Euro 2024: Rueful Ronaldo, the Opta Supercomputer, and Round-of-16 Questions

Stat, Viz, Quiz is the Opta Analyst football newsletter. Our latest edition includes some of the most interesting numbers from the last 16 at Euro 2024.

Many questioned whether the European Championship should have expanded to 24 teams in 2016.

Well, without it, we’d likely have had no Slovakia, no Georgia and no Slovenia, and certainly no round of 16, so you can thank that decision for the drama we witnessed over the last week at Euro 2024.

We had Jude Bellingham’s 95th-minute bicycle kick, Georgia taking the lead against Spain (forget what happened after that), Jan Oblak’s penalty save from Cristiano Ronaldo (also forget what happened after that), and that phenomenal last-minute save from Turkey’s Mert Günok.

Our latest Euros SVQ takes a closer look at Ronaldo, who was the talk of the tournament after his eventful game on Monday, while we’ll also be investigating the updated Opta supercomputer projections.

There’s also our latest quiz, and a caption competition that gives you your say on the masked winger, Kylian Mbappé (we know what you’re going to say, but ‘masked striker’ doesn’t really work as a play on words).

Let’s get going…

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STAT – Is Cristiano Ronaldo Actually Good at Free-Kicks?

Cristiano Ronaldo is one of the greatest players of all time. To many, he is the greatest.

He is also struggling to make an impact at Euro 2024, and questions are being asked as to whether he should still be leading the line for Portugal.

Both of those things can be true at the same time, and we say this mainly in the hope of avoiding the inevitable barrage of comments that follows anyone who suggests Ronaldo has flaws. The same goes for Lionel Messi, or Kylian Mbappé, or Erling Haaland, or near enough any player if you search social media long enough. “Don’t you say those things about Tony Hibbert! ”

Following his fascinating story arc of penalty miss, tears, and penalty success in Portugal’s last-16 shootout win against Slovenia, there has been even greater focus than usual on the 39-year-old.

Ronaldo is yet to score at Euro 2024 (not including his penalty in the shootout) despite having had 20 shots, amassing an expected goals (xG) total of 2.75, including the penalty he saw saved by Slovenia goalkeeper Jan Oblak in extra-time that caused his emotions to rise to the surface.

It’s understandable that he started for Portugal at the tournament, having been his country’s top scorer in qualifying, but Ronaldo has taken more shots than any other player in Germany, and as mentioned, is yet to register a goal.

We have investigated Ronaldo in greater detail on the Opta Analyst website, so here we’ll just be looking at one factor in particular; his free-kicks.

Almost all own goals scored at Euro 2024 so far have been unfortunate deflections from crosses, with Akaydin an exception with his errant back-pass for Turkey against Portugal.

We wondered if it might be that there are simply more crosses these days, but quite the opposite. There were an average of 32.1 crosses per game at Euro 2020 and there have been an average of 33.8 at Euro 2024. Prior to these two editions, there had not been an average below 38.4 at a Euros on record (since 1980).

Could it therefore just be good old-fashioned variance? Defending is often more open than it used to be as fewer teams take on a low block style, but given the generally unlucky nature of own goals, perhaps it’s just as simple as more bad luck than there used to be, while of course there were fewer games in the tournament prior to Euro 2016.

We’ll keep an eye on it in the knockout rounds, but our tip for defenders would be to stay away from ladders, mirrors and black cats for the next few weeks.

STATS UPDATE

Regular readers will know we have covered the high numbers of goals from outside the box and own goals at Euro 2024, and we thought you might like to know how both totals are getting on after the last 16.

There’s not much to update in terms of goals from outside the box, as we haven’t had any since Youri Tielemans gave Belgium an early lead against Romania on Matchday 2 of the group stage. The total remains at 15, behind Euro 2016 (16) and Euro 2020 (19). Fourteen of the first 237 shots from outside the box at Euro 2024 were scored (one of the goals from outside the box was an own goal), but since then there have been 210 shots from range without success.

You might be thinking “What about Rodri’s goal against Georgia?” Well, when the Spain midfielder hit his shot to equalise on Sunday, the ball was actually on the line of the penalty area.

