Who has the best chance of advancing out of the two NBA conference finals? What storylines should we be watching as the final four vie for spots in the Finals? We answer those questions and more while revealing our NBA playoff predictions.
We’ll take any correct NBA playoff predictions that we can take.
As we so boldly predicted in our conference semifinals preview, the number of teams that entered the round (eight) has now been sliced in half (four) at the conclusion of the stage.
So let’s keep the momentum going.
With the semifinals behind us, let’s turn our attention toward the NBA conference finals. Fortunately for the fans, the final four teams standing are far from the obvious candidates. Sure, one could have reasonably foreseen the Boston Celtics and the Minnesota Timberwolves (if not the defending champ Denver Nuggets, that is) advancing to this round. However, the Indiana Pacers – the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference – and the Dallas Mavericks – the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference – had to win two series without home court advantage to get where they are now.
Which two teams have the best chance of making it out of the NBA conference finals?
What storylines should we be watching out for in the East and West matchups?
We answer those questions and more in our 2024 NBA playoff predictions, utilizing the TRACR projection model for the probability of advancement with each team. The two series winners will advance to the NBA Finals, beginning June 7.
Eastern Conference Finals
No. 1 Boston Celtics vs. No. 6 Indiana Pacers
- First Round – Boston Celtics: Beat Miami Heat 4-1; Indiana Pacers: Beat Milwaukee Bucks 4-2
- Second Round – Boston: Beat Cleveland Cavaliers 4-1. Indiana: Beat New York Knicks 4-3
- Regular-Season Records – Boston: 64-18; Indiana: 47-35
- Head-to-Head Record – Boston 3-2
- Schedule (All Times ET) – Game 1: May 21 at Boston (8 p.m., ESPN2); Game 2: May 23 at Boston (8 p.m., ESPN); Game 3: May 25 at Indiana (8:30 p.m., ABC); Game 4: May 27 at Indiana (8 p.m., ESPN2); Game 5 (if necessary): May 29 at Boston (8 p.m., ESPN); Game 6 (if necessary): May 31 at Indiana (8 p.m., ESPN); Game 7 (if necessary): June 2 at Boston (8 p.m., ESPN)
- Team Ratings – Boston: No. 1 in O-TRACR, No. 3 in D-TRACR, No. 1 in TRACR; Indiana: No. 2 in O-TRACR, No. 23 in D-TRACR, No. 5 in TRACR
- DRIP Leaders – Boston: Jayson Tatum (3.5); Indiana: Tyrese Haliburton (3.3)
- PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Boston: Jayson Tatum (26.9)/Jayson Tatum (8.1)/Derrick White (5.2); Indiana: Pascal Siakam (21.3)/Pascal Siakam (7.8)/Tyrese Haliburton (10.9).
Storyline No. 1 – Kristaps Porzingis: Porzingis hasn’t played since April 29, missing six playoff games in that time span. According to recent reporting, Porzingis is expected to miss the first two games of the Eastern Conference finals, but there’s hope for him to return later in the series. As we’ve discussed before, Porzingis is arguably Boston’s second-best player (second on the team in DRIP). His absence wasn’t really felt in the first two rounds – mainly because their opponents were dealing with serious injury issues themselves – but the Celtics will likely need him to return at some point in this series if they hope to contain Indiana’s high-octane offense (second in O-TRACR).
Storyline No. 2 – Bench Points: Even without Porzingis, the Celtics have one of the best starting lineups in basketball (Derrick White, Jrue Holiday, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford), and it’s stronger than the Pacers’ first five. The good news for the Pacers is they can make up the ground with their superior bench. This postseason, the Pacers rank No. 1 (out of 16 teams) in bench points per game (33.2), with the Celtics a pedestrian seventh (21.6). If Porzingis doesn’t return to action and Horford is forced to stay in the starting five, the Celtics are going to have to rely on Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser and Luke Kornet to keep pace (no pun intended) with the likes of T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Obi Toppin and Isaiah Jackson.
Storyline No. 3 – Midwest Magic Johnson: Boston finished the regular season with the best offense (first in O-TRACR) in the NBA. Meanwhile, Indiana sits 23rd in D-TRACR, so it will be hard for the Pacers to slow down the Celtics (although the Pacers have been better on that end of the floor since adding Pascal Siakam). This means that the Pacers will probably need to win this series in a shootout. To do this, they’ll need to lean on their lead conductor, Tyrese Haliburton (whom I’ve gifted with the moniker “Midwest Magic Johnson”). The All-Star is one of the best engines in the game (12th in O-DRIP), and during the playoffs, he’s (mostly) risen to the challenge of being a No. 1 option in his first postseason, averaging 18.8 points and 8.1 assists with 62.3% true shooting, a net rating of plus-6.7 and an offensive rating of 123.1 (10 points better than the playoff league average). Now, Haliburton has his toughest challenge yet (Boston is third in D-TRACR). Is “Midwest Magic” up for the challenge? Or will Boston orchestrate a superstar shutdown?
