With the 2024-25 Premier League season starting this weekend, we look at some of the key talking points around Newcastle ahead of their campaign opener.
Newcastle United contended with a difficult 2023-24 campaign. A rollercoaster ride, there were incredible highs and frustrating lows, but in the end they came out the other side with credit and potentially better off for their troubles.
Now, battle-hardened and aiming to upset the established order as they did in 2022-23, Newcastle look a force to be reckoned with. Ahead of their opening game of 2024-25 against Southampton, we look at some of the key questions facing the Magpies.
How Much of a Difference Will Nick Pope Make?
It’s no secret that Newcastle were pretty unfortunate with injuries and absences last season. Of course, they weren’t the only team to struggle in that regard, but for Eddie Howe’s men it certainly felt like one of the key overarching themes.
It’s impossible to know whether they’ll fare better in that regard in 2024-25, but that will be the hope.
Nick Pope’s lengthy spell out of the side was a particularly bitter blow. While he may not fit many people’s idea of the perfect modern goalkeeper, with his passing hardly flawless, the England international is a talented shot-stopper.
Pope managed only 15 Premier League appearances last term due to a shoulder injury, returning on the final day of the season after five and a half months out.
His 72.4% save success rate was the third best in the division among goalkeepers to make at least 10 appearances, while he prevented 1.5 goals (excluding own goals) according to Opta’s expected goals on target (xGOT) model, ranking 11th in that category.
Across his 15 appearances, Pope only let in 16 goals at a rate of 1.07 per game; David Raya (0.75) and Ederson (0.82) were the only two goalkeepers to better that rate, while Martin Dúbravka – Newcastle’s first back-up option last season – conceded at a rate of 1.91 per 90.
Of course, there are other factors at play here such as the other personnel on the pitch at the time and the opposition, but the general consensus is that Pope is simply a considerably better – and more assuring – goalkeeper than Dúbravka.
The arrival of Odysseas Vlachodimos from Nottingham Forest will likely shunt Dúbravka further down the pecking order, though Pope will still expect to retain his spot in the starting XI.
He’s probably the best shot-stopper they’ve had since Shay Given, and it shouldn’t be overlooked how much of a boost his return could be in terms of his ability, but also for ensuring the defence is more at ease.
Could Sandro Tonali Be ‘Like a New Signing’?
Eight matches in, Sandro Tonali’s Premier League career came to an abrupt halt. In October 2023, he was hit with a 10-month ban for breaking Italian betting regulations while at AC Milan, meaning he missed the rest of the Premier League campaign and Euro 2024.
Technically, his ban hasn’t lapsed yet, but he is in line to return for Newcastle’s game against Tottenham on 1 September providing he’s fit.
The ban robbed Newcastle of a £60 million talent they’d only recently acquired, and it instantly left them with a gaping hole in their squad. Perhaps impressive youngster Lewis Miley might not have ended up getting as much playing time as he did had Tonali not been suspended, so that’s one potential silver lining. But generally speaking, it was a setback.
Nevertheless, Tonali was still in the adaptation phase, so we obviously don’t know exactly how good he would’ve ended up being last term. He starts again this season having missed the best part of a year’s worth of action; granted, it’s not like he’s had an injury to rehabilitate from but finding that rhythm quickly won’t be easy.
Howe will be relishing the chance to get him back into the side, though. On the face of it, Tonali transforms Newcastle’s midfield options because he’s such a well-rounded player.
A forceful presence off the ball and a technical, creative talent on it, Tonali could add another dimension to Newcastle’s play. However, some raised concerns last season about his compatibility with Bruno Guimarães while others were surprised Howe continued to play the Brazilian as the deepest midfielder and Tonali as an eight, rather than the other way around.
Either way, the prospect of Howe finding the right balance in a midfield that includes those two will have most fans licking their lips. It may take a little fine-tuning, but the hints were there during the early weeks of last season, with his debut in the 5-1 hammering of Aston Villa immediately springing to mind.
“As debuts go, this was as good as it gets – what a magnificent start to his Newcastle career,” club legend Alan Shearer said on Match of the Day at the time. “It was the perfect midfield performance; a goal, an assist, tackles, great range of passing, late runs into the box, getting stuck in, did his bit defensively. He was involved in almost everything.”
Fans will welcome him back with open arms.
Can Anthony Gordon Find Another Level?
After a somewhat underwhelming start to life at Newcastle, Anthony Gordon enjoyed a fine 2023-24. In fact, he was ultimately named their Player of the Season for his tireless, energetic performances on the flank.
So, us asking if he can find another level isn’t trying to do him a disservice, but rather wondering if he can get even better.
Gordon’s bread and butter is his work rate. Only six forwards/attacking midfielders tallied more pressures than him (1,055) over the course of last season, while just four wingers bettered his 773 off-ball runs and he ranked as high as 16th among all forwards for possession regains in the final third per 90 (0.9).
