How did Premier League clubs perform in their opening five games based on the difficulty of their fixtures, and which clubs have the toughest and easiest matches to come?
The Premier League table doesn’t lie, but it can bend the truth at this stage of the season. Some teams have had harder starts to the season than others, so it’s time to look back and gauge how each club has performed based on the difficulty of their opening five games to 2024-25.
Before the season began, we analysed the fixture difficulty of each club’s opening five Premier League fixtures. It was deemed that Liverpool had the kindest start and Brentford the most difficult based on the average opponent rating according to the Opta Power Rankings.
Now, with those opening five games to the new season over, we can look back at how teams performed relative to the difficulty of their Premier League fixtures.
It’s not a huge surprise to see Manchester City top of the Premier League table already – they have won the last four league titles in a row and were the big pre-season favourites with the Opta supercomputer. They did have the eighth-hardest opening five fixtures based on our analysis, though, with their average opponent Opta Power Rating at 87.9, which was much higher than second-placed Liverpool (85.0).
Arsenal only trail Man City by two points, despite having the fourth-hardest start to the season (89.6) with away fixtures at three of last season’s top five – Aston Villa, Tottenham Hotspur and City. They collected an impressive seven points and went unbeaten through those matches.
Considering they were given the hardest opening five fixtures to the Premier League season (90.6), Brentford should be pleased with six points (W2 D0 L3). They even took the lead in two games that they weren’t expected to win at Man City and Tottenham.
West Ham fans haven’t been too pleased with their start to 2024-25, especially after losing their opening three home games of a league season for the first time in their history, but they should also factor in their difficult start. Their opening five games had the second-highest average opponent Opta Power Rating (90.4), with difficult matches at London Stadium versus Aston Villa, Man City and Chelsea, who all finished in the top six in 2023-24.
Maybe the same can’t be said for both Everton and Southampton, who are both currently in the relegation zone with one point from their first five matches.
In our pre-season analysis of the hardest and easiest opening five fixtures, Southampton were deemed to have the fourth-kindest start (86.0), with Everton’s only marginally more difficult (86.2). Despite this, neither side has picked up a win across these games.
But the next five matchdays might provide Everton and Sean Dyche with the boost they very much need.
Based on the average Opta Power Rating of their next five opponents in the Premier League, Everton have the easiest run of games coming up (84.8). Three home games against Crystal Palace, Newcastle and Fulham come alongside trips to two promoted sides, Ipswich Town and Southampton.
The bad news for fans of clubs that aren’t Manchester City is that Pep Guardiola’s side now have the second-easiest run of games across the next five matchdays (84.9). This could see them extend their lead at the top of the Premier League even further when we eventually reach the 10-game point of the season.
Eddie Howe’s Newcastle side have had a decent start to the season, collecting 10 points out of a possible 15 and only suffering their first defeat in the Matchday 5 loss at Fulham. It could be about to get a lot tougher for them across the next five matchweeks, however.
While they had the second-easiest run of fixtures across MD 1-5, the Magpies are deemed to have the hardest run over the next five matchdays (91.7) as they face the top two sides from last season at St James’ Park – Man City and Arsenal – as well as Chelsea (A), Brighton (H) and Everton (A).
Wolves fans – supporters of the football club, not wild animal lovers – look away now. It doesn’t get any easier for your team across the next five matches, as Gary O’Neil’s side hope to escape bottom spot.
Their next games come against Liverpool (H), Brentford (A), Man City (H), Brighton (A) and Crystal Palace (H), and they have the second-highest average opponent Opta Power Rating (90.9) behind Newcastle.
It’s still early days, but at some point a blip develops into something more concerning. Wolves’ situation will begin to look rather more troubling if their form doesn’t improve soon.
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