We might be just 10 games into Arne Slot’s Liverpool tenure, but the Dutchman has them top of the Premier League earlier than many expected. We dive into the data to see if there’s substance to the brave new Reds.
Many said it would be an ‘impossible job’.
Manchester United and Arsenal both dipped following the departures of Alex Ferguson and Arsène Wenger, so obviously, the same would happen to Liverpool when Jürgen Klopp stepped aside, right?
Well, 10 games into the Arne Slot reign at Anfield and Liverpool are in the fourth round of the EFL Cup, have maximum points in the league phase of the UEFA Champions League and sit top of the Premier League.
Slot is the first Reds boss to win as many as nine of his first 10 games in charge of the club (L1), while Liverpool have won that many games at the start of a season for only the third time, after 1961-62 and 1990-91.
It seems to be going pretty well.
It is, of course, only a start. Unai Emery won eight and lost two of his first 10 when he succeeded Wenger at Arsenal in 2018. Slot’s impressive beginning must therefore be taken with a pinch of salt for now given Emery ultimately proved to be miscast in the role at the Emirates Stadium, but the former Feyenoord boss is taking to life in England better than many might have thought he would.
One particularly impressive aspect of Liverpool in 2024-25 has been their form on the road. As well as dispatching Milan 3-1 at San Siro in their opening Champions League game, Slot’s side also have a 100% record in league away games, beating Ipswich Town, Man Utd, Wolves and Crystal Palace.
Liverpool only won nine of their 19 away games in the league last season (D7 L3), and it took until 9 December for them to win their fourth away game of the campaign, which coincidentally was also away to Palace. That was their ninth league away game of 2023-24, though that run had included tricky trips to Chelsea, Tottenham, Brighton and Manchester City.
That’s another thing to consider; while Liverpool are top of the pile, they have on paper had one of the kinder starts to the season. As we revealed prior to the 2024-25 campaign, Liverpool supposedly had the easiest first five games in the league, followed by two games against Wolves and Palace which can hardly be considered massively difficult.
As the old saying goes, though, you can only beat what’s in front of you, and apart from an off day against an impressive Nottingham Forest at Anfield where they were beaten 1-0, Slot’s Liverpool have otherwise been flawless.
One of the keys to Liverpool’s apparently seamless transition from Klopp to Slot is that the two managers’ playing styles are similar in many ways. They both prefer four at the back, and an attacking trio with inverted wide forwards. The midfield make-up is slightly different but is ultimately still about energy and laying the foundations/doing the dirty work for the rest of the team.
In an interview with TNT Sports prior to the season, Slot said: “I think you saw in the matches we’ve played in pre-season that there are a lot of similarities with the style Jürgen implemented over here. We both like to have the ball, we both like to be really intense without the ball.
“Jürgen likes to be really intense with the ball, which I like at certain moments as well, but I also don’t mind if we keep the ball, and maybe Jürgen didn’t mind as well, to keep the ball a bit longer.”
Looking at Liverpool’s numbers this season compared to their time under Klopp, we can see indications of slight differences already, albeit from a small sample size when we just look at Premier League games, so it should be remembered that the data will fluctuate during the remaining 31 games of the campaign.
Liverpool are averaging 2.0 expected goals per game; they only averaged more across a league campaign twice under Klopp (2021-22 and last season), while they are averaging just 0.74 xG against per game this season. That’s well down from 1.22 last season, and they never averaged lower than 0.76 (2019-20) under Klopp. Again, though, seven games having not even played half of their league opponents means these numbers are potentially not quite a definitive sign of overall improvement.
Unlike last season when their 20.8 shots-per-game average was the highest in the league, their high xG this season is not so much due to shot volume. Slot’s Liverpool have averaged 15.3 shots per game in the Premier League, only averaging fewer under Klopp in 2018-19 (15.1).
It was busy at both ends for Liverpool in 2023-24 as their 10.9 shots faced per game last season was their highest average under Klopp. That’s come down to 9.1 this season.
