From high hopes to an all-too-familiar feeling, it’s been a rapid descent for this year’s edition of the New York Jets.
With future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers back for what’s basically his first season in New York after missing most of the 2023 with a torn Achilles, our projection model calculated the Jets’ chances of making the playoffs at 59.5%, their win total at 9.3 and their likelihood of playing for the Lombardi Trophy in February in New Orleans at 7.8%.
Heading into their Week 3 matchup against the New England Patriots, the Jets had the fifth-highest probability of winning the Super Bowl at 5.1%. And after a dominant 24-3 win over the Pats, our model tabbed the 2-1 Jets as the favorites in the AFC.
But a lot can change in just two weeks in the NFL. After back-to-back losses riddled with miscues, questionable decision-making and missed opportunities, the Jets fired head coach Robert Saleh and tabbed defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich as the interim head coach.
“We are not where we should be given our expectations, and I believe now is the best time for us to move in a different direction,” Jets owner Woody Johnson wrote in a statement announcing Saleh’s firing.
This is the earliest coaching change since Steve Wilks took over for Matt Rhule in Carolina in Week 5 of the 2022 season. Since 2000, there have been only six coaching changes earlier than Week 5.
At 2-3 heading into a Monday Night Football matchup with the Buffalo Bills, our model now gives the Jets 8.5 projected wins with a 51.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 7.2% chance of reaching the Super Bowl – fifth in the AFC.
However, since the league moved to its current 14-team format in 2020, only 12 of 65 teams (18.5%) that started 2-3 or worse rallied to make the playoffs. The Houston Texans, Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams all pulled that off last season.
Rodgers had several chances to lead a Jets victory against the Denver Broncos in Week 4. After failing to get anything going with 2:31 remaining and getting sacked on 4th-and-10 on New York’s 45, the four-time MVP drove the Jets down to the 32-yard line before Greg Zuerlein missed on a potential winning field goal.
Rodgers was sacked five times and New York was penalized 13 times. After the loss, Rodgers and Saleh spent much of that week saying their relationship is solid.
Perhaps not solid enough.
The Jets then had another chance to pull out a win on Sunday despite trailing 17-0 early in London against the undefeated Minnesota Vikings.
But after closing to within 23-17, Rodgers threw his third interception of the contest when Vikings cornerback Stephon Gilmore caught a pass intended for Mike Williams at the 9-yard line on the final drive.
New York’s sloppy play continued with the three turnovers and eight more penalties. The Jets have four turnovers in the last two weeks after committing two in the first three games, and they have the seventh-most penalties (39) in the NFL for the fifth-most yardage (352).
It’s difficult to put a whole lot of blame on a defense that’s second in scrimmage yards allowed per game (280.4) and defensive EVE (-0.8), and tied for fifth in points allowed per game (17.0). EVE measures the average yards gained or prevented compared to the league-wide expected amount in a given situation.
But despite having two of the most talented backs in the league, the Jets have gotten away from the run game and some suspected offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett would be the more likely candidate to be ousted than Saleh.
After running the ball 45.7% of the time and rushing for 100.7 yards per game in Weeks 1-3, it’s all been basically cut in half over their last two games, running the ball just 23.4% of the time – second-lowest behind only the Seattle Seahawks (16.9%) – and averaging just 50.0 yards – the league low.
That’s caused a trickle-down effect of sorts offensively. With the threat of a run game no longer as worrisome, the Jets have faced a heavy box (more defenders up front than offensive players) just 37.5% of the time compared to 51.3% in Weeks 1-3.
With opponents playing the pass more (only Geno Smith has thrown as many times as Aaron Rodgers’ 96 attempts over the past two games), New York’s pass success rate has fallen from second in the NFL to 26th over the last two weeks and the pass catchers’ burn rates have plummeted from fourth in the league to 28th.
A burn occurs when the targeted receiver does his part to achieve a successful play (that is, a significant gain toward a first down or touchdown), regardless of the quality of the throw by the quarterback.
Overall, this is a Jets offense that features Rodgers, Breece Hall, a rising star in Braelon Allen, Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and Allen Lazard that somehow ranks 30th in offensive EVE and gaining an average of 1 yard less than the expected amount on a given play.
It won’t get any easier against a Bills team that will be hungry to rebound after consecutive losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. But Buffalo has allowed the third-highest rushing yards per play (5.7) in the NFL on designed runs over the past two weeks, meaning it could be a good time for a re-commitment to the run game under Ulbrich.
Regardless of how No. 8 might feel about it.
Research support provided by Brady Olson of Stats Perform. Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!