of the 2017-18 season – his first at Paris Saint-Germain – Mbappé has been directly involved in 57 goals in 50 appearances in the UEFA Champions League (34 goals and 23 assists). Indeed, he is the only player with at least 20 goals and at least 20 assists during this period.
Bayern Munich: Joshua Kimmich
With both PSG and Bayern among the teams to average the highest possession figures in the top five European leagues in 2022-23, it’ll be important for both sides to have a controlling figure in the middle of the pitch. In Joshua Kimmich, Bayern certainly have that.
Across the top five European leagues in 2022-23, Kimmich is only of only 14 players to have played at least 1,000 minutes and completed at least 72% of passes, while in the Bayern team he’s been the most heavily involved in their attacking open-play sequences across all competitions this season.
Of his team-high 183 sequences involvements, 119 (65%) have seen his only involvement being in the build-up to a shot (not the chance created or the shot itself). The work he puts in might go unnoticed due to his relatively low attacking output (three goals, four assists), but he’s integral to the way Nagelsmann’s side play.
Those 183 open play attacking sequence involvements are at least 30 more than any other team-mate, ahead of the Bayern creative powerhouses Jamal Musiala (153), Serge Gnabry (147), Leroy Sane (138) and Alphonso Davies (121).
PSG vs Bayern Munich Prediction
The Opta Supercomputer thinks that the reigning champions of Germany will defeat the reigning champions of France in this match, despite the game being held in Paris. Bayern are being given a 41.7% likelihood of victory, compared to PSG’s 34%.
Bayern are also strong favourites to win their fourth Champions League crown – and seventh overall, if including European Cups – this season by the supercomputer. Nagelsmann’s side are given a 25.87% chance of glory, ahead of Manchester City (18.87%), Serie A leaders Napoli (10.76%), reigning UCL winners Real Madrid (7.22%) and Liverpool (6.51%). Paris Saint-Germain haven’t helped themselves by failing to win their group. They ended up finishing behind Portuguese giants Benfica on away goals scored in Group H, ahead of Juventus and Maccabi Haifa, but with second-place qualifiers for the last 16 not seeded in the draw, it was always likely to be a tough tie whoever they faced.
The French side are given a 3.62% chance of winning the 2022-23 UCL, which is the eighth highest likelihood of glory, just ahead of Premier League club Chelsea (3.48%).
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