However, with the addition of Robin Le Normand (Spain vs Georgia) and Jan Vertonghen (France vs Belgium) finding their own nets in the last few days, there have now been nine own goals in the tournament, just two short of the 11 we saw at Euro 2020. As a reminder, prior to Euro 2020, there had never been more than three own goals at a European Championship.

We’ll keep you updated as the tournament continues.

VIZ – Who Will Win Euro 2024?

Euro 2024 projection change — Viz by Jonathan Manuel

Supercomputer numbers accurate as of 3 July, 2024

Some questions have confused mankind for centuries. Why are we here? Who built the pyramids? How can England still be favourites for Euro 2024 when they’ve played so poorly?

Firstly, we can assure you rumours that we’ve been sneaking into the Opta supercomputer room and whispering “It’s coming home” to it are wide of the mark.

Anyway, as you can see from the viz above, Spain are now favourites with the supercomputer to go all the way in Germany.

Despite being more reliant on dramatic moments of brilliance to get this far, England are still the second likeliest to win the tournament, mostly due to being on the so-called ‘easier’ side of the draw, though Switzerland will almost certainly have something to say about that when they meet in the quarter-finals on Saturday.

Spain, on the other hand, are worthy favourites. Luis de la Fuente’s side are the only team to have won all four of their games at Euro 2024, having scored the second-most goals (9, behind only Germany’s 10) from the highest xG total (8.9) while also conceding the joint-fewest goals (1, level with France).

As you can see, La Roja’s performances have led to their projections improving more than any other team since the start of the tournament, when they were fourth favourites behind England, France and Germany, with their chances improving from 9.6% to 19.5%.

Spain would probably be even heavier favourites if it weren’t for the fact they play hosts Germany in the quarter-finals, and should they advance, will face either France or Portugal in the semis.

That strong-looking side of the draw is likely also why France and Germany’s chances aren’t rated higher, though Julian Nagelsmann’s men have seen their likelihood improve after largely impressing in their home tournament.

The Netherlands’ hopes have gone up after reaching the knockout stage and then dispatching Romania in convincing fashion (3-0) in the last 16. They also benefit from being on the other side of the draw, as do Switzerland and Turkey, who will think they too have a better chance of reaching the final than they could have expected.

Anything can happen in football, that’s the fun of it, and we can’t wait to see how things play out in the remainder of Euro 2024.

QUIZ – Round of 16

What a round that was. Here’s some quiz questions from it to see if, like eight of the 16 participants in Germany, you can pass the test. Answers at the bottom of the page.

1. Following his successful penalty in Germany’s 2-0 win against Denmark, Kai Havertz has now scored four goals for the Nationalelf at UEFA European Championship finals. Name either of the two German players to score more in the competition.

2. Prior to their 4-1 win against Georgia in the round of 16, when was the last time Spain won a knockout match at the European Championship in normal time?

3. After their 1-0 win over Belgium, which France midfielder has now played the outright most matches in European Championship history without ever ending on the losing side?

4. At 41 years and 126 days old, Pepe became the oldest player to appear in a knockout match at a major tournament (Euros & World Cup) when he played for Portugal against Slovenia, surpassing which former England player?

5. Merih Demiral opened the scoring after just 57 seconds as Turkey beat Austria 2-1. It was the second-earliest goal in European Championship history, but can you remember who scored the earliest just a few weeks ago?

Opta Games

If you haven’t already, get involved with Opta Max (Euro 2024 Edition), where you can predict the Player of the Match in four featured games each round and earn points for your predictions. Those points could then earn you big cash prizes. Player performance scores are powered by our new metric, Opta Points.

Stat’s All Folks

You sent us in captions by the barrelful (well, we got a few) for the below momentum graphic from Georgia’s historic victory over Portugal.

Sadly, their journey at Euro 2024 is now over after their elimination at the hands of Spain, but the memories will last a lifetime, having reached the knockout stage at their first ever major tournament.

The best response came from Heather Butler, who suggested: “This is what it looks like when the collective will of an entire continent comes together at once.”

No offence to Portugal, of course, it was more about the underdog story of Georgia. Besides, Roberto Martínez and his men are into the quarter-finals, where they have a tasty clash with France.

Our next caption relates to Les Bleus, as we’re giving you Kylian Mbappé’s shot map from the tournament so far.

Send your suggestions to editors@theanalyst.com and your name and caption could be in the next edition of SVQ after the conclusion of the quarter-finals.