We look ahead to the Euro 2024 quarter-final in Hamburg with our Portugal vs France prediction and preview.
Portugal vs France Stats: The Key Insights
- France are backed by the Opta supercomputer, with Les Bleus given a 39.4% win likelihood.
- Portugal are unbeaten in their last two European Championship games against France, however.
- Cristiano Ronaldo is yet to score at Euro 2024, despite having more shots than any other player.
Portugal and France confirmed their places in the quarter-finals of Euro 2024, but neither side – who were among the pre-tournament favourites – were convincing in doing so.
Roberto Martínez had Diogo Costa to thank for his penalty heroics against Slovenia as the Porto goalkeeper spared Cristiano Ronaldo’s blushes in Frankfurt.
Ronaldo saw an extra-time spot-kick saved by Jan Oblak, reducing the five-time Ballon d’Or winner to tears at the interval before stepping up to score in the shootout.
Earlier that day, France were aided by the knee of Jan Vertonghen as they squeezed past Belgium in Düsseldorf, with their struggles in front of goal continuing.
Many will be optimistic of another enthralling encounter between two European powerhouses, who met in the final of Euro 2016. But based on current form, expectations ought to be tempered.
While both sides boast an array of attacking talent, they have misfired in Germany, and every little advantage will likely be crucial in a tight contest.
Portugal haven’t scored in their last two matches; they’ve never failed to net in three consecutive games at a single major tournament before.
Les Bleus have had a similar problem. Their three goals at Euro 2024 have come from two own goals and a Kylian Mbappé penalty.
Not since a run of five internationals between March and September 2013 have France seen their players fail to score from open play in as many matches.
However, their defence remained resolute in their time of need. France have an expected goals against (xGA) total of just 2.63 at Euro 2024, the lowest of any side in the quarter-finals and second lowest at the tournament overall after already-eliminated Serbia (2.57).
France have kept a clean sheet in three of their four games, the most of any side at the tournament, yet they are not being helped by the players in front of them.
Deschamps tried to reignite Les Bleus‘ attacking spark with a three-man strike force against Belgium, but the pickings were slim.
A trio of Mbappé, Marcus Thuram and Antoine Griezmann were preferred, with Randal Kolo Muani introduced late on, but it proved to be another largely blunt display.
France had 19 shots against the Red Devils, but just two were on target, and ultimately it was a touch of fortune that saw them through. Deschamps, however, has the opportunity to freshen up his forward line.
Portugal boss Martínez, on the other hand, will face his toughest decision yet on Ronaldo.
The 39-year-old endured an evening to forget against Slovenia but assumed responsibility for the Seleção‘s first spot-kick in the penalty shootout, and was sure not to make the same mistake twice.
During that game in Frankfurt, Ronaldo had the most shots (eight), shots on target (four) and touches in the opposition’s box (seven) of any player. A clinical edge is lacking, though.
Indeed, Portugal’s captain has mustered 20 shots at Euro 2024, the most of any player, but he’s yet to find the back of the net.
While it may be difficult to drop a player who is the all-time leading goalscorer in international football, Martínez could see this as an opportunity to tweak his frontline.
Having recorded an xG total of 1.97 against Slovenia, failing to take those opportunities against better opposition will surely have major consequences.
Portugal vs France Head-to-Head
This will be the fifth meeting between Portugal and France at the European Championship, with the Seleção unbeaten in the last two.
France won the first two meetings, going on to lift the trophy both times (3-2 in 1984, 2-1 in 2000), and Les Bleus know a win could send them on their way to silverware once again.
But Martínez’s side will similarly fancy their chances of claiming a second European Championship crown should they triumph here.
The previous four teams to eliminate France at the quarter-final stage of a major tournament have gone on to win the trophy (Italy in the 1938 World Cup, Greece at Euro 2004, Spain at Euro 2012 and Germany at the 2014 World Cup).
Portugal vs France Prediction
France are predicted to emerge victorious in Hamburg, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 39.4% chance of winning inside 90 minutes at the Volksparkstadion.
Portugal triumphed in 31% of the 10,000 data-led simulations, with a draw forecast at 29.6%, meaning extra-time and penalties are a real possibility.
Taking potential extra-time and penalties into consideration, the supercomputer gives France a 60.6% likelihood of reaching the semi-finals; Portugal progressed in 39.4% of the sims.
Les Bleus went on to win the trophy in 18.2% of the latest simulations, making them third favourites. Portugal were successful in 7.6%, making them sixth favourites.
Portugal vs France Squads
Portugal
Diogo Costa, José Sá, Rui Patrício, António Silva, Danilo Pereira, Diogo Dalot, Gonçalo Inácio, João Cancelo, Nélson Semedo, Nuno Mendes, Pepe, Rúben Dias, Bruno Fernandes, João Neves, João Palhinha, Matheus Nunes, Rúben Neves, Vitinha, Bernardo Silva, Cristiano Ronaldo, Diogo Jota, Francisco Conceição, Gonçalo Ramos, João Félix, Pedro Neto, Rafael Leão.
Head coach: Roberto Martínez
France
Alphonse Areola, Brice Samba, Mike Maignan, Benjamin Pavard, Dayot Upamecano, Ferland Mendy, Ibrahima Konaté, Jonathan Clauss, Jules Koundé, Théo Hernández, William Saliba, Adrien Rabiot, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Eduardo Camavinga, N’Golo Kanté, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Youssouf Fofana, Antoine Griezmann, Bradley Barcola, Kingsley Coman, Kylian Mbappé, Marcus Thuram, Olivier Giroud, Ousmane Dembélé, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head coach: Didier Deschamps
Portugal vs France Predicted Lineups
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