Paris 2024, Opta Power Rankings, and Olympic Questions

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. This week’s edition includes numbers on Australian drama, the Opta Power Rankings, and football at the Olympics.

With the 2024 Olympic Games taking place in Paris, we’re all doing it aren’t we?

Watching several sports we only really engage with once every four years, deciding we’re suddenly experts on synchronised diving, skateboarding and dressage.

However, one thing we do feel comfortable analysing in SVQ is football, which has also started in Paris. There was an astonishing game on Sunday that we’ll be looking into in greater detail.

If you can believe it, European competitions in club football are also starting again. Champions League, Europa League and Conference League qualifiers for 2024-25 are already taking place, and producing some rather lop-sided contests on paper; we’ll use the Opta Power Rankings to highlight just how big the gulf is in one particular tie.

Our quiz will be Olympics-themed this week – because we’re nothing if not topical – and we have an Ask Opta question about Liverpool’s midfield, so let’s get into it.

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STAT – Could We Actually See Manchester City vs The Dog and Duck?

No sooner have Real Madrid, Atalanta and Olympiakos lifted the three major European trophies than we’re doing it all again.

The qualifying rounds for the UEFA Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League have begun, and they’ve thrown up some interesting ties.

The one that caught the eye and imagination of many, though, was the Conference League second qualifying round clash between Danish giants FC Copenhagen and Gibraltar’s Bruno’s Magpies.

Copenhagen reached the first knockout stage of the Champions League last season, beating Manchester United along the way, while FCB Magpies were only formed in 2013 by a group who used to drink in the same bar together, and the club remains semi-professional.

According to our new and improved Opta Power Rankings, Copenhagen are the 76th best team in the world, while their Gibraltarian opponents sit in 4,039th place. That’s a gap of 3,963 places.

For context, they are three places below Maryland Bobcats, who play in the National Independent Soccer Association in the third division in the United States.

You could therefore argue it was quite a good result for Nathan Rooney’s Magpies that they only lost 3-0 in the first leg on home soil last week, with the return leg taking place at Parken Stadion on Thursday.

But what would equivalent ties be according to the Power Rankings?

Well, it would be like Manchester City (ranked 1st) facing German Regionalliga side FC Eilenburg, or European champions Real Madrid (2nd) taking on Italian Serie D outfit Flaminia.

Fifth-place Arsenal would have a tie against Italian fifth-tier side U.C. Montecchio Maggiore, while seventh-place Barcelona would go up against HIFK from the fifth tier of Finnish football.

We could go on and on, but if you want to compare clashes yourself, or just see where your team sits, head over to the Opta Analyst site now to check out the latest Power Rankings.

VIZ – Going for Goal-d

There has already been plenty of excitement at the Paris Olympics.

Hosts France winning the men’s rugby sevens, Simone Biles dazzling in the gymnastics and the fingertip victory for Italy’s Nicolo Martinenghi in the men’s 100 metre breaststroke are just some of the highlights so far.

However, those with an interest in the football were treated to a gem of a game on Sunday when Australia took on Zambia in the women’s event.

Australia lost their first Group B match against Germany 3-0, while Zambia went down by the same score against the United States, so it was a key game for both in their second outing as they looked to stay in contention.

A remarkable encounter unfolded at Allianz Riviera in Nice, with Zambia captain Barbra Banda scoring the first goal in the opening minute. Her hat-trick was completed in first-half stoppage time to make it 4-2 to Zambia.

They looked in great shape to claim the win after they made it 5-2 early in the second half as Racheal Kundananji grabbed her second goal of the game, but Australia started to fight back.

The Matildas began waltzing through their opponents, including skipper Steph Catley scoring twice – one a penalty – as they were able to level things at 5-5.

Catley then set up Michelle Heyman for a 90th-minute winner for Australia to conclude one of the most incredible matches in women’s Olympic history.

That 11th goal made it the second highest-scoring women’s Olympics football match ever, after Netherlands 10-3 Zambia at Tokyo 2020.

There were an incredible 52 shots in the game (Australia 27-25 Zambia), the most on Opta’s records (since 2012) in a women’s Olympics game, and seven more than the next most.

It wasn’t the only game that saw drama on Sunday, though. Japan managed to turn a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 win against Brazil despite not equalising until the 92nd minute as substitute Momoko Tanikawa grabbed a 96th-minute winner at the Parc des Princes.

At the Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, hosts France were left heartbroken when Canada claimed a 2-1 victory with a goal in the 102nd minute from Vanessa Gilles. In fact, there were as many 90th-minute goals in the women’s Olympics on Sunday (4) as the whole of Tokyo 2020 (excl. extra-time).

Let’s hope the excitement continues.

QUIZ – Paris Posers

It may not get as much attention as other international football tournaments, but the Olympic Games is still a big deal to many. How much do you know about the history, though? Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. Across men’s and women’s tournaments, which country has won the most gold medals in football at the Olympics?

2. Which team had to settle for silver at the last two Olympic Games in women’s football?

3. Which country won their only football gold medal ever in the men’s event at the London 2012 Games?

4. Which Brazilian has scored the most goals overall in the men’s football at the Olympics on record (since 2012)?

5. Canada’s Christine Sinclair is the joint-top scorer overall in the women’s football event at the Olympics on record (since 2012), scoring 10 goals in 16 games. Which Dutch striker has the same number of goals in a quarter of the games?

Ask Opta

This week’s query comes from Bilal Ahmed Shariff, who asks: “Over the 2023-24 football season, in Europe’s top five leagues, which players performed similarly to 2019-20 Fabinho? As you might guess, I am a Liverpool fan and I want to know which defensive midfielder is best suited for my club. Would appreciate your help!”

Do you have a stat-based question you’d like Opta to answer in a future edition of SVQ? Email us at editors@theanalyst.com or message us on X @OptaAnalyst with #AskOpta and we’ll pick the best one.

Answer:

A great question Bilal, and one we tried to answer last summer when Fabinho left Liverpool and needed replacing. Needless to say we didn’t predict Stuttgart’s Wataru Endo being the replacement at the time, but there we are.

Using the Opta Player Radars, which measures selected player data and provides percentages for how closely other players produced in comparison, we can see which current four players profile most closely to Fabinho in the 2019-20 season. That was of course the year Liverpool won the Premier League title.

According to the Radars, of players in Europe’s top five leagues in 2023-24, Atalanta’s Marten de Roon was the closest to replicating Fabinho’s output from 2019-20, considered to have 82% similarity. The former Middlesbrough man was followed by Hoffenheim’s Florian Grillitsch (76%), Lille’s Nabil Bentaleb (74%) and Marseille’s Geoffrey Kondogbia (72%).

In terms of how appropriate those comparisons are, you’d have to say the style of play is very similar. All are defensive-minded midfield players and something Liverpool arguably still need after Fabinho’s departure. However, looking at them as potential signings, each of the four players above are aged 28 years or older and you would think new sporting director Richard Hughes will probably want someone a bit younger.

Also, with Arne Slot replacing Jürgen Klopp in the Liverpool dugout, it’s unclear if the Dutchman’s setup would benefit from that type of player as much as Klopp’s did.

It will be interesting to see if Liverpool move for a defensive midfielder this summer, but we’ll be honest, it would surprise us if 33-year-old De Roon was the man to arrive at Anfield. Never say never, though.