As the world gears up for the 2024 Olympics in Paris, tennis enthusiasts are brimming with anticipation for what promises to be an unforgettable tournament in the historic Roland Garros Stadium.
Number one seed Novak Djokovic looks to add an elusive Olympic gold medal to his resume to complete his career Grand Slam; meanwhile, world No. 1 Iga Swiatek aims to secure a gold medal on her favorite surface, where she has shown exceptional dominance. The tournament will also serve as a farewell to beloved players Andy Murray and Angelique Kerber, who will be making their final appearances, among many other exciting stories.
As players from around the globe fight for their countries and a spot on the podium, they are prepared to leave it all on the court for a chance to win a medal.
The Paris 2024 tennis event, the first Olympic clay court event since the 1992 Barcelona Olympics and the first Olympic tournament at a Grand Slam venue since London 2012, kicks off on Saturday 27 July. We turn to the Opta supercomputer for its Paris 2024 Olympics predictions as the first round begins.
2024 Olympics: Tennis Competition
About: The Paris 2024 tennis event is the first Olympic clay court event since the 1992 Barcelona Olympics. It will also be the first Olympic tournament at a Grand Slam venue since the London 2012 event was played at the Wimbledon Championships venue.
When: 27 July – 4 August 2024
Where: Stade Roland Garros in Paris, France
Draw Size: 64 in men’s and women’s singles draws, 32 in men’s and women’s doubles draws, and 16 in the mixed doubles draw.
Reigning Olympic Medallists:
- Men’s Singles:
- Gold: Zverev (GER)
- Silver: Khachanov
- Bronze: Carreno Busta (ESP)
- Women’s Singles:
- Gold: Bencic (SUI)
- Silver: Vondrousova (CZE)
- Bronze: Svitolina (UKR)
- Men’s Doubles:
- Gold: Mektic/Pavic (CRO)
- Silver: Cilic/Dodig (CRO)
- Bronze: Daniell/Venus (NZL)
- Women’s Doubles:
- Gold: Krejcikova/Siniakova (CZE)
- Silver: Bencic/Golubic (SUI)
- Bronze: Pigosi/Stefani (BRA)
- Mixed Doubles:
- Gold: Pavlyuchenkova/Rublev
- Silver: Vesnina/Karatsev
- Bronze: Barty/Peers (AUS)
Who Will Win the Gold Medal at the 2024 Olympics?
- Swiatek and Alcaraz are the favorites to win the Paris 2024 Olympics with a 20% and 14% likelihood, respectively.
- Djokovic has a 9% likelihood of winning the gold medal and adding a career Grand Slam to his list of accolades.
- Coco Gauff, who will be the flag bearer for Team USA at the opening ceremony, is among the favorites in both the singles and doubles (8% and 4% likelihood of winning, respectively)
- Italian pairs of Bolelli/Vavassori and Errani/Paolini are the favorites to win the gold medal in the doubles draws with an 18% and 17% likelihood, respectively.
Men’s Singles at Paris 2024
Carlos Alcaraz is the big favorite to take home the gold medal in the men’s singles draw after winning two straight Grand Slams in 2024 (Roland Garros and Wimbledon). The Opta supercomputer gives him a 14% likelihood of winning the Olympics.
Novak Djokovic is looking to become the third man to complete a career grand slam in men’s singles competition, after Agassi and Nadal. His best results at the Olympics include a bronze medal in the 2008 Beijing Olympics, and a fourth-place finish at the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. He is the second most likely to win the event with a 9% probability.
The defending champion at the Olympics, Alexander Zverev, is another favourite with an 8% likelihood to win after making the Roland Garros finals this year on the courts he’ll be playing on.
Rafael Nadal, the only participating player in the men’s singles draw who has won a career Golden Slam, has a 1.2% chance of winning. His path to win gold will be a tough one, as he could face top seed Djokovic in the second round, should they both win their first match.
Women’s Singles at Paris 2024
It’s no surprise that world number one Iga Swiatek is the top contender to win the gold medal in the women’s single draw, with an overwhelming 20% likelihood. On a surface and venue where she’s won four French Open titles (three years in a row), including one last month, it is difficult to see past another victory for the Pole.
The women’s singles draw features four American women (Gauff, Pegula, Collins and Navarro), with all four of them being seeded and within the top nine favourites to win the event. The combined likelihood that one of them wins the gold medal is 20%, with Gauff leading the way as the second favourite to win the tournament with an 8% probability.
Men’s Doubles at Paris 2024
The favorites to win the men’s doubles draw are the No. 1 seed and Italian pair of Simone Bolelli and Andrea Vavassori. The team, who recently made the French Open final, has an 18% likelihood of winning the gold medal.
Croatians Mate Pavic and Nikola Mektic (#7 seeds) are looking to win back-to-back gold medals. In fact, Pavic recently completed a career golden slam this year when he won the 2024 French Open. Because the pair have not played together since last year, the Opta supercomputer gives them just a 2% chance of winning the gold medal once again.
Women’s Doubles at Paris 2024
Just like the men’s doubles draw, the favourites to win the women’s draw are also Italian. Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini have been thriving on clay in doubles winning the Italian Open and making the French Open finals this year, making them the doubles pairing most likely to win gold in Paris, with a 17% projected chance.
The Tokyo 2020 gold medallists Barbora Krejcikova and Kateřina Siniakova are the fourth favourites to get back-to-back gold medals with a 4% likelihood, despite not having played together since last year. Together, the pair have already achieved a career super slam (won all four Grand Slam titles, the Olympic gold medal and the year-end championship over the course of their careers), which make them some of the toughest opponents despite not being the top seeds.
How the Opta Tennis Tournament Simulator Works
Our tournament projection model simulates the outcome of the tournament 10,000 times, estimating every player’s likelihood to get through each round of the draw based on their skill strength, where they are in the draw and the skill of the potential opponents they could face.
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