Can anyone stop Erling Haaland from winning the Premier League Golden Boot award for a third season running? We look at the other contenders, plus some outside shots for the top scorer accolade in 2024-25.
Erling Haaland
Only two players have won the Premier League Golden Boot award in three successive seasons: Alan Shearer between 1994-94 and 1996-97 and Thierry Henry in 2003-04, 2004-05 and 2005-06. Erling Haaland is looking to become the third after topping the scoring charts in his two seasons at Manchester City so far.
His attacking statistics are quite ridiculous. His 63 goals in 66 games are 26 more than anybody else across his two seasons as a Premier League player, while he’s attempted the most shots (244) and has the highest expected goals total in the competition (57.9 xG). He’s scored six hat-tricks in those two seasons, as well.
He’s already broken the competition record as the fastest player to 50 goals by 17 games (48 apps) and needs to score 37 more in his next 57 appearances to beat Alan Shearer’s current record of 100 goals in his first 124 Premier League games.
There have only been 16 instances of a player scoring at least 27 goals in a 38-game Premier League season, and Haaland is responsible for two of them. Last season saw him top the Premier League scoring charts by five goals (27) despite missing seven games, while his first season in 2022-23 saw him break the Premier League record for most goals in a season (36).
Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah was an ever-reliable source of goals for Jürgen Klopp in the Premier League, scoring 155 in 250 games under the German boss. Now he’ll play for Liverpool under someone other than Klopp for the first time, with Arne Slot coming in as boss at Anfield.
Salah is a three-time Premier League Golden Boot winner, after securing the award in 2017-18, 2018-19 and 2021-22. Only Thierry Henry has won the award more often in the competition (4), and Salah – now 32 years old – is running out of time to equal that tally.
Last season he scored 18 times, with that dropping to 13 goals when excluding penalties – both his lowest figures in a Premier League season at Liverpool. However, it was also the season that he played the fewest minutes (2,535), so his output was decent enough – a minutes-per-goal rate of 141 was better than in 2022-23 and two other seasons in 2018-19 and 2019-20.
The Egyptian is currently ranked 10th in the all-time Premier League top scorer charts with 157 goals. If he were to manage 20 this season, it would take him up to joint-sixth with Frank Lampard on 177. It feels like an achievable target for Salah.
Darwin Núñez
Sometimes Darwin Núñez can look like one of the most dangerous strikers about, but on other occasions you’d be right to question the £64million fee that Liverpool forked out for the Uruguayan.
Liverpool signed him after he’d won the top scorer award in the Portuguese Primeira Liga with Benfica (26 goals), but he’s managed just 20 across his two Premier League seasons, at an average of a goal every 187 minutes.
Núñez is a high-volume shooter. Since he became a Premier League player in the summer of 2022, he’s averaged more shots per 90 than any other player to have played at least 1,500 minutes in the competition (4.6).
Accuracy is an issue, however. Of the 21 players to have scored at least 20 goals over that period, he has the worst shot conversion rate (10.4%) and has missed more of his ‘big chances’ than any of those players (78%). It’s quite often fine margins, though – 14 of his shots have hit the woodwork across those two seasons, which is more than any other player in the competition.
If small adjustments are made by new manager Slot to suit Núñez’s game and the striker has a little more fortune on his side, maybe 2024-25 could be different.
Ollie Watkins
Aston Villa enjoyed an excellent Premier League season in 2023-24 and eventually finished fourth to seal UEFA Champions League qualification for the first time. Central to their success was forward Ollie Watkins, who scored 19 times in the competition.
Those 19 goals equalled the record by a Villa player in the Premier League era – level with Christian Benteke in 2012-13 – while he was one away from becoming their first 20-goal player in a single top-flight league season since Peter Withe in 1980-81, when they won the title. Those goals won Withe the Golden Boot on that occasion, making him the last Aston Villa player to pick up the award in the English top division.
Watkins made the most of his opportunities last season, as his 0.47 non-penalty expected goals average per 90 was lower than nine other players to play at least 1,000 minutes in the Premier League, while his average of 6.5 touches in the opposition box per 90 was lower than 24 of those players.
Penalties could be the key to pushing Watkins’ goal tally up, though – now Douglas Luiz has moved on, he could be handed the responsibility to take them for Unai Emery’s side.
Alexander Isak
Not since Shearer in 1996-97 has a Newcastle player topped the Premier League goalscorers’ chart, with the competition’s all-time leading scorer netting 25 that campaign on the way to helping the Magpies to second place in his first season at the club.
Alexander Isak will have to have a massive season to replicate that feat, but his qualities mean that a potential Premier League Golden Boot is far from out of the question.
The Swedish forward scored 21 times in the Premier League last season, and since Isak’s debut back on 31 August 2022, only Haaland (57), Salah (35) and Watkins (33) have scored more times in the Premier League than he has (31). His minutes-per-goal rate of 122 is superior to both Salah (156) and Watkins (184) in that period, too.
While obviously a threat in open play, Isak is Newcastle’s penalty taker so he’s able to pick up goals in that manner, as well. Since his competition debut, only four players have taken and scored more penalties in the Premier League than he has (8 taken, 7 scored).
