As the quarter-finals get started at Euro 2024, we look ahead to the favourites against the hosts in Stuttgart with our Spain vs Germany prediction and preview.
Spain vs Germany Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer gives Spain the slight edge, with La Roja winning 38% of pre-match simulations in normal time.
- Their last meeting came at the 2022 World Cup, where they drew 1-1 in the group stage.
- Germany have progressed from 15 of their 19 quarter-final ties at major tournaments (World Cup and Euros).
It has already been an enthralling tournament, but there’s something about the prospect of Spain vs Germany that really gets the juices flowing as the quarter-finals of Euro 2024 begin.
It’ll be a big task for the hosts against the only team to have won all four of their games.
No host nation has ever been eliminated at the quarter-final stage of the UEFA European Championship, with all four previous host quarter-finalists progressing: England won a penalty shootout against Spain in 1996, the Netherlands beat Yugoslavia 6-1 in 2000, Portugal beat England on penalties in 2004, and France defeated Iceland 5-2 in 2016.
Germany have an excellent record at this stage, too. This will be their 19th quarter-final tie across the World Cup (14) and European Championship (5), the most of any European nation at the two major tournaments. They have progressed from 15 of their previous 18 (83%), including all four at the Euros (1996, 2008, 2012, 2016).
Julian Nagelsmann’s men won their group after beating Scotland (5-1) and Hungary (2-0) before drawing with Switzerland (1-1). They had to overcome a thunderstorm in Dortmund before beating Denmark 2-0 in the round of 16.
It has been slightly smoother for Spain, with Luis de la Fuente’s side also topping their group, beating Croatia (3-0), Italy (1-0) and Albania (1-0), before coming from behind to ease past Georgia 4-1 in the last 16.
This will be a meeting of Euro 2024’s two top-scoring teams. Spain have scored nine goals, while Germany have 10, which is already their joint-most in a single edition of the competition. In fact, their shot conversion rate of 13.9% is currently their highest in an edition since Euro 2008 (14.5%), though they went on to lose to Spain in the final that year.
Toni Kroos has been rolling back the years, knowing that each game could now be his last before retirement. He has completed 95% of his passes at the tournament (411/431), the highest completion rate by a player to attempt 300+ passes at a European Championship on record (since 1980). Indeed, Kroos also leads all players at Euro 2024 for line-breaking passes (125).
The future of the Nationalelf should be in good hands though, especially with Jamal Musiala around. Musiala has scored in three of Germany’s four games (three goals) and is joint-top scorer at the tournament. The only player to score more goals in a single edition of a Euros while aged 21 or younger was Wayne Rooney for England in 2004 (four).
Spain have their own star players, but perhaps few will have anticipated the impact made by Fabián Ruiz so far. The Paris Saint-Germain midfielder has been involved in five goals in his last four games in all competitions for Spain (three goals, two assists). He’s both scored and assisted in two of his three games at Euro 2024 – no player has ever done so in three different games at a single edition of the European Championship.
However, the headlines have been grabbed by star wingers Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, who shone once more in the 4-1 win over Georgia.
Sixteen-year-old Yamal has provided two assists for Spain at Euro 2024, becoming just the third teenager on record (since 1980) to provide multiple assists at the competition after Enzo Scifo (1984) and Cristiano Ronaldo (2004). He’s rising to the challenge on the big stage, with 94% of his passes made while under pressure (106/113), the highest rate of any Spain player to play at least 180 minutes at Euro 2024.
Spain vs Germany Head-to-Head
This will be the fourth meeting between Spain and Germany at a European Championship, with Spain winning two (1984 and 2008) to Germany’s one (1988). Their last such meeting was in the 2008 final, with Spain winning 1-0 thanks to a Fernando Torres goal.
These two also faced off at the 2022 World Cup, playing out a 1-1 draw in the group stage. Álvaro Morata’s opener was cancelled out late on by Niclas Füllkrug.
Spain are unbeaten in their last four major tournament matches against Germany (W2 D2), with these games producing a total of just six goals (Spain 4, Germany 2).
Having said that, although Germany lost their first meeting with Spain on German soil (2-1 in a 1935 friendly), they are unbeaten in their last eight games against La Roja on their own turf (W5 D3).
Spain vs Germany Prediction
This one could barely be closer. The Opta supercomputer gives the slight edge to Spain, who won 38.0% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations inside 90 minutes, while Germany won 34.2%. The game went to extra-time in the remaining 27.8% of sims.
Taking into account the possibility of extra-time and penalties, Spain win the tie in 55.1% of simulations, while Germany go through in 44.9%.
Luis de la Fuente’s side are the new favourites with the supercomputer to win Euro 2024 (19.5%, as of writing), while Germany are fourth favourites (17.2%).
Spain vs Germany Squads
Spain
Álex Remiro, David Raya, Unai Simón, Álex Grimaldo, Aymeric Laporte, Dani Carvajal, Dani Vivian, Jesús Navas, Marc Cucurella, Nacho, Robin Le Normand, Álex Baena, Fabián Ruiz, Fermín López, Martín Zubimendi, Mikel Merino, Pedri, Rodri, Álvaro Morata, Ayoze Pérez, Dani Olmo, Ferran Torres, Joselu, Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Nico Williams.
Head coach: Luis de la Fuente
Germany
Manuel Neuer, Marc-André ter Stegen, Oliver Baumann, Antonio Rüdiger, Benjamin Henrichs, David Raum, Jonathan Tah, Joshua Kimmich, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Nico Schlotterbeck, Robin Koch, Waldemar Anton, Aleksandar Pavlovic, Chris Führich, Florian Wirtz, Ilkay Gündogan, Jamal Musiala, Leroy Sané, Pascal Groß, Robert Andrich, Toni Kroos, Deniz Undav, Kai Havertz, Maximilian Beier, Niclas Füllkrug, Thomas Müller.
Head coach: Julian Nagelsmann
Spain vs Germany Predicted Lineups
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