Goals are expected as the Netherlands take on Turkey at Euro 2024. We look ahead to the last quarter-final tie with our Netherlands vs Turkey prediction and preview.
Netherlands vs Turkey Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes the Netherlands favourites for the last Euro 2024 quarter-final, giving them a 58.6% chance of beating Turkey in 90 minutes.
- The last two matches between the Netherlands and Turkey have featured 13 goals (6.5 per game). Turkey won 4-2 in March 2021 and the Oranje won 6-1 later that year.
- Arda Güler is one of just three teenagers to score and assist at a single Euros, after Wayne Rooney (4 goals, 1 assist) and Cristiano Ronaldo (2 goals, 2 assists), both at Euro 2004.
The fourth quarter-final at Euro 2024 sees the Netherlands take on Turkey in what promises to be a thriller at Berlin’s Olympiastadion.
Ronald Koeman’s side clicked into gear in the last 16 after toiling in the group stage, dispatching Romania by a 3-0 scoreline.
Turkey, meanwhile, beat Austria 2-1 in a thriller, with goalkeeper Mert Günok making arguably the save of the tournament so far to ensure Vincenzo Montella’s team avoided extra-time.
Turkey are looking to win three consecutive matches at the European Championship for the first time, and only the second time at major tournaments overall, after doing so at the 2002 World Cup as they reached the semi-finals.
The data from this tournament suggests we should expect goalmouth action. These sides both rank in the top eight teams at Euro 2024 for expected goals (xG), with the Netherlands (6.56) coming in at sixth, and Turkey (6.11) in eighth. The Netherlands have had the fifth-most shots (63) in the competition, while Turkey have had the sixth-most (57).
Both these teams like to attack, but in defence, the Dutch clearly have the edge, and in fairness, that should be expected with the likes of Stefan de Vrij, Nathan Aké and Virgil van Dijk in their squad.
Koeman’s team have recorded 3.84 expected goals against (xGA) across their four matches, in contrast to Turkey’s 8.0. Indeed, of the teams in the last eight of the tournament, Montella’s side have faced the most shots (59).
The Netherlands have progressed from five of their last seven major tournament quarter-finals, although one of the two exceptions was their most recent such tie, when they lost in a penalty shootout to Argentina at the 2022 World Cup.
This is their first European Championship quarter-final since 2008, when they lost 3-1 to Russia, and they have only progressed from three of their last nine knockout ties in the competition.
Turkey, meanwhile, are participating in their fourth major tournament quarter-final, having previously reached the last eight at Euro 2000, the 2002 World Cup and Euro 2008. They reached the semi-finals at the latter two tournaments, after losing 2-0 to Portugal in 2000.
They will have to keep an eye on their discipline, having received 18 yellow cards at Euro 2024. In European Championship history, only Czech Republic in 1996 have been given more cards at a single edition (20 – 19 yellows, one red).
Montella’s team have picked up at least two cards in each of their last 24 matches at major tournaments, and they will have to tread carefully as they look to keep Cody Gakpo quiet.
Gakpo’s brilliant strike got the ball rolling against Romania, taking him onto three goals for the tournament – a joint-high tally ahead of the quarter-finals.
Across the 2022 World Cup and Euro 2024, the only European player with more goals than Gakpo (six) is Kylian Mbappé (nine).
All six of Gakpo’s strikes have come in different matches; the only Dutch players to score in more different games at major tournaments are Dennis Bergkamp (10), Robin van Persie (8), and Wesley Sneijder (7).
Turkey, meanwhile, will look to Arda Güler for inspiration, after he assisted Merih Demiral’s winner versus Austria. The 19-year-old is one of just three teenagers to both score and set up a goal at a single Euros, after Wayne Rooney (4 goals, 1 assist) and Cristiano Ronaldo (2 goals, 2 assists) at Euro 2004.
Turkey have given six starts to teenagers at Euro 2024 – three for Kenan Yildiz and three for Güler – a joint record in a single edition of the finals, along with Spain at Euro 2020 (6, all for Pedri).
Montella will be without Demiral after he was suspended for two games by the UEFA Appeals Body for: “failing to comply with the general principles of conduct, for violating the basic rules of decent conduct, for using sports events for manifestations of a non-sporting nature and for bringing the sport of football into disrepute.”
Netherlands vs Turkey Head-to-Head
This will be the 15th international meeting between Netherlands and Turkey.
The Oranje have won six of the previous 14, with Turkey winning four and the others finishing level. However, this tie is the first fixture between these teams to come at a major tournament.
If recent meetings between these nations are anything to go by, then we should anticipate plenty of excitement from Saturday’s clash.
The last two matches between the Netherlands and Turkey have seen a combined 13 goals (6.5 per game), with Turkey winning 4-2 in March 2021 and the Oranje winning 6-1 in September 2021, both in qualifying for the 2022 World Cup.
Netherlands vs Turkey Prediction
Turkey dumped out one of the group stage’s most impressive teams when they sent Austria packing on Tuesday, but it is the Netherlands who are made favourites by the Opta supercomputer.
The Dutch are given a 58.6% chance of success inside 90 minutes, while Turkey’s chances are rated at a rather slimmer 19.0%. The likelihood of a draw – meaning extra-time and potentially penalties – is 22.4%.
Netherlands vs Turkey Squads
Netherlands
Bart Verbruggen, Justin Bijlow, Mark Flekken, Daley Blind, Denzel Dumfries, Jeremie Frimpong, Lutsharel Geertruida, Matthijs de Ligt, Micky van de Ven, Nathan Aké, Stefan de Vrij, Virgil van Dijk, Ian Maatsen, Georginio Wijnaldum, Jerdy Schouten, Joey Veerman, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Xavi Simons, Brian Brobbey, Joshua Zirkzee, Cody Gakpo, Donyell Malen, Memphis Depay, Steven Bergwijn, Wout Weghorst.
Head coach: Ronald Koeman
Turkey
Altay Bayindir, Mert Günok, Ugurcan Çakir, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Ahmetcan Kaplan, Kaan Ayhan, Merih Demiral, Mert Müldür, Samet Akaydin, Zeki Çelik, Arda Güler, Ferdi Kadioglu, Hakan Çalhanoglu, Irfan Can Kahveci, Ismail Yüksek, Okay Yokuslu, Orkun Kökçü, Salih Özcan, Baris Alper Yilmaz, Bertug Yildirim, Cenk Tosun, Kenan Yildiz, Kerem Aktürkoglu, Semih Kiliçsoy, Yunus Akgün, Yusuf Yazici.
Head coach: Vincenzo Montella
Netherlands vs Turkey Predicted Lineups
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