Is Witt having a good enough year to win the AL MVP race? Yes. But is Judge’s massive season too much to overcome? Maybe. However, there are other factors at play, like how the Royals have risen behind Witt’s leadership.
It’s been a meteoric rise that has coincided with the Kansas City Royals’ return to relevance.
The Royals were one of the worst teams in Major League Baseball last year, finishing with a 56-106 record. They decided it was time to take the next step and had a fairly productive offseason, which has helped the organization reach an unexpected level of success this year.
Kansas City is 71-56 heading into Friday’s action, just two games behind the Cleveland Guardians in the AL Central and 3.5 games up for a wild-card spot. However, the primary reason behind the team’s spectacular jump hasn’t been what the Royals brought in the offseason.
It has been Bobby Witt Jr.’s growth.
The 24-year-old All-Star leads the American League with a .352 batting average. As of now, he’s the fourth-youngest player to hit .350 or better in a season in the divisional era (since 1969).
Youngest Players with .350+ Batting Average – Since 1969
- 1996 Alex Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners: 20 Years, 340 Days/.358
- 2020 Juan Soto, Washington Nationals: 21 Years, 250 Days/.351
- 2003 Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals: 23 Years, 66 Days/.359
- 2024 Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals: 24 Years, 17 Days/.352
- 1984 Tony Gwynn, San Diego Padres: 24 Years, 53 Days/.351
Witt is also second in slugging percentage (.619), and third in OBP (.402) and OPS (1.020), proving every day, with his performance, that his 2023 campaign was no fluke.
His excellence, however, goes well beyond rate stats. If you are looking for totals, he has been marvelous in that department, too, ranking first in the AL in runs scored (110) and hits (178), second in total bases (313), doubles (38), triples (11) and extra-base hits (74) and fifth in RBIs (92).
Witt’s also on pace for his second straight season with 30 home runs and 30 steals. His defense is spectacular, as he leads the entire league in Outs Above Average (OAA) with 17 and is fifth among MLB shortstops with seven Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). He adds value at the plate, on the field, and the bases.
Last year, he slashed a solid .276/.319/.495 with 30 homers and a .813 OPS. That’s a good, if rather unspectacular year. But he was a top prospect for a reason, and he has taken a major leap this year as many expected.
If his .352 average this season holds up, Witt would have the 12th largest increase in average from one year to the next of the divisional era (since 1969).
Largest Increase in Batting Average – Since 1969
- 1999-2000 Darin Erstad, Anaheim Angels: .253/.355/+.102
- 2003-04 Adrian Beltre, Los Angeles Dodgers: .240/.334/+.094
- 1978-79 Keith Hernandez, St. Louis Cardinals: .255/.344/+.089
- 1989-90 Lenny Dykstra, New York Mets-Philadelphia Phillies: .237/.325/+.088
- 1989-90 Eddie Murray, Los Angeles Dodgers: .247/.330/+.083
- 2017-18 Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox: .264/.346/+.082
- 2014-15 Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox: .240/.320/+.080
- 2018-19 Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox: .235/.315/+.080
- 1976-77 Lenny Randle, Texas Rangers-New York Mets: .224/.304/+.080
- 1970-71 Bobby Murcer, New York Yankees: .251/.331/+.080
- 2011-12 Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox: .227/.304/+.077
- 2023-24 Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals: .276/.352/+.076
All these situations, stats and facts lead to the million-dollar question: Is Witt having a good enough year to be an American League MVP candidate?
The answer to that question is rather subjective even if the numbers can speak loudly at times, but it’s a yes. Now, he’s not the top candidate to win the MVP award, but he should be in the conversation despite superstar slugger Aaron Judge putting up video game numbers.
According to Bovada MLB MVP odds, Judge is the favorite at -5000 while Witt is second at +850, followed by Judge’s teammate and former NL MVP candidate Juan Soto, Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles and Jose Ramirez of the Cleveland Guardians.
That’s how good Witt has been. How has he done it? Rather than a single department in which he has markedly improve, he has grown in multiple aspects of his game.
For example, much of his success can be attributed to improving against fastballs. He was already good against heaters last year (.525 slugging percentage), but he is murdering them this year to the tune of a .655 slugging percentage.
This version of Witt can catch up to high heat more consistently:
His performance against breaking balls has also improved. It’s actually where he made the most gains. Last season, he slugged .384 against this pitch type, but the number has gone up to .598 (!) in 2024.
His high .379 BABIP does seem to indicate he has been a tad lucky, but he has made enough gains to sustain a high BABIP. To support this claim and help explain how much he has improved year-to-year, we will use raw value (RV), contact+ and BIP+.
Let’s start with BIP+. The stat tries to evaluate how much damage a hitter inflicts on contact. The league average is 100, and higher is better for batters.
BIP+ is actually one of the three key components of an at-bat that we measure, along with discipline+ and contact+. Together, they all add up to a player’s RV+, which is a useful metric that examines what happens (both offensively and from a pitching standpoint) after every pitch, not just the final outcome of the at-bat.
Witt ranks fourth among qualified American League hitters with a 185 BIP+. Hitting the ball hard consistently contributes to a high BABIP and helps explain why his batting average might be (somewhat) sustainable.
Per total RV – one of the most accurate ways to evaluate hitting performance and value accumulated throughout the season – the Royals star ranks fifth in MLB and third in the American League, behind Judge and Soto. If we go to the rate version of RV, Witt is also fifth in the majors with a 170 mark. He was already elite last year at 140 RV+, but the difference between his two seasons is enough to prove just how much he has advanced as a hitter.
Witt, who finished fourth in the 2022 AL Rookie of the Year voting, now excels – instead of just holding his own – at hitting just about any pitch regardless of whether it’s thrown by a lefty or a righty. In fact, an important thing to understand when digesting everything he has achieved this year has been his improvement against right-handers.
We mentioned Witt’s ability to hit fastballs earlier, and he’s put up a 207 BIP+ against righty two-seamers and a 266 mark against righty four-seamers.
Overall, he posted an .800 OPS against pitchers from the same hand last year. This season, he has added 0.237 points to that number, posting a 1.037 mark. That’s second in the majors behind only Judge and well ahead of Marcell Ozuna of the Atlanta Braves and Vladimir Guerrero of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Witt went from being an ascending young hitter with above-average offensive performance last year to a true multi-category star and MVP candidate.
Judge leads the way in WAR at 9.2 with Witt a close second at 8.4. Judge has also been bette in both total raw value (66.8) and RV+ (203), even if Soto leads both categories.
Witt, however, does have a case because he leads some stats and categories; and also because he is seen as the more complete player given his baserunning and defensive contributions. And don’t forget how much he’s elevated the Royals back into playoff contenders after eight straight non-winning seasons and an average of 97.0 losses over the past three.
Shohei Ohtani isn’t a factor now that he’s in the National League, Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels has been hurt most of the year and voters have surprised us before, but Witt has done enough to earn some of their attention and could still turn the tides with an elite stretch run.
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