Arsenal are backed to beat Paris Saint-Germain by the Opta supercomputer, but can they live up to those expectations in this Champions League encounter? Look ahead with our Arsenal vs PSG prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs PSG Stats: The Key Insights
- Arsenal won 46.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations for this match.
- Paris Saint-Germain haven’t scored with any of their last 71 shots in the Champions League, beating Girona last time out thanks to a late own goal.
- PSG have played more UEFA competition games against Arsenal (four) without winning than they have any other team.
Arsenal are aiming to kick-start their UEFA Champions League campaign on Tuesday when they host Paris Saint-Germain in a blockbuster clash after only managing a draw on Matchday 1.
Mikel Arteta’s side were disappointing in their 0-0 draw with Atalanta last time out in the competition, generating an underwhelming 0.78 expected goals from just six shots in Bergamo. They also had to rely on the heroics of goalkeeper David Raya to earn just a point.
Raya saved a Mateo Retegui penalty and then produced a second brilliant stop to keep the rebound out, becoming only the fourth Arsenal goalkeeper to deny a spot-kick in the competition.
The Gunners’ nine touches in the opposition’s box in that game was their fewest in a Champions League encounter since March 2014 (also nine, vs Bayern Munich). Linked to that, their six attempts was also their fewest in a Champions League away game for 10 years when they only managed five at Borussia Dortmund in September 2014.
However, they are back at home this week for one of their toughest assignments of the 2024-25 league phase.
PSG were one of the two Pot 1 sides Arsenal were drawn to face, the other being Inter, and they’ll promise to make life difficult for the Gunners at the Emirates Stadium.
While Luis Enrique’s side could only win 1-0 against tournament debutants Girona on Matchday 1, it was an entirely one-sided affair. PSG enjoyed 64% possession and managed 26 shots to Girona’s three; the only game on MD1 with a greater shot disparity between the two teams was Bayern Munich’s 9-2 demolition of Dinamo Zagreb (29-4).
Nevertheless, PSG only just secured a victory. A 90th-minute own goal courtesy of Girona goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga proved decisive, the Argentinian unable to stop Nuno Mendes’ deflected low cross squirming through him and into the net.
That was the latest game-winning own goal in Champions League history and meant PSG have attempted 71 shots in the competition since one of their players last scored, with Kylian Mbappé vs Barcelona in April being the last player to net for the Parisians in the UCL.
PSG will have been happy just to get off to a winning start, though, given the Opta supercomputer considered them to have the toughest fixture schedule of all teams in the league phase of the Champions League this term when the draw was made; their opponents have an average rating of 92.4 in the Opta Power Rankings and they still have to face Barcelona, Atlético Madrid and Manchester City after tussling with Arsenal.
But going back to the subject of barren spells in front of goal, if Arsenal fail to score on Tuesday, it’ll be the first time they’ve ever gone three European Cup/Champions League games without netting.
Should Arsenal sort themselves out on that front, it’s likely Bukayo Saka will have had something to do with it. He’s been directly involved in seven goals in five Champions League home games (four goals, three assists), which is the most by any male Gunners player through their first five home matches in the competition.
Although he wasn’t officially credited with the assist, it was Saka’s corner that led directly to Leandro Trossard’s second of the game (and Arsenal’s third) in their 4-2 victory against Leicester City. Arsenal have long been especially dangerous from set-pieces, and much of that threat needs to be credited to Saka’s (and Declan Rice’s) consistent ability to deliver exceptional crosses.
That win over Leicester would have been very welcome for Mikel Arteta, who’s side arguably fell short of expectations against Atalanta, and saw a precious win away against Manchester City evaporate in the last minute.
PSG remain unbeaten in Ligue 1 through six matches, winning five of those. Bradley Barcola continued his scoring streak for the Parisians at the weekend, his brace helping the Ligue 1 leaders to a 3-1 victory over Rennes. Barcola has six goals in six games so far, two more than he managed for the whole of last season and the 22-year-old will be a threat to Arsenal on Tuesday.
Arsenal vs PSG Head-to-Head
Arsenal are unbeaten in their previous four meetings with PSG in European competition (W1 D3). In fact, the French side have played more games against the Gunners without winning (4) than against any other opponent in Europe.
Furthermore, PSG have lost each of their last three away games against English sides in the UEFA Champions League, losing twice to Manchester City (both in 2021) and once to Newcastle last season. Their 4-1 defeat at St. James’ Park in 2023-24 was their heaviest away defeat to an English opponent in European competition.
Arsenal’s previous home game against a French side in the Champions League was a 6-0 victory over Lens in last season’s group stage. The Gunners were 4-0 up after 27 minutes in that game, while it remains the biggest ever win by an English team over a French opponent in Europe.
Arteta will be the sixth different Spanish manager that Luis Enrique has faced in the UEFA Champions League. The PSG boss has won five of his last six such matches (L1), and beaten each of the previous five Spaniards he’s faced in the competition at least once (Pep Guardiola, Unai Emery, Xavi, Imanol Alguacil and Míchel).
Arsenal vs PSG Prediction
The Opta supercomputer considers Arsenal to be fairly comfortable favourites for this match, winning 46.1% of its 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Nevertheless, that still leaves PSG with at least a point in over half of the sims, with their win probability rated at 27.3%, with 26.6% ending as a draw.
In our latest season projections for the competition, Arsenal are rated as fourth favourites, going on to lift the trophy in 6.7% of the simulations. PSG win their maiden Champions League title in 4.4%, making them ninth favourites.
Arsenal vs PSG Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Arsenal vs PSG Squads
Arsenal: David Raya, Neto, Tommy Setford, William Saliba, Kieran Tierney, Ben White, Gabriel, Jurriën Timber, Jakub Kiwior, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Riccardo Calafiori, Thomas Partey, Martin Ødegaard, Leandro Trossard, Jorginho, Mikel Merino, Kai Havertz, Raheem Sterling, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
PSG: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matvey Safonov, Arnau Tenas, Achraf Hakimi, Presnel Kimpembe, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Nuno Mendes, Lucas Beraldo, Milan Skriniar, Yoram Zague, Willian Pacho, Fabián Ruiz, Désiré Doué, Vitinha, Lee Kang-in, Senny Mayulu, Warren Zaïre-Emery, João Neves, Gonçalo Ramos, Ousmane Dembélé, Marcos Asensio, Randal Kolo Muani, Bradley Barcola, Ibrahim Mbaye.
Head coach: Luis Enrique
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