Which teams will make it through the league phase of the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League and into the knockouts? You can find the Opta supercomputer’s Champions League predictions and points projections on this page.
The UEFA Champions League is back, although Europe’s elite club competition has a very different look for the 2024-25 season.
Not only has the tournament increased from 32 to 36 teams, but we have a new format to get used to as well.
The previous group stage of four teams in eight pools has been replaced by a league phase in which all clubs will play eight matches, two more than before, and are ranked in a single 36-team table.
Finishing in the top eight ensures immediate qualification for the last 16, while the teams between ninth and 24th will contest the new Champions League play-off round for the right to join the leading sides in the prestigious knockout stage.
There is no more Europa League safety net either – the bottom 12 from the 36 and the eight teams who lose in the play-off round will all be immediately eliminated from continental football for this season.
The Opta supercomputer is able to simulate the 2024-25 UCL league phase 50,000 times to work out the projected points tallies of every team and their likelihood of making it through to the knockouts.
Here are its latest Champions League predictions for the league phase of the competition:
* Updated on 20 September following Matchday 1
Real Madrid entered the revamped competition as defending champions. The 15-time winners triumphed in two of the last three seasons and have now added Kylian Mbappé to their ranks, too.
The teams Madrid beat in those two finals – Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund – are also involved, as are 2022-23 European champions Manchester City, their English Premier League title rivals Arsenal and continental heavyweights from La Liga like Barcelona, the Bundesliga‘s Bayern Munich, Inter Milan from Serie A and Ligue 1 giants Paris Saint-Germain.
There are four teams competing in Europe’s biggest competition for the first time: Bologna, Brest, Girona and Slovan Bratislava; meanwhile, Aston Villa are also Champions League debutants but have been at Europe’s top table before, having previously been crowned champions of Europe (in 1982) when the tournament was known as the European Cup.
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