With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across Matchday 1.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all UEFA Champions League matches and season outcomes.
Real Madrid have won the most European Cup/Champions League titles (15), with nine of those coming in the UCL era since 1992. They’ll be looking to add yet another this season following their 2023-24 success in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium.
Manchester City are likely to be their biggest rivals in the quest for European glory in 2024-25, with Pep Guardiola’s side having won their first title in 2023 versus Internazionale. Fellow Premier League side Arsenal are also highly fancied, but they’re yet to win a UCL title despite this being their 21st season in the competition.
Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Champions League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 1 Predictions
Tuesday 17 September
The 2024-25 UEFA Champions League kicks off with two matches in the early Tuesday evening timeslot: Juventus vs PSV and Young Boys vs Aston Villa.
Eredivisie side PSV have never won a UCL game away in Italy (D2 L4) and the Opta supercomputer isn’t expecting them to end that run here, either. Juventus won 49.3% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations and are made favourites to win this clash in Turin.
Aston Villa have a similar chance of winning on Tuesday, in what is their first-ever Champions League match. They won 48.6% of the supercomputer sims before kick-off; the last English club to make their debut in the competition were Leicester City in 2016, and they won 3-0 on their bow versus Club Brugge.
In fact, Aston Villa are one of only two away teams backed for success by the supercomputer on Tuesday night’s UCL action, with the other being fellow Premier League club Liverpool.
Arne Slot will take charge of the Reds for the first time in European competition, as they face a tricky away match at Milan. The Opta supercomputer saw them win 48.2% of pre-match simulations, and with good reason. Liverpool are the only team to play at the Giuseppe Meazza stadium more than once as a visiting side in the competition while maintaining a 100% record.
Home wins are predicted by the supercomputer for Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Sporting CP versus Stuttgart, Dinamo Zagreb and Lille, respectively.
Real Madrid are one of the overall favourites for the Champions League this season, and they are expected to get off to a good start in Spain on Tuesday. En route to glory last season, they were only behind for 7% of their total match time in the UCL, the lowest percentage of any team. Across the 2023-24 edition, the longest they were behind for in a single match was just 27 minutes (versus Bayern Munich in the semi-final first leg).
Wednesday 18 September
Bologna and Sparta Prague kick off the Wednesday night Champions League action in the early games, with both home teams given the tag as match favourites by the supercomputer.
Serie A club Bologna are another of the UCL debutants this season, and their meeting with Shakhtar Donetsk will be slightly bigger than their last European game – the 2002 UEFA Intertoto Cup final, in which they were beaten 3-5 on aggregate by Fulham. They won 50.2% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations on Wednesday’s game.
Sparta Prague are without a win in any of their last 14 UEFA Champions League games (D4 L10), since a 1-0 victory over Lazio in December 2003, but the supercomputer thinks that run could end on Wednesday. It saw them victorious versus Red Bull Salzburg in 40.6% of pre-match sims; a better chance than a draw (25.1%) or an away win (34.3%).
Celtic have never won their opening game of a UEFA Champions League campaign, drawing two and losing 10. That run could finally come to an end on Wednesday night, with the Opta supercomputer predicting a home win (65.7%) over Slovan Bratislava, while Paris Saint-Germain are also tipped for home success in their meeting with yet another UCL debutant, Girona (57.3%).
Manchester City have been made the pre-tournament favourites to win the 2024-25 Champions League by the Opta supercomputer, but they face a stiff test at home to Serie A champions Inter on Wednesday at the Etihad Stadium.
City won a healthy 59.8% of the pre-match supercomputer simulations and are unbeaten in their last 23 games in the competition (W16 D7), two away from equalling the all-time record across both the European Cup and UCL eras. Striker Erling Haaland is in scary form, and with 41 goals in 39 UCL appearances to date, Inter may find it hard to stop him adding to that tally.
Borussia Dortmund are the only away side labelled as favourites by the Opta supercomputer in Wednesday’s Champions League matches, with their pre-game win rate at 45.4%. Their hosts, Club Brugge, have only won three of their last 20 home matches in the Champions League (D6 L11), and BVB will hope to get off to a strong start after ending as losing finalists in 2023-24.
Thursday 19 September
Thursday night looks to be one that suits the away sides, with Barcelona, Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen and Benfica all the favourites with the Opta supercomputer to pick up victories on the road.
Thursday’s early games see Crvena zvezda host Portuguese giants Benfica, while reigning Bundesliga champions Bayer Leverkusen visit neighbouring country Netherlands to play Feyenoord.
The supercomputer is hardly putting its robotic neck on the line with its prediction that Benfica will win away in Serbia (48.2%); after all, only Malmo (83%) have a worse loss rate in the competition than Crvena zvezda (78% – 14/18) among teams to partake in three or more editions.
Feyenoord have lost 12 of their last 15 matches in the UEFA Champions League (W3), including each of their last eight away from home. Furthermore, life after Slot hasn’t got off to the best start, with one league win (over PEC Zwolle) and three draws with unfancied Willem II, Sparta Rotterdam and Groningen across their four league games under Brian Priske. Bayer Leverkusen’s 50.2% win rate in the pre-match supercomputer simulations is the highest of every away team on MD 1.
Atalanta won the 2023-24 Europa League versus Leverkusen and will start life in the 2024-25 Champions League with a tricky match versus Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal. Could this finally be the year that the Gunners win the competition? Well, the supercomputer is giving them the edge on MD 1 with a 39.2% win probability.
Barcelona are taking part in the UEFA Champions League for a 21st consecutive season; only Real Madrid are currently on a longer run (28). Hansi Flick’s side are tipped to get off to a good start away in Monaco, with the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match sims seeing them win 47.1% of the time.
Atlético Madrid were the only side with a 100% win rate at home in last season’s UEFA Champions League, winning all five games at the Metropolitano. The supercomputer expects another victory on Thursday, with Diego Simeone’s side winning 43.7% of pre-match sims versus German club RB Leipzig.
We end the Matchday 1 summary with a fixture that most neutrals probably won’t be rushing to watch but one that offers a good opportunity to get points on the board for both Brest and Sturm Graz.
Brest will be the 12th different French side to play in the UEFA Champions League, and the supercomputer is expecting a successful debut (47.1% win probability). Sturm Graz have lost their opening match in each of their three previous UEFA Champions League campaigns without netting a single goal, so just scoring might be an achievement here.
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