That wasn’t all he was good for, though. With 0.3 xG and 2.5 shots per 90, Gordon ranked in the 85th percentile and 78th percentile among wingers over a single season in the top five leagues over the past 10 years (minimum 1,350 minutes), while his 5.3 touches in the opposition’s box every 90 minutes put him in the 83rd percentile.
In short, he was highly active in the attacking third and that leads nicely on to the fact he also won six penalties, more than anyone else in the big five leagues last season and double that of any other Premier League player.
The headline stat for Gordon last season, however, was that he was one of only five Premier League players to reach double figures for both non-penalty goals and assists (10 np-goals, 10 assists), while the graphic below highlights how involved he was in their attacks.
With Newcastle struggling on the injuries front, Gordon was practically an ever-present and proved reliable in terms of his availability, work ethic and output in attack. That being said, his average of 1.2 open-play chances created per 90 didn’t see him rank highly and his 10 assists was considerably higher than his 5.6 expected assists, suggesting he was helped by the finishing of his colleagues.
Nevertheless, he enjoyed an excellent season and having areas to improve on can only be a good thing for a player who proved himself to have an exceptional mindset and attitude in 2023-24.
Have Newcastle Done Enough in the Transfer Market?
Newcastle’s transfer business this summer will have gone under the radar of many neutrals, with no standout Tonali-like ‘marquee’ signing coming in.
Lewis Hall’s loan from Chelsea was made permanent, Vlachodimos joined from Forest and William Osula was picked up from relegated Sheffield United – those are the three players they’ve actually spent a fee on. Their other arrivals, Lloyd Kelly and John Ruddy, were free transfers.
Obviously, a so-called ‘marquee’ signing isn’t a must, and the lack of a big-name signing doesn’t mean those who have joined don’t have their merits. After all, Hall showed significant potential at St James’ Park last season, Kelly offers added depth and versatility at the back, Vlachodimos struggled at Forest but was highly rated before at Benfica, and Osula is one for the future at 21 years old.
But is it enough?
For the most part, fans aren’t exactly panicking. While it’s probably fair to suggest they could upgrade their options on the right flank, where Miguel Almirón and Jacob Murphy are the most senior players, they’re hardly in a nightmare scenario. Don’t forget, Newcastle managed to qualify for last season’s Champions League with those two as their right-sided wingers, and each of them offers considerable work rate that shouldn’t be taken for granted.
Furthermore, and arguably most important of all, they’ve managed to keep hold of their key players in Gordon, Alexander Isak and Bruno Guimarães. Granted, ‘standing still’ in that regard might not be a show of ambition to some, but all three have proven themselves to be high-quality options at this level and in this team – were they to be sold, could they guarantee replacements of the same calibre? Absolutely not.
As already mentioned, Newcastle endured a terrible injury crisis last season that was exacerbated by a swollen fixture list that included Champions League games. And not just any Champions League games; we’re talking one of the toughest groups they could’ve possibly been drawn into alongside Paris Saint-Germain, Milan and Borussia Dortmund.
At the end of the season, they still managed a commendable seventh-place finish. In 2024-25, Newcastle don’t have the “distraction” of European football and they surely won’t endure another injury crisis like in 2023-24. Additionally, although the club’s pursuit of Crystal Palace centre-back Marc Guéhi is yet to bear fruit, he would be an excellent signing who improves the standard and depth at the heart of the defence if they can get him in.
Write Newcastle off at your peril.
Where Can Newcastle Make Gains?
A focus for Newcastle this season will almost certainly centre on being tighter defensively. In 2022-23, their 33 goals conceded was equal best in the Premier League with champions Manchester City, but last term that nearly doubled to 62.
That was a byproduct of Newcastle’s shots faced increasing drastically from 387 to 534 over the full campaign, and the average quality of the non-penalty shots they conceded went up from 0.09 np xG to 0.11 np xG. That might not sound like a lot on the face of it, but when extrapolated over several hundred shots in a full season, it sees your np xG against go from 36.1 to 58.
It goes without saying that Newcastle’s injury problems last season contributed to this, but that doesn’t mean it can be ignored. Thankfully for them, they were so effective at the other end of the pitch, scoring 75 times (excluding penalties and own-goals) from 70 np-xG and 85 overall, behind only the top three.
But imagine if they were able to keep up that level of attacking productivity while re-establishing the rock-solid defence from 2022-23 – they’d practically be shoo-ins for the top four.
Granted, it’s not quite as simple as just saying it. Finding such a balance obviously isn’t easy otherwise everyone would manage it. But at least Newcastle have seen both sides of the coin.
The overriding feeling, however, is that Newcastle are a team with real potential. At their best, we know they’re capable of hitting serious heights because they are blessed with some brilliant players, a very good manager and a spirited fanbase. It’s also worth noting that they have one of the easier starts to the campaign.
The Opta supercomputer considers them the fifth-likeliest to finish in the top four this season (26.5%) – they’re not to be underestimated.
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