We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Manchester United prediction and preview. Can Erik ten Hag’s side improve on the south coast?
Brighton vs Manchester United Stats: Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer has Brighton as the narrow favourites against Manchester United, with them winning 39.4% of pre-match simulations.
- Manchester United have lost 43% of their Premier League meetings with Brighton (6/14), their highest loss rate against a single opponent in the competition’s history.
- Bruno Fernandes has either scored (4) or assisted (2) six of Man Utd’s last 13 Premier League goals against Brighton.
Erik ten Hag still needs improvements as Manchester United head to Brighton for Saturday’s early Premier League kick-off, with both sides hoping to make it back-to-back victories.
United were saved by new hero Joshua Zirkzee as the forward announced his arrival from Bologna with an 87th-minute winner against Fulham in the opening game. That late intervention snatched a 1-0 victory at Old Trafford last Friday.
Zirkzee’s blistering introduction, assisted by substitute Alejandro Garnacho, made him the second player to come off the bench and score the winning goal on his Premier League debut for Man Utd, after Federico Macheda in April 2009.
The last player to score on his first two league appearances for the Red Devils was Antony in October 2022, and Zirkzee will hope to achieve that feat here, with his performance warranting selection from the start.
The Dutchman will be supported once more by Bruno Fernandes, who has either scored (4) or assisted (2) six of Man United’s last 13 Premier League goals against Brighton. The Portuguese midfielder only has more goals and assists combined against Everton, Leeds (8 each) and Aston Villa (7) in the competition than against the Seagulls (6).
Noussair Mazraoui also impressed on his maiden appearance at right-back, while Matthijs de Ligt – who joined in a double defensive move from Bayern Munich – managed his first minutes late into the unconvincing victory.
That double defensive addition may ease the stress on Ten Hag, who will remain without new signing Lenny Yoro, Rasmus Højlund, Luke Shaw and Tyrell Malacia due to injury. Victor Lindelöf and Jadon Sancho could return for Saturday, however.
Those reinforcements will only aid Ten Hag’s case as United aim to win both of their first two games in a Premier League campaign for the first time since 2017-18, but they have to do so against an impressive Brighton at the Amex Stadium.
Brighton were far more assured in Fabian Hürzeler’s first game in the competition, sweeping Everton aside with a 3-0 triumph at Goodison Park. Kaoru Mitoma got things going with a well-taken opener before Danny Welbeck and Simon Adingra made sure of all three points in the second half.
Veteran forward Welbeck – a product of Man Utd’s academy – has found the net in 16 different Premier League campaigns, with only six players ever scoring in more (Ryan Giggs 21, Paul Scholes 19, Frank Lampard 18, John Terry 17, Jermain Defoe 17, James Milner 17).
Welbeck has also scored four Premier League goals against United, making him the highest-scoring former player against his old club in the competition.
Fellow experienced campaigner Milner started in midfield alongside new signing Mats Wieffer and showed no signs of slowing down. The 38-year-old has appeared in 23 different Premier League seasons, the most by any player in the competition’s history.
Milner has been on the winning side in 11 of his 35 appearances against United in the competition, with only Kyle Walker beating the Red Devils more (12), and that experience could be vital on Hürzeler’s home bow.
Brighton have lost four of their last five Premier League games (W1), more than they had in their previous 25 at the Amex Stadium (W14 D8 L3), but their form at the start of the season may excite the home supporters aiming for another win for the early league leaders.
The Seagulls have won 10 of their 22 Premier League games in August (D3 L9). It’s their highest win rate in a specific month in the competition (45%), while in no month have they won more games (also 10 in December).
As for the hosts’ team news, Tariq Lamptey, Pervis Estupiñán and Evan Ferguson will be assessed in the build-up to Saturday, though Yankuba Minteh, Julio Enciso, Bart Verbruggen and Solly March will miss the clash. Georginio Rutter completed a move from Leeds United in midweek, but is expected to start on the Brighton bench for this game.
Brighton vs Manchester United Head-to-Head
Brighton will fancy their chances here, having won four of their last five Premier League games against United. They did, however, lose the most recent meeting 2-0 at home on the final day of last season after goals from Diogo Dalot and Højlund.
United have also lost 43% of their meetings in the competition with Brighton (6/14), their highest loss rate against a single opponent in Premier League history.
That loss percentage will go some way to explaining why none of the 14 Premier League meetings between Brighton and Man Utd have been drawn, with the Seagulls winning six to the Red Devils’ eight.
Only Manchester United against Wigan (16) has been played more often in the competition without ever finishing level, so is another home win on the cards here?
Brighton vs Manchester United Prediction
Both sides are eyeing consecutive victories to start the season, though the Opta supercomputer struggled to split the pair across 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Brighton were victorious in 39.4% of the data-led simulations, while United’s victory chances ranked at 36%. A point apiece, which has never happened in this Premier League clash, came in at 24.6%.
Owing to last week’s victory, United now finish fifth most often in Opta’s season predictions, with that likelihood at 17.4%. Brighton, meanwhile, may top the table at present but their most likely outcome is ninth (12.2%).
Brighton vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups
Brighton & Hove Albion: Jason Steele, Jack Hinshelwood, Lewis Dunk, Joël Veltman, Mats Wieffer, James Milner, Kaoru Mitoma, João Pedro, Simon Adingra, Danny Welbeck.
Manchester United: André Onana, Diogo Dalot, Lisandro Martínez, Harry Maguire, Noussair Mazraoui, Casemiro, Kobbie Mainoo, Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes, Alejandro Garnacho, Joshua Zirkzee.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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