A place in the Euro 2024 final awaits for the winners in Munich. We look ahead to Tuesday’s clash with our Spain vs France prediction and preview.
Spain vs France Stats: The Key Insights
- Spain are the narrow favourites against France, winning 38.2% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- France forward Kylian Mbappé has scored just one goal from 20 shots at Euro 2024.
- Spain are the only team to win all five matches at this edition but no side has ever won six times in a single European Championship tournament, or six Euros games in a row.
Spain and France are both one game away from the Euro 2024 final ahead of Tuesday’s last-four clash, as the pair head to Munich in contrasting form but with the same target in mind.
Luis de la Fuente’s side are the only team to have triumphed in all five matches of this tournament in Germany, edging past Julian Nagelsmann’s hosts in the quarter-finals with a 2-1 extra-time victory.
Dani Olmo opened the scoring early in the second half before a late Florian Wirtz equaliser forced extra time, only for Mikel Merino to prove the unlikely hero with his 119th-minute headed winner.
That Merino magic snatched a fifth straight win for La Roja, though no team in European Championship history has won six matches in a single tournament and no side has ever triumphed in six Euro games in a row.
France boss Didier Deschamps will be well aware that De la Fuente’s men are the form side, having won 15 of their 19 matches since the start of 2023. In that period, Spain’s 79% win rate is the best of any European nation.
Inspired by the likes of wing wizards Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, Spain have also won their last seven games in a row, last winning more consecutively between June 2009 and June 2010 (12).
Yamal has created 14 chances for his Spain teammates at this competition, the most by a Spaniard at a major tournament since Xavi at Euro 2012 (25). That tally of opportunities provided for his teammates is also the most by a teenager at a major tournament since Opta records began (1966 for the World Cup, 1980 for Euros).
The Barcelona winger has managed three assists from those chances, including Friday’s inch-perfect pass for Olmo, with no Spanish player ever registering more at a single European Championship tournament.
Yet this is not a traditional Spanish side, with possessional dominance sacrificed for clinical efficiency up top and defensive tenacity at the back.
Spain have registered lower possession totals than their opponents in two of their five Euro 2024 matches (48% vs Germany, 47% vs Croatia). That is more times than they’d done so across 44 games at major tournaments between the 2006 and 2022 World Cups (once in the Euro 2008 final vs Germany, 46%).
Regardless of the method, Spain will be aiming to reach a fifth European Championship final, with only Germany (6) managing more. The Spaniards have progressed from four of five semi-finals but lost on penalties to eventual winners Italy at this stage at Euro 2020.
France will be looking to reach their fourth Euros final, having done so in 1984, 2000 and 2016, but only the second not played on French soil (Euro 2000 in the Netherlands).
In stark contrast to the Spanish, however, Les Bleus have failed to impress so far at this edition. Deschamps’ men scraped past Portugal on penalties after a drab goalless draw on Friday, with France again failing to find the net.
There have only been four goals scored in France’s five Euro 2024 matches (three for, one against), with those either penalties (2) or own goals (2).
All 128 non-penalty shots have failed to be scored (86 for France, 42 for opponents), while France are the only team on record since 1980 to have more than 50 non-penalty shots at a Euros and fail to find the net with any of them.
Those attacking struggles can somewhat be apportioned to the form of Kylian Mbappé, who has scored just one goal from 20 shots in this tournament with a penalty on MD 3 against Poland.
Indeed, the Real Madrid-bound forward has scored just once from 34 attempts at the European Championship overall (3%), whereas he has managed 12 goals from 39 shots (a 31% shot conversion rate) at the World Cup.
Deschamps’ defensive success, however, can be credited to Mike Maignan. The French stopper has a 94% save percentage in this competition, the best of any goalkeeper to feature more than once.
Maignan’s impressive efforts are the best by a goalkeeper at a Euros tournament since Iker Casillas in 2012 with that year’s winners Spain (also 94%), and expect the Frenchman to be tested again on Tuesday.
Spain vs France Head-to-Head
These two teams are no strangers to one another at major tournaments, with Tuesday set to be the sixth such meeting between the pair.
France won three of the first four, triumphing 2-0 in the Euro 1984 final on home soil, 2-1 in the 2000 quarter-final of the same competition and 3-1 in the 2006 World Cup round of 16.
Spain were victorious in the most recent clash, a 2-0 quarter-final victory en route to Euro 2012 glory, while the other meeting ended as a 1-1 draw in the 1996 group stage of UEFA’s top international tournament.
Having already met in every other possible round of action at major tournaments, this semi-final will make Spain vs France just the third fixture to be played at each stage of the World Cup and Euros, along with Italy vs Spain and England vs Germany.
Spain vs France Prediction
The Opta supercomputer backed Spain as the slight favourites for this one, with La Roja winning 38.2% and France triumphing in 31.8% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
A draw would send this tie to extra time, as was the case in three of four quarter-finals, with that result forecast in 30% of data-led sims.
Spain vs France Squads
Spain
Álex Remiro, David Raya, Unai Simón, Álex Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Dani Carvajal, Dani Vivian, Jesús Navas, Marc Cucurella, Nacho, Robin Le Normand, Álex Baena, Fabián Ruiz, Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Álvaro Morata, Ayoze Pérez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Joselu, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.
Head coach: Luis de la Fuente
France
Alphonse Areola, Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Jonathan Clauss, Jules Koundé, Théo Hernández, William Saliba, Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, N’Golo Kanté, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Youssouf Fofana, Antoine Griezmann, Bradley Barcola, Kingsley Coman, Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembélé, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Didier Deschamps
Spain vs France Predicted Lineups
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