Are they looking after the ball better, now, as Slot wanted them to? Liverpool average 570.1 passes per game in the Premier League this season, lower than every full Klopp season. However, although they are attempting fewer passes, their accuracy (86.6%) is higher than any league campaign under the German. Liverpool’s average possession of 60.3% is their lowest since 2015-16 but is still the third highest in the Premier League this season behind only Man City (63.5%) and Tottenham (62.4%).
Interestingly, only City have had more sequences of 10+ passes, which suggests that while Liverpool are passing it slightly less, they’re also having those sequences broken up less often. They’re averaging 4.5 passes per sequence this season, up from 4.2 in 2023-24.
Switches have been a big part of the way Liverpool attack teams for a few years now, and they averaged 3.8 switches per game last season in the Premier League, the second most after West Ham (4.2). They haven’t moved away from that so far under Slot, with 3.9 per game this season, again second behind only West Ham (5.1). With Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold in your team, though, you’d hardly be minded to change that approach.
Liverpool have mostly felt in control of games this season, whereas the popular opinion is that their games were more chaotic in the last couple of years. ‘Control’ has almost become a buzzword around Liverpool discussion of late, and the lower number of chances they are giving up suggests they may well be controlling games better under Slot.
In recent seasons the role of Alexander-Arnold has been key to how Liverpool’s team has built up, but now it seems to be more spread out across the team. He averaged 100.0 touches per 90 minutes for Liverpool last season, but is having just 76.9 touches per 90 so far in 2024-25.
That may be to do with him sticking to more traditional right-back positions than he had done in previous seasons, when he moved into midfield frequently.
It feels like there’s more of a consistent structure and balance in defence with Alexander-Arnold sticking to the right flank more, which is no doubt a relief to right-sided centre-back Ibrahima Konaté, who we’ll come to shortly.
Liverpool conceded 41 goals in the Premier League last season, while after seven games under Slot, they have conceded just twice. The next best defensive records are Arsenal and Forest with six goals against. Again, the small sample size and strength of their opposition so far should be considered, but they are so far reducing the quality of chances they face compared to last season.
Liverpool averaged 0.11 xG against per shot in the Premier League in 2023-24, compared to 0.08 this season. It might not sound like much but only nine teams averaged a higher xG per shot against last season, while only Arsenal (0.07) have averaged a lower one so far this season.
How about off the ball? Klopp’s teams were known as ‘pressing monsters’, with former assistant Pep Lijnders declaring on several occasions that their “identity” was “intensity”.
They have been seemingly less aggressive in the press under Slot. Passes per defensive action (PPDA) is the number of opposition passes allowed outside of the pressing team’s own defensive third, divided by the number of defensive actions by the pressing team outside of their own defensive third. In Opta’s PPDA calculation, defensive actions are fouls, tackles, interceptions, challenges, and blocked passes.
Liverpool’s PPDA in the Premier League last season was 8.9, but is at 10.4 under Slot after seven games. That isn’t too surprising as Feyenoord’s was 10.1 in the Eredivisie last season. It is still the fourth-lowest rate in the Premier League, behind only Tottenham (8.0), Arsenal (8.9) and Brighton (9.4), but it’s still a notable change.
Their total of high turnovers (defined as winning the ball back within 40 metres of the opposition’s goal line) is the seventh highest in the league, averaging 8.7 per game, while they averaged 10.3 last season, the third highest.
Liverpool are winning possession in the opposition’s final third 4.3 times per league game on average, which is lower than it ever was under Klopp across a full season, with 10 teams doing so more than the Reds’ 30 times in 2024-25.
It might not be down to a change in philosophy, though. One possible explanation for all this is that Liverpool have been chasing games less than they did on average in 2023-24. In fact, they have led games for a larger percentage of time than anyone else this season (58%), and only Arsenal (2%) have been behind for less time than their 3%.
They conceded the first goal of a Premier League game on 16 occasions last season, while they have only done so once this season, and haven’t had to score a late winner yet. The latest Liverpool have scored a goal that has ended up being the clincher is 61 minutes, which was Mohamed Salah’s penalty in the 2-1 victory at Wolves. The Nottingham Forest defeat was the only game they have been chasing rather than protecting a lead in the last third of a game.
