Jhon Durán once again came off the bench to win all three points for Aston Villa this weekend. We examine his incredible record as a substitute.
Ollie Watkins has now gone eight Premier League appearances without a goal for Aston Villa.
That’s tied his longest barren run since an eight-game stretch between August and October 2022 just prior to Unai Emery’s arrival. He’s had 16 shots over this time frame without finding the back of the net.
And yet Villa are… fine?
You’d think that when your main striker goes on the joint-worst run in his career, results would drop off. Granted, Villa did lose two of their last four league games and the end of last season, but one of those (5-0 vs Crystal Palace) came on the last day after they’d already qualified for the Champions League and had gone all out to win the Europa Conference League.
This campaign, Emery’s side have won two of their opening three games – with that lone defeat coming against title-contenders Arsenal – and sit comfortably in seventh.
And that’s thanks to the form of Jhon Durán. The Colombian has come off the bench in all three games this season – each time for Watkins – and scored the winner in two of them. Only Erling Haaland (two) has scored as many match-winning goals as Durán so far, whose strikes have already won Villa four points. Again, that’s a figure only Haaland (five) currently betters.
Durán’s goals this season have not only been valuable, but they’ve also been a pair of excellent finishes. His latest effort against Leicester this past weekend was a twisting, neck-contorting header from outside the six-yard box. The 20-year-old did very well to get enough power and direction to beat Mads Hermansen. His winner against West Ham on the opening weekend was a first-time finish, slotted clinically under Alphonse Areola.
Those two Premier League goals have come from just 85 minutes of action; substitute minutes is something Durán’s had to get used to. Across his Aston Villa league career, he’s featured in 38 games but has started just three of them. Since his debut for the club in February of 2023, he’s more made substitute appearances (35) than any other player in the division and has subbed on more than twice as often as anyone else at Villa (Leon Bailey is next on 17).
For someone who has had to rely so much on substitute minutes, his goal return rate is very impressive. Among players to have scored seven or more Premier League goals, only Matt Derbyshire (90% – 9/10) has seen a higher share come as a substitute than Durán (86% – 6/7).
Meanwhile, among players with 5+ goals in the competition, only Erling Haaland (one every 80 minutes) has a better minutes-per-goal rate than Durán (96).
It’s clearly harder to maintain such an efficient scoring rate across a career, but just look at the names he’s above in the table below. Sergio Agúero! Thierry Henry! … Deniz Undav!
As you’d expect for a player who is so effective from such little action, Durán is extremely efficient when he’s on the pitch.
Across his Premier League career so far, he’s averaged a goal every 47.9 touches. That’s a historically efficient ratio, and only two Premier League players in recorded history (since 2006-07) have needed fewer touches to score. You Know Who is number one, but Adam Le Fondre sneaks into second ahead of Durán. Newcastle’s Alexander Isak is fourth.
Since making his debut for Villa, Duran has averaged 0.44 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. For comparison, Watkins – who has shouldered a huge amount of Villa’s attacking burden over that time – is up at 0.49, but there are plenty of players that Durán is outpacing; chief among those is Harry Kane (0.43).
Villa had to fight to keep him at the club amid interest this summer but those efforts look to have paid off.
We’re not claiming Durán would be able to maintain his current numbers should he suddenly be thrust into a starting role, but his proficiency off the bench means that Aston Villa fans should not be too concerned about a drop in form of Watkins. Durán can provide firepower from the bench in the meantime and Watkins will come good soon. He’s too talented not to.
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