Win Probability (as of May 20) – Boston: 81.5%; Indiana: 18.5%
Western Conference Finals
No. 3 Minnesota Timberwolves vs. No. 5 Dallas Mavericks
- First Round – Minnesota Timberwolves: Beat Phoenix Suns 4-0; Dallas Mavericks: Beat Los Angeles Clippers 4-2
- Second Round – Minnesota: Beat Denver Nuggets 4-3; Dallas: Beat Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2
- Regular-Season Records – Boston: 56-26; Dallas: 50-32
- Schedule (All Times ET) – Game 1: May 22 at Minnesota (8:30 p.m., TNT); Game 2: May 24 at Minnesota (8:30 p.m., TNT); Game 3: May 26 at Dallas (8 p.m., TNT); Game 4: May 28 at Dallas (8:30 p.m., TNT); Game 5 (if necessary): May 30 at Minnesota (8:30 p.m., TNT); Game 6 (if necessary): June 1 at Dallas (8:30 p.m., TNT); Game 7 (if necessary): June 3 at Minnesota (8:30 p.m., TNT)
- Head-to-Head Record – Minnesota 3-1
- Team Ratings – Minnesota: No. 14 in O-TRACR, No. 1 in D-TRACR, No. 2 in TRACR; Dallas: No. 3 in O-TRACR, No. 11 in D-TRACR, No. 6 in TRACR
- DRIP Leaders – Minnesota: Rudy Gobert (2.9); Dallas: Luka Doncic (6.1)
- PPG/RPG/APG Leaders – Minnesota: Anthony Edwards (25.9)/Rudy Gobert (12.9)/Mike Conley (5.9); Dallas: Luka Doncic (33.9)/Luka Doncic (9.2)/Luka Doncic (9.8).
Storyline No. 1 – Defending Doncic: Not only is Doncic the Mavericks’ leader in DRIP, he’s No. 1 overall in the NBA in the metric. While I wouldn’t argue he’s a better offensive player than three-time MVP Nikola Jokic of the Nuggets, he may be the more-difficult player type for Minnesota’s defense. The Timberwolves have a troika of big bodies in Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid that could take turns throwing at Jokic (plus, Kyle Anderson from time to time). All of those guys are too slow to take on Doncic as a primary assignment. On top of that, all of the Wolves’ best perimeter defenders (Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Anthony Edwards) are either too frail or too short to make for a great neutralizing agent against Doncic. How does the league’s best defense plan to guard the league’s best floor general?
Storyline No. 2 – Gobert’s Offense: This postseason, Gobert has dispelled all the narratives that were spun about how his defense translates to the game’s second season. What he hasn’t completely done yet is prove his offense isn’t a detriment against high-level competition. He finished the regular season with 285 offensive rebounds, but also with a negative O-DRIP (-0.4) because he struggles as a roll man, short roll passer and post-up punisher against mismatches. In the playoffs, this becomes a problem because teams can get away with switching smaller defenders onto Gobert without him burning them in the paint. Will Dallas be able to do that in in the Western Conference finals (thereby mitigating Gobert’s vast defensive contributions for the Wolves)? Or is Gobert going to add this to the list of myths he’s debunked this postseason?
Storyline No. 3 – Role Player Shooting: In a make-or-miss league, this is basically a storyline in every playoff series. But it’s especially the case in any series involving the Mavs. Given the nature of their roster – two offensive stars and a cavalcade of role players – defenses have a tendency of loading up on Doncic and Kyrie Irving and daring the rest of the gang to beat them. Against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the OKC Thunder, PJ Washington (46.9% on 3-point attempts), Derrick Jones Jr. (37%) and Josh Green (37%) all rose to the occasion. The issue is that Washington (32% 3-point shooter in the regular season) and Jones (34.3%) don’t always shoot that well (Green actually shot right around his season average – 38.5% – for the series). What does Dallas’ offense look like if those role players experience some regression to the mean? And on the flip side, how will Minnesota’s role players (McDaniels, Alexander-Walker, Reid and Mike Conley) shoot from 3 themselves once the West series tips off Wednesday night?
Win Probability (as of May 20) – Minnesota: 70.3%; Dallas: 29.7%
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