The last four NRL Grand Finals have been won by either the Melbourne Storm or the Penrith Panthers, with the two sides set to clash again in the 2024 edition.
It was the heartbreak of the 20-26 loss to the Melbourne Storm in the 2020 NRL Grand Final which stoked the fire for the Penrith Panthers to begin their history-making dominance over the NRL premiership. It’s four years on from that lopsided night and while there will be familiar faces on both sides, it will be two very different teams facing off for premiership glory.
The Melbourne Storm – a perpetual motion machine never far from success – have warmed into the season and have begun to showcase the capabilities of their new ‘Big Four’. It will be the biggest test that the new generation of Melbourne stars has faced as they look to win their first premiership since the retirement of Hall of Famer Cameron Smith, whose boots are now filled by livewire Harry Grant.
Three-time defending premiers, the Penrith Panthers, did what they had to and little more to progress through the regular season. They finished second and only a single win ahead of the Sharks and Roosters, before defeating both of those teams to progress to the Grand Final.
The late-season comeback of Nathan Cleary has seen the club return to elite form, as if they simply had to flick a switch to remind us of what took them to the trophy for the last three years.
Efficiency vs Effectiveness
A contrast of playing styles will go head-to-head on Sunday: the attacking flair of a buoyant Melbourne Storm against the process-driven, attritional onslaught of the Penrith Panthers.
This is highlighted by how much each team has capitalised on their good ball sets this season.
No team has had more good ball sets per game in NRL 2024 than the Penrith Panthers (14.5) which is two more per game than the Melbourne Storm (12.5).
Despite this, the Storm’s average of 29.9 points scored per game remains the highest of any team in the competition and more than five points per game higher than the Penrith Panthers (24.5)
Once inside the 20-metre danger zone, the Melbourne Storm have been more ruthless than the Panthers, scoring one try for every 8.4 play-the-balls in the opposition 20m area. That’s the second-most frequent of any team, behind only the Sydney Roosters (one every 7.3 PTBs). The Panthers sit below the competition average in this category, with one try scored for every 10.9 play-the-balls in the danger zone.
The Panthers have been more confident than most in their own danger area, however, conceding a try every 13.8 opposition play-the-balls in their own 20m zone this campaign. Among all teams, only the Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs’ breakout 2024 campaign fared better than the Panthers.
Half The Battle
The Grand Final will mark just the fifth time that the Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers have played against each other with all four of Jahrome Hughes, Cameron Munster, Nathan Cleary, and Jarome Luai available.
Getting all four halves on the park to face each other across the last few years has been an elusive feat, but when it has occurred the teams are split at two wins apiece. Indeed, 2024 has seen both teams struggle with injury to their key men but both squads have hit optimal form for the biggest weekend of the year.
The Melbourne Storm have played 13 games this year with both Munster and Hughes on the park, while the Penrith Panthers have played only 11 games with Cleary and Luai.
The Storm have been nearly unbeatable with their dynamic duo in the halves, losing only one game (18-16 vs Dragons in Round 22) with Munster and Hughes in the lineup, while the Panthers have been only a shade less successful with their first-choice halves pairing, picking up nine wins from those 11 games with Cleary and Luai.
A big caveat to the Panthers’ record, however, is that both of their losses this season with Cleary and Luai in the team have come against the Melbourne Storm, in Round 1 (8-0) and Round 24 (24-22); though, they lost Cleary to a shoulder injury late in the second of those two defeats.
The Panthers duo have combined for 108 points in games when they’ve played this NRL season thanks largely to the efforts of Cleary from the kicking tee, but the Storm pair have outshone them in almost every other category.
Munster and Hughes have scored 14 tries between them when they’ve played together this season, nearly three times as many as Cleary and Luai (5), as well as making nearly four times as many line breaks (22-6). The Storm have scored an average of 32.8 points per game with their star halves pair compared to the Panthers’ 25.8 points with their duo in the lineup.
The short kicking game is a key area where the Penrith pair have the edge. Luai has been forced to step up in the absence of Cleary this season and now that they’re back together their short kicking game has become even more potent, forcing 16 drop outs combined when they’ve played together; six more than the Storm duo despite playing two fewer games together.
The Melbourne Storm have got form on their side having won both of their meetings with the Penrith Panthers in 2024 but there is no better momentum in the game than being reigning champions. Indeed, their most recent encounter was a tight affair, with a draw a higher probability than either team winning with just 10 minutes to go in the contest, before the Storm ground out a two-point win.
Can Melbourne end Penrith’s Grand Final dominance, or will the Panthers weather the storm to make it four in a row? It is sure to be a mouthwatering affair in Sydney this weekend.
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