Who will win Copa America Group D? Look ahead to the decisive game with our Brazil vs Colombia prediction and preview.
Brazil vs Colombia Stats: The Key Insights
- Brazil are favourites here, winning 50.9% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
- Colombia are on a 25-match unbeaten run in all competitions, winning each of their first two Copa America 2024 matches.
- Brazil lost their last encounter with Colombia but have never been defeated by them twice in a row.
Colombia are like a “stone in the shoe” for Brazil at the Copa America, so says Bruno Guimarães.
Brazil face Colombia in their final Group D match on Tuesday. The Seleção, who drew 0-0 with Costa Rica but subsequently thrashed Paraguay 4-1, sit second in the group, two points behind Los Cafeteros, who have won both of their matches.
Indeed, Néstor Lorenzo’s team are on a 25-game unbeaten run in all competitions, but Guimarães is eager to put a stop to that exceptional form.
“Colombia are a stone in our shoe that we’re going to try to get out of our way in the next game,” said the Newcastle United midfielder. “They have a lot of players who can decide things individually, they’re a very physical team, good to play against.
“[But] this is the Brazilian national team shirt we are talking about. It’s going to be a great test for us, a great game that we want to win to finish first [in the group]. That’s what is required when you wear Brazil’s shirt.”
The Seleção, runners-up in 2021, have gone nine group stage matches without a defeat in the Copa America (six wins, three draws), their second-longest unbeaten streak in this phase, surpassed only by 10 unbeaten games between 1993 and 1999 (10 wins).
After seven matches without a win against Brazil in all competitions (three draws, four losses), Colombia defeated them in their last encounter and are seeking consecutive victories against the Seleção for the first time in their history.
Colombia are unlikely to be intimidated by their opponents either.
But while this Brazil squad might not be overflowing with superstars like past iterations, Real Madrid duo Vinícius Júnior and Rodrygo certainly add a sprinkle of stardust up top.
And Guimarães believes the pair are comparable to two Selecao greats in terms of their importance to the team.
“Vini and Rodrygo are our Ronaldo and Ronaldinho,” he said, as quoted by AS. “Back in those days, I loved Ronaldo, Ronaldinho and Kaka. We want to bring that back with Vini and Rodrygo.”
Colombia beat Brazil 2-1 in World Cup qualifying last year, with Luis Díaz scoring a brace.
And Lorenzo, whose side are already sure of their place in the quarter-finals, understands how much another victory over the nine-time Copa America champions would mean to the country.
“I know our fans are excited, and who am I to [question] people’s emotions,” he said.
“We are also excited, so let’s enjoy it.”
Players to Watch
Brazil: Vinícius Júnior
Vinícius will be the player Colombia have to keep under lock and key at Levi’s Stadium, with the talented attacker boasting the technical ability to leave defenders in knots and the decisiveness to be the difference in the penalty area.
He scored twice in Brazil’s rout of Paraguay, meaning that since the end of the 2022 World Cup, the Madrid star has netted three goals and provided three assists across all competitions and friendlies for his country.
Colombia: James Rodríguez
His days at the top in club football may be way behind him, but James Rodríguez remains an incredibly influential player for his national team. Assuming he’s not rested, he’ll likely have a say in whether Colombia can ultimately hold on to win the group.
He has recorded three assists already at this tournament, so a landmark could be in sights. After all, since 2011, only Lionel Messi has provided more assists in a single edition of the Copa America (five in 2021 and four in 2016).
Brazil vs Colombia Prediction
Despite Colombia’s excellent form, the Opta supercomputer is backing Brazil. They won this encounter 50.9% of the time in the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Nevertheless, that still works out at Colombia getting at least a point in 49.1% of the sims, and a draw would be enough for them to top the group. They were victorious in 25.5%.
Over the wider tournament, Brazil are second favourites with the supercomputer. They went on to lift the trophy in 20% of tournament sims, though that’s comfortably behind Argentina’s 38%. Colombia’s chances are rated at 9%, making them fourth likeliest to go all the way.
Brazil vs Colombia Squads
Brazil
Alisson Becker, Bento, Rafael, Beraldo, Bremer, Danilo, Éder Militão, Gabriel Magalhães, Guilherme Arana, Marquinhos, Wendell, Yan Couto, Andreas Pereira, Bruno Guimarães, Douglas Luiz, Éderson, João Gomes, Lucas Paquetá, Endrick, Evanilson, Gabriel Martinelli, Pepê, Raphinha, Rodrygo, Savinho, Vinícius Júnior.
Head coach: Dorival Júnior
Colombia
Álvaro Montero, Camilo Vargas, David Ospina, Carlos Cuesta, Daniel Muñoz, Davinson Sánchez, Deiver Machado, Jhon Lucumí, Johan Mojica, Santiago Arias, Yerry Mina, James Rodríguez, Jefferson Lerma, Jhon Arias, Jorge Carrascal, Juan Fernando Quintero, Kevin Castaño, Mateus Uribe, Richard Ríos, Yáser Asprilla, Jhon Córdoba, Jhon Durán, Luis Díaz, Luis Sinisterra, Miguel Borja, Rafael Borré.
Head coach: Néstor Lorenzo
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