Cole Palmer
Another of the Premier League’s most prolific penalty-takers, Cole Palmer enjoyed a superb first season at Chelsea in 2023-24 and ended the campaign second in the Premier League’s scoring charts with 22 goals – five behind Haaland (27).
Nine of those goals came from the penalty spot – more than any other player. Should he take another penalty in the competition and score it, he would become just the second player in Premier League history to take as many as 10 penalties and have a 100% success rate, after former Man City star Yaya Touré, who converted all 11 of his in the competition.
The task that Palmer now has is to back up last season with another 20-goal campaign. That’s easier said than done for a Chelsea player, though, with Jimmy-Floyd Hasselbaink the only player to do so in a Chelsea shirt in the league since 1962, when he scored 23 goals in both 2000-01 and 2001-02.
Dominic Solanke
Dominic Solanke broke Spurs’ transfer record last week when he signed for a fee of £65 million, inclusive of add-ons. The pressure will be now on the 26-year-old to perform in front of goal, with Tottenham still needing an out-and-out goalscorer after the departure of Harry Kane a year ago.
Solanke was in great form last season, finishing the season fourth in the Premier League’s goalscoring charts, with 19 goals. It was the highest-scoring season by a Bournemouth player in the Premier League, overtaking Joshua King, who hit 16 in 2016-17.
Even more impressive is the fact that he scored five more goals than anyone else playing for a team in the bottom half of the table, ahead of Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood, on 14. In doing so, Solanke became only the 10th player in Premier League history to score as many as 19 goals for a bottom-half team.
Playing for a more dominant side like Spurs, he could find goals easier to come by.
Other Potentials
Arsenal’s lack of a single out-and-out goalscorer was a topic of discussion last season after they narrowly missed out on the Premier League title to Manchester City for the second season running. Goals certainly weren’t an issue for them, though, as only Man City (96) scored more than they did (91), but only three players hit double-figures: Bukayo Saka (16), Kai Havertz (13) and Leandro Trossard (12).
Could one of those step up and manage a 20-goal campaign or higher in 2024-25? The last player to reach 20 Premier League goals in a season for the Gunners was Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who scored 22 in both 2018-19 and 2019-20 – the first of those seasons was enough to share the Golden Boot.
Strong shouts for top scorer awards at Liverpool, Spurs and Manchester United could be Diogo Jota, Son Heung-min and Bruno Fernandes.
Jota spent lots of time out injured last season, but when he was fit, he was a reliable source of goals for Liverpool. Of players to play at least 1,000 minutes of Premier League football last season, his rate of 115 minutes per goal was bettered by only Isak (108) and Haaland (95).
Fernandes has hit double figures for goals in three of his four full Premier League seasons, including 18 in 2020-21. Availability is a key attribute for the Portuguese, too – he’s started 142 of Man Utd’s 152 Premier League games across the last four seasons, plus he’s their regular penalty taker.
Son has won the Premier League Golden Boot before, scoring 23 goals in 2021-22 on the way to sharing it with Salah. He’s scored at least 10 goals in his last eight Premier League seasons at Spurs, including 17 last term, when he finished as Spurs’ top scorer in the league, as well as attempting the most shots (85) and having the highest xG (12.0).
Only three players to play 1,000+ minutes in the Premier League last season averaged a non-penalty xG/90 higher than Nicolas Jackson (0.60), but his problem was converting those chances. Now, that’s not an ideal problem for a potential Golden Boot winner, but he’s only just turned 23 and is still improving. Getting into strong positions to score is a good start, so maybe 2024-25 could be the season he puts the ball in the back of the net with more regularity.
If not Jackson, then Chelsea could find goals via Christopher Nkunku. The French forward frustratingly sat on the sidelines with injuries in his first season in the Premier League but did win the top scorer award in the Bundesliga in 2022-23 with 16 goals – level with a certain Niclas Füllkrug.
Füllkrug is also now a Premier League player after he joined West Ham in early August from 2023-24 Champions League finalists Borussia Dortmund. Across the last two Bundesliga seasons, he scored 28 goals, a tally only beaten by two other players in the competition. Can he become the focal point in West Ham’s attack and perhaps the first West Ham player to reach 20 goals in a top-flight league season since Tony Cottee in 1986-87 (22)?
Only one Golden Boot winner in Premier League history has played for a club to finish outside the top eight that season, and that was Dion Dublin, who shared the award in 1997-98 when at 11th-place Coventry City. In fact, just one of the winners since 2000-01 has played for a side outside the top six – Harry Kane for Spurs in 2020-21. Both Brighton and Fulham may have their work cut out to achieve a top-six finish in 2024-25, but they each have a Brazilian forward who could be outside shouts for the Golden Boot this season.
Last season saw João Pedro become the first player to reach 20 goals in a single season for Brighton in all competitions since Glenn Murray in 2016-17 (23). Just nine of those came in the Premier League, but he missed a fair chunk of the second half of the season through injury and he also takes penalties for his club. He scored 10 from the spot in all competitions last season.
Rodrigo Muniz was unstoppable for Fulham in February and March, scoring more Premier League goals than any other player in those two months (eight in six games). Can he rediscover that form and sustain it for a longer period for Marco Silva’s side?
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