Slot has made clear how important he believes winning duels is. A duel is a 50-50 contest between two players of opposing sides in the match. For every duel won there is a corresponding duel lost depending on the outcome of the contest. Liverpool have won 51.3% of their duels in the Premier League this season, having not won more than 50% of duels in any full league campaign since 2019-20. Their current success rate is more than any season under Klopp.
That brings us nicely on to players who Slot is getting the best from, and we start with Konaté. The French centre-back began the season on the bench as youngster Jarell Quansah was handed a start at Ipswich on the opening day next to Van Dijk. Konaté came on at half-time and helped Liverpool take control at Portman Road and ultimately win against the promoted side. He’s started every game since, apart from the 5-1 League Cup win over West Ham.
Konaté struggled for form last season, to the point that Klopp was also choosing Quansah over him for periods. He has thrived since coming back into the side in 2024-25, though, winning an impressive 30 of his 36 aerial duels (83.3%) in all competitions, compared to 110 of 157 last season (70.1%), and scoring two goals, having not found the net at all in the previous two campaigns.
Another player who needed a stronger season and is very much rising to the occasion is Ryan Gravenberch. The former Ajax and Bayern Munich midfielder has become a key part of Slot’s midfield, and has earned that place, winning 59.3% of his duels in all competitions, making 61 recoveries and 19 interceptions – both more than any of his teammates – and completing 89.7% of his passes.
In terms of the attack, the headline number that signals an improvement from Luis Díaz is that he has already scored five goals in the Premier League in seven games, having only managed eight in the whole of last season. The Colombian is creating fewer chances (2.0 per 90 minutes down from 2.2 last season) and is even taking fewer shots (3.0 per 90 down from 3.2), but he’s been much more clinical with his finishing.
As is the case with any team, injuries will be a factor. Slot’s men have largely avoided them in the early weeks. Harvey Elliott was the only significant absentee barring the odd niggle for some here and there prior to Saturday. Then, Alisson went down with a hamstring problem at Selhurst Park.
The Brazilian goalkeeper is reportedly due to miss at least the next month of action. It will, though, give Caoimhín Kelleher another chance to prove himself. The Republic of Ireland international played in 26 of Liverpool’s 58 games last season, just six fewer than Alisson, and unlike his esteemed teammate, Kelleher overperformed against his expected goals on target conceded (xGOT).
xGOT measures the likelihood of an on-target shot resulting in a goal, based on the combination of the xG and the end location of the shot within the goalmouth. It gives more credit to shots that end up in the corners than shots that go straight down the middle of the goal.
In all competitions last season, Alisson conceded 32 goals from 31.6 xGOT, while Kelleher conceded 32 goals from 35.1 xGOT, meaning the latter prevented around three goals that would normally have been expected to go in.
This season, Liverpool have conceded two goals from 5.17 xG in the Premier League, meaning they are overperforming by more than three goals against. They do have the lowest xG against in the division, though, some way ahead of second-place Aston Villa (6.93) and third-place Arsenal (7.37). They have already kept five clean sheets in the Premier League, having only kept 10 in the whole of last season.
Again, the strength of their opponents must be taken into account, and many will be looking to see how Liverpool do in the next stretch of games, when the standard of the opponent increases.
In the next run of Premier League games between this international break and the next one, Liverpool face Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton and Aston Villa. All tough fixtures, albeit only the Arsenal game takes place away from Anfield. According to Opta’s fixture difficulty, which bases opponent strength on their rating in the Opta Power Rankings, Liverpool have the fourth toughest run of games in that period.
However, expand it to the next 10 league games, and Liverpool’s task is apparently the toughest. By the time they play the final game of that run we will only be two games from the halfway point of the 2024-25 Premier League season and should have a much better idea of how ambitious Slot’s Liverpool can be.
It was confirmed on Wednesday that Jürgen Klopp will become the Head of Global Soccer for Red Bull in January 2025. Ten games into the post-Klopp era at Anfield, you could argue that it’s Slot who has given Liverpool wings.
The question is, how high can they reach?
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